Pre match trade Man City v. Sunderland

Lay Man C @ 1.25 to steal one tick. I placed a, for me, massive lay of €500 at 1.25 because the market seemed quite stable at 1.25-1.26 and not with a huge amount of juice which is not usually the case. There are about €1000 in the queue at 1.26 and mine should be somewhere in there. Should not be impossible to get on and win an easy €4.50

Also got one trade on WHU v. WBA where I backed the Hammers at 1.88 and got half my amount out at 1.86. Looking to get the rest taken at 1.88 to win €1 or so.

UPDATE: Out on both markets for a total win of €5 to end 2014. Times to get matched on these high profile, low odds markets are quite long. From first lay bet on City it took 25h to get matched and from the first back bet on City it took another 26h to trade out. This is why I usually avoid these markets but liquidity was unusually low, perhaps with the new year and everything but now it's a sealed win.

Kelly bet Avellino v. Brescia

Back (1) @ 2.20 10:-

UPDATE: 2-0

Pre match trade Rio Ave v. Belenenses

Terrible one so far. Placed a lay for Rio Ave @ 1.92 which was taken quickly and the match started trading in the 1.88 range and it looked like it would drop further. Placed a back at 1.88 to get out at 1.85 or thereabouts and then it just skyrocketed to 2.02 to leave me with a very big red. I haven't closed out the trade yet and will monitor it during the day to see what I can save.

UPDATE: At the worst time today I could cash out a €19 loss but eventually after lots of trading back and forth it ended with a €10 loss. Still very bad but much better.

Kelly bet Sampdoria v. Udinese

Back (1) @ 1.78 5:-

UPDATE: 2-2

Pre match trade Bochum v. Erzgebirge Aue

German 2nd division. Home team looked over priced @ 1.84. Traded out quickly @ avg. 1.81 to win 3Eur on all outcomes.

Could also steal about 1 Eur on Braga v. Ferreira. Didn't get much of my stake @ 1.81 taken.

Kelly bet Ajaccio v. Creteil

Back (1) @ 2.05 10:-

UPDATE: 2-0

Follow my Kelly spreadsheet here

Pre match trades

Will win €1 each on Blackburn and Swindon today. Not exactly according to plan but it's green numbers.

Pre match trade - Celta v. Almeria

It's the same case here really as the Napoli match from the last post. Celta lost five in a row, four in the league and one cup match. Almeria are not great by any means but I think oddsmakers are giving them too little credit and are overestimating Celta. I got some money matched on the lay side at 1.54, not my full stake unfortunately but about €100 which is decent enough. Will try buying it back at 1.58. Already some money taken there so it's moving in the right direction from what it looks like.

UPDATE: According to plan I'm out @ 1.58 €2.50

Pre match trade - Napoli v. Parma

I'm laying Napoli @ avg 1.35. They have had some trouble winning matches lately. In the league they have drawn four and lost one of their last five matches. Parma is a poor team, no doubt about that but 1.35 is still very low odds implying 74% chance for a home win. I don't accept that with Napoli's recent form. I hope to see odds in the high 1.30's before kick off on Thursday evening.

UPDATE: Placed a back @ 1.36, market seems kind of sluggish so I hope to steal one tick and be done with it.

UPDATE: Out @ 1.35 looked like it was trading back down. Much action at 35 almost none at 36. Don't lose money!

Pre match trade Creteil v. Arles

Backed Creteil @ 2.12 and was probably the last matched at this price before it went south so that's nice. I was going to close the bet unmatched earlier today but found that I was not only matched but able to immidiately trade out €3.5 so that's nice.

Pre match trade Brighton v. Millwall

Laying Brighton @ 2.0

Both teams quite poor but I think Brighton is given slightly too much credit. Will start buying back at 2.04.

UPDATE: Got something out @ 2.04 and then at 2.08 and 2.10 AVG @ 2.08 to win €5

Kelly bet St. Etienne v. Lyon

Back (2) @ 2,12 15:-

UPDATE: 2-3 Lyon scored the winning goal in the 94'th minute but that's good enough. :)

Pre match trade Rennes v. Montpellier

Don't understand why Rennes is priced above evens. Much better team and Montpellier have been bad on the road. Got on @ 2.10 and will trade out around evens. Should be a good one if it works all the way. 

UPDATE: Quicker than I thought. Might be an indication that I cashed in too early. Out at 2.02 to win €6.50

Pre match Trade Cardiff v. Rotherham

Cardiff the better team. Got on them on Thursday @ avg odds 1.95. Think they should trade in the low 1.90's before kick off. Starting to sell off @ 1.92.

UPDATE: Done @ 1.92 to win €3, that's almost €10 in total for today. 

Pre match trade Norwich v. Reading

Lay Norwich @ 1.7 - I think the home team is too short here. Norwich only have one win from the last five and won only 3 games at home all season, drawing 5. Reading are not great on the road but 1.7 is still giving the Canaries too much credit imo.

Pre match trades

Swansea v. Crystal Palace - Lay Swansea @ 1,82
I don't think that Swansea deserve to be a 55% favorite. Swansea are not all that great and CP are no whipping boys.

Update: Selling off at 1.84-1.85. I had hoped for a bigger drift but it's something. 

Kidderminster v. Wrexham - Back Kidderminster @ 2.20
Home team in good form. Wrexham haven't won for five matches. Should be moved closer to 2.10 or hopefully even lower tomorrow.

Update: Sold off some at 2.14 will try some more at 2.1. Looking quite good. 

Update2: Out at 2.10 which was slightly too soon. Trading at 2.04 now. Still €7 in the bank.

 Macclesfield v. Torquay - Lay Torquay @ 2.50
Dunno what the odds makers are going on about here. Macclesfield are undefeated for their last 5 matches and with HFA. They are P4 in the league and have not lost at home all season. Torquay P10, playing away. They did beat Barnet away a few rounds ago but followed it up with two less than impressive draws. I would price this the other way around.

Update: Started selling off Torquay at 2.6 in small steps should it go higher.

Update2: Gone totally mad it's down to 2.30 now, probably Macclesfield has collective bird-flu or something. I got some sold at 2.6 which kind of saves my day but I had to sell a bit at 3.36 and I will be €5 down on this one. 

Pre match trades

This time I seem to have found everything moving in the wrong direction with pin point accuracy.

Plymouth v. Portsmouth - Back (1) @ 2.26: Plymouth are P6 with a 6-1-1 home record and 3-2-0 from their last five games. A 1-1 away draw to Burton is very acceptable. Portsmouth had a few tough matches losing to Shrewsbury and Bury and their wins v. Carlisle and Stevenege are expected. They are 2-1-2 last five, and 1-3-4 on the road this season. A fairly weak away team playing a very strong home team. I'd expect odds closer to 2.15 than 2.30 in a match like this. Market seems to think otherwise atm, but it could correct itself when the big money comes in tomorrow. Still low volumes.

UPDATE: Well it bounced back down to 2.26 and I opted out. +-0 from this trade.

Coventry v. Notts Co - Lay (1) @ 2.16: Coventry are 1-1-3 from their last five. P19 in the league table. Decent home record 4-2-2. Notts lost to Walsall last match, which was unfortunate but won their previous 4. They are undefeated on the road this season boasting 4 wins and 3 draws. I see no reason why a weak team like Coventry should give Notts their first away loss and expected odds closer to 2.30, market again thought otherwise.

UPDATE: Had a chance to get out at 2.14 and took it. I'll get a small €-1,50 loss from this market. Could have been alot worse!

Lesson learned. Don't enter small markets too soon. Don't panic when low volumes of money push the market the wrong way. See it as an opportunity to buy.

Pre match Kidderminster v. Aldershot

Backed the home team last night at 2.22. Sold it at 2.12 this morning for 6 Eur profit.

Pre match trade Grimsby v. Halifax

These mid week games with few bigger teams in action can provide opportunities in the smaller leagues. In this case English Conference Premier (5th division). I identified three games I wanted to trade but only got matched on  my desired price in this one.

Backed Grimsby @ 2.12 and about to trade out with avg. odds 2.03 for a €6.5 profit. I already sold off half my liability at 2.06 and the rest of it is slowly getting taken at 2.00. Good one today.

Late pre match trade Nacional v. Benfica

Found a good opportunity in the Portuguese league earlier tonight. Rather solid support level at 1.60 and even for a class team like Benfica that's on the low side for an away game. Most of all though this was a technical analysis of how the market had moved. Placed a lay at 1.61 and cashed out at 1.68 for a €9 win. Just as last time the trade is shown in Swedish Krona.

Late pre match trade Fiorentina v. PAOK

Good support level at 1.54 for Fiorentina. Could lay it twice for €300 each time and cash out at 1.55 the first time and 1.56 the second time. Profit close to €6

Picture below shows the trade in Swedish Krona.

Pre match trade Spezia v. Crotone

Backing the home team to win at 2.12. Looks like value to me. Should trade closer to evens tomorrow if I called it right.

UPDATE: Not moving. Out at 2.12

Pre match trade Beira-Mar v. Trofense

Solid mid-table team v. the worst team in the league.

Back Beira-Mar @ 1.97

UPDATE: Out too early again. At 1.93 for a 3 EUR win.

Pre match trade Fulham v. Blackpool

Fulham are certainly not setting the world on fire but Blackpool are terrible. They have bagged 6 points from 15 games, losing 11 of them. I'd suspect some backers will like Fulham with the argument that they might not be great but surely much much better than Blackpool.

Back (1) @ 1.60

Live trade Zaragoza v. Tenerife

Did this one last night. Didn't have time to post then.

Layed Zaragoza for 50:- @ 2.24 before kick off and sold off when Tenerife scored an early goal. €2 profit.

Pre match Leeds v. Charlton

Really quick one. Layed Leeds @ 2.34 and  sold of at 2.38 almost immidiately.

€2 profit.

Live trade Torpedo Moscow v. Arsenal Tula

Drift on the home team pre match. Lay Torpedo for 50 @ 2.24.

Gradually sold off my position up to 2.70 30 minutes into the match.

Win 5.50:-

Pre match trades

Brighton v. Wigan - Lay (1) @ 2.36 Brighton didn't win any of their last five games. Wigan didn't lose any of theirs. Combined they have played 7 draws from the last 10 games. Wigan does have poor away stats this season but beat Derby 1-2 in their last match on the road. Can't quite see why odds shouldn't be quite a lot closer here. Expect Brighton to trade over 2.40 at some point.

UPDATE: Market liked Brighton. Made a double trade where I first placed a lay lower @ 2.30 which was taken and then traded off some juice at 2.34 which further reduced my liability. In the end I had to take a €-0.5 loss selling of my last position at 2.30.

Birmingham v. Waford - Back (2) @ 2.28 Watford are at the top of the table. Birmingham did well to rebound with a goal less draw v. Wolves after a shocking 0-8 defeat at home in the hands of Bournemouth. Watford won the last 4 H-H and draws away to fellow top team Middlesbrough and and the strong home side of Nottingham are acceptable. Birmingham picked up only five points at home this season and when Watford comes to visit they are likely to take another loss. I'm looking to cash out in the low 2.20's.

UPDATE: Seemed to go the wrong way. Out at the same price.

Kelly bet Mönchengladbach v. Hoffenheim

Back (1) @ 1.90 5:-

UPDATE: Home win 3-1 

Pre match trades

Hamilton v. Partick - Back (1) @ 1.90
UPDATE: Miscalculation here. For some reason I'm yet to understand table leaders Hamilton playing at home v. P9 placed Partick traded up quite alot from 1.90 which seemed generous to start with. Hamilton 3-1-1 from the last 5 games and at home this season. Partick is 1-1-3 and only managed one draw on the road all season. It's strictly not part of the trading strategy but I'm so convinced Hamilton will win that I will cash out to leave all the red on X2 and +-0 on the home team. The difference is either -€18 on all selections or -€35 on X2 and it seems worth the bet somehow.
UPDATE2: Hamilton took an early 2-0 lead and I laid off some of my money but still left a bigger red on X2. Stupid as it turned out. The match ended 3-3. Lost €18 on this one. 


Dundee v. St. Mirren - Back (1) @ 1.88 UPDATE: Lay @ 1.87 to win €1
Rochdale v. Preston - Back (2) @ 2.48 UPDATE: Lay @ 2.50 to lose €1.50
Notts County v. Walsall - Back (1) @ 2.82 UPDATE: Lay @ 2.78 to win €2

Live Trades

Staying in France for some live trading.

Backing under 2.5 @ 1.71 for Creteil v. Sochaux UPDATE: Out at 1.44 after 20 min to win  €1
Backing Draw @ 3.30 for Troyes v. Orleans UPDATE: Odds didn't move after 20 min so out at 3.30.

Strategy

I think I've come up with a way to refine my strategy. So far it has worked really well for me and rendered some nice profits.

First of all I need to avoid the highest leagues in each country and the two highest leagues in England. I could make exceptions but generally it's difficult to find that extra value because there's so much information and money going into these markets and they tend to correct themselves pretty quickly and then start moving quite irrationally, suddenly going 10 points up or down for no apparent reason other than huge money entering the market at a particular side.

Over the last week my most profitable trades have been in  England League 1 and 2, French Ligue 2 and Italian Serie B. There's enough juice for my stakes to get matched with ease but not enough to attract the really big fish.

The thing is I don't know much about football and especially not in these leagues. The teams are really just names, form curves, H-H mixed up with some betting psychology. If you asked me I probably couldn't name a single player from any club in these four leagues. My edge as I have found it is that I seem to be pretty good at identifying what people (these casual punters) I've been talking about like to bet on and what they will dislike, and also what a reasonable price for that particular team would be.

It's worth going back a little to these casual punters. They are like people are the most. The like to place fairly small stake bets on teams that look good for the win, typically highly placed in form teams against pretty much any opposition and at pretty much any price. They don't care if they back at 1.90 or 1.80 if the are "sure" their team is going to win. They also tend to enter the market quite late and move the price in that direction, supply and demand. The difference between these guys and the pros operating the higher leagues is that the pros will not back a 1.90 team at 1.86 because that's not "value" and then the markets will not react the way I expect because I'm not that good at predicting exact odds. I might back a strong team at 1.85 expecting punters to drive it down to 1.80 on sheer volume but if there are to many sharp bettors pricing the match at 1.88 they will go and place big lays and drive the price up and my book red. These professionals don't operate the second and third leagues because there's not enough money for them to make. But there's enough money for me to do my part time, small fish, a little extra income from trading a few times a week.

Or to sum it up. I need to be smarter then the market I'm trading, not the smartest guy on Betfair, because I'm really not, and it doesn't matter a rats arse how much you know about football if you can read a market and predict what people will like or not. That's why I trade, not bet, except for my Kelly bets and they are based on technical analysis and comparing different bookie prices anyway.

Pre match Le Havre v. Arles

Le Havre have been solid at home this season 3-2-0 including a home win over table leaders Dijon. Arles are 1-0-4 for their last games and only managed two draws on the road this season. Again I put my hope to the casual punters to back the home team heavily on match day.

Back Le Havre @ 1.97

UPDATE: Doesn't seem to go anywhere. Trading just above my 1.97 which is annoying. Ill probably start selling off smaller amounts at 1.98 to reduce risk and still have something left if Mr market eventually decides to move in my favor.

UPDATE2: Finally moved! Sold off at 1.94 to secure a €2.5 profit for this trade. Had some luck getting a few Euros taken at 2.00 before the market moved south as well. 

Pre match Laval v. Tours

Laval undefeated at home although there have been lots of draws. Tours are at the bottom of the table and have lost all 6 away games this season in the French Ligue 2. There is reason to believe the casual punters will jump on Laval during the day.

Back Laval @ 1.94

UPDATE: Moved in the right direction now after a short trip north. Might establish a new support/resistance around 1.90.

UPDATE2: Got it all sold off at 1.90 to win €3 who ever wins.

Pre match Creteil v. Sochaux

Fine form for the away team. Very few losses. Surely 2.18 is too low for the home side. Atleast 2.26 expected.

Lay Creteil @ 2.18

UPDATE: Damn ut! Cashed it too soon. Market was ambivalent and I decided to go out at 2.24 to secure something. Then it shot off to 2.34. Earned EUR 3 though.

Pre match Bari v. Pescara & Frosione v. Varese

Backing the home teams. In form and hfa should attract some bettors and drive prices lower.

UPDATE1: Bari didn't move much out with 2 clicks and EUR 1,50

UPDATE2: Frosinone dropped 10 ticks from 1.98 to 1.88 EUR 6,5 to me :)

Pre match Leyton Orient v. Preston

PNE still in insanely good form and on a 7 game winning streak. O's coming from a 0-3 defeat to Port Vale. Expect the casual punters to back Preston heavily in the last few hours so better take a position today. Unsmart money enters tomorrow.

Back Preston @ 2.48

UPDATE: Lay Preston @ 2.40 Win Eur 6.00

Pre match trades

Celtic v. Astra Giurgiu: I'll be very honest with you. I've never heard of Astra Giurgiu but technically laying Celtic at 1.66 looked like a very good bet. Looking at it from a strictly technical perspective it should bounce up to just over 1.70 or a little bit more. UPDATE: Settled for 1.67 and €1.

Estoril v. Dinamo Moscow: Technical analysis again. Laying Dinamo at 2.08 looks like a good trade.
UPDATE: Turned the wrong way. Got back out at 2.08.

Sheffield W v. Norwich: Two teams in pretty poor form. No reason to have Sheffield this big underdog playing at home. Backed them at 3.30.

UPDATE: Got some more backed at 3.40 then had to get out at 3.35. Cost me €0.50.

Pre match Preston v. Fleetwood

Preston should be bigger favorites imo. 1.65 is a better price for this insanely in form team.

Backed Preston at 1.69

UPDATE: odds moved slightly against me. Backing PNE again at 1.74. Hope I get matched. Still convinced Preston will trade lower.

UPDATE2: They did but I didn't have the patience for various reasons. Got out at 1.69 for a fairly decent €2 profit given the circumstances.

Pre match Middlesbrough v. Watford

I think Middlesbrough is given too much credit in the early markets. Watford are 2nd in the league table and haven't lost in their last 5 games 2W 3D 0L. I see no reason why Middlesbrough should trade just above evens. IMO they are more of a 2.15-2.20 favorite in this match.

I'm laying Middlesbrough @ 2,06.

UPDATE: out at 2.08 to win 1 EUR.

Pre match trade Robredo v. Lu

Got matched at 1.48 on Robredo, that's about where odds are now as well so nothing much to add. Will try to get on at 1.50 as well and then close out during the afternoon. This is the last match at Valencia today so there's plenty of time.

UPDATE: Got some money taken at 1.50. Cashed out at 1.47. Little less than I hoped but ok... 1 euro 50.

Pre-match trade Gabashvili v. Golubev

Backing Gabashvili for a trade @ 1.70. I would expect odds to drop atleast 5 ticks before start.

UPDATE: Not matched at 1.65 during the night. Very small amount was taken but not mine. Placed a new lay at 1.69.

UPDATE 2: most of it taken at 1.69. Some at 1.71. I win 10 cents. Then odds drifted so lucky this time.

Kelly games

Rotherham v. Fulham (1) 5:- @ 2,15 RESULT: 3-3 -5:-
Wolves v. Middlesbrough (1) 5:- @ 2,40 RESULT: 2-0 +7:-
Crewe v. Peterborough (2) 8:- @ 1,81 RESULT 0-1 -8:-

Live trade

Charlton v. Bolton (X) 3,25 UPDATE: Out after about 15 minutes. Odds had not moved.
Wigan v. Millwall (lay 1) 2,06 UPDATE: Out after about 15 minutes with +2:-
Swindon v. Rochdale (lay 1) 2,24 UPDATE: Out after 25 minutes with +2:-

Had hoped the odds would move a little more but it's ok. Still learning.

CSKA v. Man City

Again a huge drift on the favorites (Man C) right before kick off. I'll place a lay bet on the English and hope to cash out higher. O/U markets suggest a high scoring affair so let's hope for a quick home goal.

CSKA v. Man C lay (2) @ 1,85

UPDATE: Odds dropped to 1.79 on Man C first 10 minutes with the score at 0-0. I'm out. -1:-

Pre-match Luton v. Dag & Red

Backed Luton yesterday at 1.91. Cashout today at 1.85. + 5 euros.

Citadella v. Entella

Strong drift on the home team about 30 mins before kick off suggests that there could be trouble ahead. No significant movements in over/under markets suggest a low scoring draw or away win.

I lay Citaldella @ 2,36 at kick off.

UPDATE: Entella scored in the 17th minute and I cash out 20:- from a 35:- stake. Not bad. :)

Kelly match Falkenberg v. Helsingborg

Falkenberg v. Helsingborg (1) 5:- @ 2,37

RESULT: 2-0 +6,85:-

Weekly update

Another fairly uneventful trading week and still very much the opposite to what usually happens. Results have been somewhat reversed from the normal pattern of many small wins destroyed by one or two bigger losses. This week I had two fairly large wins, but several small losses to effectively even out my winnings. Net result this week, again around +-0.

Kelly has been coming in nicely. The win on Spezia at good odds did the bankroll much good and even put it in green territory. Norrköping also beat Gefle to add to the joy. Kelly is now up 11%.

Pre match trade - Elche v. Sevilla

Sevilla clearly better team. Odds first moved down and then rapidly up on Sevilla again. Backed at 2.06 and a quick out at 2.04 to secure 20:- (SEK) ~ €2

Paderborn v. Eintracht Frankfurt

Huge drift on the home team last 30 minutes. Overs/Unders stable. I'm laying Paderborn. Odds movements suggest draw or away victory with less than 2 goals.

Out after 30:- min. Still 0-0 but odds didn't move much at all +1:-

Kelly Match Gefle v. Norrköping

Busy day. Poor weather means lots of time to check out matches.

Gefle - Norrköping (2) 15:- @ 2,50

RESULT: 1-2  +22,5:-

Videoton v. Debrecen

Odds movements suggest home team could face a tougher task than expected. I'll lay at 2.00 before kick off.

UPDATE: Had to read a book to my daughter and closed the trade with a 1:- profit.

Trabzonspor v Mersin & Atalanta v Parma

Mina analyser av oddsrörelserna före match på de här båda kamperna säger att den turkiska matchen bör bli en målrik hemmaseger. Backar därför med små insatser hemmalaget och över 2.5 och hoppas på ett ganska tidigt ledningsmål för Trabzonspor.

Atalanta mot Parma bör bli en ganska avvaktande tillställning mellan två formsvaga lag. Backar krysset och hoppas att det fortfarande står noll noll efter 20-25 minuter eller så.

Stängde tidigt överspelet på Trabzonspor. Det gick snabbt norrut och resultatet blev -10:-
Atalanta har fortfarande i 60e minuten 0-0 och jag har cashat in en vinst. Först en liten summa efter 22 minuter och jag tog ytterligare en kort position i 50e som avvecklades i 55e. Total vinst 5:-
Trabzonspor gjorde 1-0 i 54e varvid jag kunde casha in 13:-.

Totalt för livetraden idag  +8:- vilket är ytterligt patetiskt men just nu är det lärpengar för det här är helt nya marker för mig.

UPDATE: Trabzonspor won 3-1 so odds movement were totally correct pre-match.
Atalanta won 1-0 after a '90 minute goal.

Kelly-match

I'll try to be more frequent with match updates. What I trade and what I include in my Kelly experiment.

Today's match is:
Italian Serie B Spezia v. Catania (1) 11:- @ 2.60

Result: W 3-0

A small update

Kelly is performing under expectations. Down 2.5% so far. Not a huge amount of games but I thought I would do better.

Trading has been uneventful. Last weeks ended in +-0 results. This one has started about the same way with some small losses and some equally small wins. I have a few good ideas for the weekend soccer matches but I thought that last week as well and ended up burning all my tennis profits from early in the week.

W29

After a few weeks off it's time for a trading report again. First week back on the job netted a €12 profit which is quite on average what I should gain. No major dramas really.

The Kelly project has started off inconclusive. I'm currently with a 2% negative ROI. Won 50% of my bets at 2.42 so I'm considering if the staking method is at fault. With even stakes I would be up. I'll give this staking method another week or two and then I'll evaluate.

Introducing the Kelly Project

Over the last few weeks I haven't been very active, not on the blog, not trading odds. I haven't been sleeping my days away rather researching a new project I find quite interesting. I'll call it the "Kelly Project" after mathematician John Kelly who formulated a theory on how bettors should manage their bankrolls. A staking theory where the amount wagered is calculated from the suggested edge the bettor thinks he has over the market. Other people have explained this better and I have tried this in the past. The only problem is that even if I believe I know a thing or two about odds after a few years of trading on Betfair I haven't been sure enough of my edge. Which is what I have been researching.

Betfair claims to have the most effective betting market and Pinnacle claims to have the sharpest bettors tuning in their odds. That means that their odds should be as close to the real possibility of an event to occur as one could ever hope to get. If they say odds on team A are 1,60 I should be fairly sure the probability of team A to win should be 62.5%. This is where Kelly come in. From my research I've noticed that fairly frequently other more "casual" bookies don't adjust their odds enough, or fast enough when markets move. If team A starts a 1.70 favorite most bookies will end up around 1.70. In the final hours before kick off lots of money enters the market and can distort odds. Pinny and Betfair usually adjust very quickly and team A could very well start a 1.60 favorite while some bookies still offer 1.70. There's the edge the Kelly formula needs. In this (rather extreme) case my edge is 7% and if my bankroll is 500 I should bet 10% of my bankroll on this selection. This will be larger or smaller depending on the edge I believe I have. So in theory I should be able to use this staking method and value odds to beat the bookies.

I've decided to risk 500SEK (€55) to try out this theory. If it works it works if it doesn't it's no big loss. And to be honest I've taken some money from the bookies' new account/first deposit bonuses over the last weeks so actually they are paying for this experiment themselves. For this I'm very grateful. :)

I'll report back how it works out and I will be back to odds trading this week as well. Already secured €5 on some Tuesday League One matches.

W.28

Another very low key week for me. The timing with all the tournaments in the US is troublesome for my way of trading. Usually there's nothing in the markets when I go to bed. And when I get up they're all settled in and there's not much movement left in them, with a few exceptions of course but on the whole it's much better when matches are played in Europe or Asia. Opening odds are out when I go to bed (Europe) and I can take positions over night. Or during the day (Asia) and I can take and close positions during waking hours. Two more weeks of USO and they should be headed back to this side which will make things easier. Also a few more weeks should give me a decent idea of the European football leagues. As for now it's another €5 from two trades early in the week.

w.27

A tad late but here's last week's report. It wasn't much to be honest. I got back to work after the holidays and I haven't really had much time to trade. Still it was mostly successful even if volumes were low. A €7 profit for the week was the result of my efforts and that also makes it a new ATH. Yay! Or something...

w26

Not much happened this week. I started work again which took some time and focus away from trading. I also just didn't get matched much which is kind of frustrating when you put in the time. Usual case this week: I find a good match to trade and decide I want to bet at 1.45 when market is fresh and looks something like back (a tiny amount) at 1.38 and lay 1.46. Then someone places a bet before me at 1.44. I decide to cut down to 1.43. When I get back to the computer money is matched at 1.42 and market is trading at 1.35. Similar things happened alot to me this week and that why all I have to say is that I made a mere €5 this week. Hopefully better luck next week. In a few weeks time I should be able to trade the English League Championship which is my favorite league to trade. Just need a little more data on the teams this year, how they are priced, how they perform etc. Until then I'll have to do with Swedish football and Tennis.

Berdych & Radwanska

-1 euro on the Czech after a good save after a miscalculation. Layed TB at 1.51 v. Lopez. He struggled v. Lu and I thought the market would punish him. Stop loss at 1.49 back at 1.49 lay at 1.47.

Lay bet on aRad 1.68 small stake taken v. Lisicki out at 1.77. Shame I couldn't get more money matched.

Chardy - Tsonga

First big win this week. €6 on this match. Placed a lay bet on Tsonga last night at 1.32. Odds on Tsonga drifted v. Vasselin (who he owned 7-0 in the HH) prior to the R1 match and I had to take a small loss on the market. Obviously Chardy is a tougher opponent and Tsonga leads a narrow 2-1 in the HH. Starting odds (1.31) were roughly the same where the market turned for the Vasselin match. Odds had to rise. All of it were taken during the night and market remained stable back 1.32 - lay 1.33. I decided to leave it. Confident as I was and only a small amount was traded, most of it was my money actually. I placed a back bet at 1.36 which seemed to be a fairer price and right before lunch it was all taken.

Yesterday I had a small win on Simon v. Thiem and a small live trade win on Williams v. Pavlyuchenkova.

W25

It could have been much worse. I started the week with a bad loss on Nieminen - Gabashvili and a slightly less bad but still bad enough loss on Becker v. Kavcic. Together that put me about €30 back on Monday and it was an uphill battle for the rest of the week.

In the end it turned out to be a quite moderate €6 loss. It's not good but still a very decent recovery. I seem to get around €20 positive a week and that's a fairly constant number. Thing is I need to stop having these bad matches where I lose big. I've tried to cut my losses earlier to avoid making a bad trade into a really bad one. However in both the Nieminen match and the Becker one I couldn't get matched. The market just moved past me and very small amounts were traded at the side I needed.

So far this week I've secured €1 on Göteborg v. AIK and €1.50 on Cibulkova. Matched on Gulbis and Tsonga but still not closed out the trades.

Kitzbühel final

Very strange market this one. Got away on top this time but I was headed for another bad loss this weekend. Before the match, that is yesterday evening before odds were published I had Goffin as a small favorite for the title. He's on an insane roll of wins, three ch-titles in a row and reached the final  for the loss of only one set. Thiem, the home player is good, is promising but is also inconsistent and very very young. Both are playing their first ATP-finals but Goffin is without a doubt the more experienced player and very used to winning after bagging 19 wins in a row.

Surprised to see markets open with Thiem a high 1.70 favorite and I placed a lay bet on him at 1.81 which was taken quickly. Went to bed fairly content that I could wake up and check out a nice profit when markets should have sorted themselves out and drifted out atleast up to evens.

Woke up to see Thiem a 1.73 favorite and €8 red on both players. *sigh*

I decided to red out before breakfast, swallow the loss and get on with it. Ate, sat down to see how the night matches from the US of A turned out and was very  surprised to see Thiem at 1.86. Could literally not believe my eyes. Somehow Thiem moved 13 ticks north in about 30 minutes before 8am a Saturday morning.

Fired up my trading program to see what the heck was going on. Soon noticed odds were bouncing wildly on high volumes between 1.83 and 1.93. Bookies had not moved their odds. Obviously this was my chance to cut some losses. I managed three quick trades each shaving off about €3 from my debt on the market and stopped when the market turned green on me. €2 profit on this one. Soon after I left the market it calmed down. Odds slowly returned to the mid 1.70's and stayed there until the match started. Goffin won in three sets.

Wednesday

3 Euros on Radwanska. 6.5 on Owner. Pennies on the WTA live markets. About 10 EUR today, that's atleast something.

Wednesday

3 Euros on Radwanska. 6.5 on Owner. Pennies on the WTA live markets. About 10 EUR today, that's atleast something.

Tuesday Rage

Good last week and now it's up hill again. Can't seem to catch a break even when I'm right. So here's the story. Sunday night. I'm checking the markets. Nieminen looks good v. Gabashvili. Healthy 3-0 in the hh. Niemo coming from a ch-final where he lost to insanely in form Goffin. No shame in that. Gabashvili chronically unreliable especially in early rounds. Ok he did some damage in Umag and beat Båstad finalist Sousa on the way to a QF-exit v. Cuevas. Still Niemo should be a healthy fav in my book. Backed him where odds were in the low 1.70s. Noticed over night that odds seem to drift away on Niemo for no apparent reason. So i tried a stop loss in the high 1.70's. Had about 1/4 of my stake taken then it raced upwards again. Had about 1/4 of the remaining stake taken in the mid 1.80's. Getting expensive here! Had to close it out in the high 1.80's to take a €20 loss. Only to see Niemo win the match in straight sets 64 64. Just as I predicted he would. Somehow it would have been easier to take it if Gabashvili had crushed Niemo with a 63 61 scoreline or so. Atleast then I was wrong and paid the price. This just pisses me off.

w.24

So after two bad weeks with red digits Sunday evening I have profits to report. A quite solid one of these in the bank this week.

 

That brings up a new ATH on the Betfair account. €835.

Saturday

Yesterday was mixed fortunes. I won €3 on Cilic v. Rosol and lost the same ammount on Robredo v. Carreno-Busta. Then I had a live trade on Fognini v. Coric and got myself a €1 pay check laying Coric at the right time before he got broken back in the second set.

I also had €0.50 on both WTA semi finals in Baku.

Best trade this week is Fognini v. Cuevas. The Fog didn't look great last night but got the job done. Cuevas has looked great for a long time. Odds 1.62 on the Italian looked like an obvious lay and I could sell evertything back at 1.65 for a €5 win. Then the market continued up so I missed out on some profit there but better safe than sorry. This is looking like a good week so far and I don't want to spoil it again with a reckless weekend trade like last week.

Wednesday

Closed a small win on Mladenovic v. Vekic. Backed the Frenchwoman at 1.76 and hoped to get out at low 70's. That failed and I didn't get my full stake take either so that's €1.

I'm on Schiavone at 1.31 v. Glushko. Not my full stake but something like €110. Trying to get out at 1.27. Market very inactive, match is played tomorrow but highest odds with bookies are now down to 1.25 so I'm not too worried about low activity.

Looks like I have to take a small loss on Cirstea v. Voegele. I backed Cirstea at 1.61. She's the higher ranked player, leads the h-h 4-0 and Voegele is not playing that well atm. In the previous matches Cirstea never started higher than 1.54 favorite. Still market seems to have decided to go a few ticks up so I'll try to activate a stop loss here at 1.63 and get out of the trade with as small red as possible.

Also trying to back Isner v. Ginepri. The tall one loves Atlanta and should cruise in this one. I've got a big back bet in the low 1.20  and I believe the market should trade below 1.20 before the match tomorrow.

(Update) Green on Schiavone €4.

Cuevas v. Delic

Another good trade in the making. That's two this week. I noticed odds on the Cuevas v. Delic market had slightly come in from 1.29 to 1.28. Avg bookies odds at 1.25. Betfair 1.30. That's normally a little too close for me but I felt there would be strong support for Cuevas who won the title in Båstad and then qualified for the md in Umag without dropping a set. Luckily had my full €300 stake taken at 1.31 and immediately placed a lay bet at 1.29. Almost all taken by now and it should be a win in the €5 region on both players.

w. 23

Red digits for the second week in a row. Had a terrible trading weekend with three quite massive losses to erase all hard work and then some. Got the Båstad WTA final right but wrong. I had Barthel as a favorite and backed her at 1.70 and she went on to win the title v. Scheepers in straight sets. Problem was market traded Barthel all the way up to 1.80 and beyond so I had to get out with a pretty bad loss there.

Then I have to blame Norway for stealing money off their poorer brothers in the east. I liked Strömsgodset to beat Vålerenga (they didn't) because they are a very strong home team. Had to get out with €6 red on both teams. Then I also liked Odd to beat Haugesund (again they didn't) and I lost €8. Atleast the weekend ended with some positives. I bet on Hammarby to beat Öster in the Swedish second division. Backed the home team at 1.56 and traded out just before kick off at 1.52 to secure €5.

When I sum things up I was €-6 this week and the live trading contributed with about €4 so it could have been even worse. Pre match trading didn't work at all last week. But you can't win them all. I've already secured my first €5 this week on Gilles Simon v. Pablo Andujar. Match played tomorrow. Backed Simon at 1.70 last night. Traded out 1.65 this morning. Money while I sleep. I like it.

Example of live trading strategy

I identified the match Nara v. Vinci as a good candidate to do my live trading strategy I wrote about this morning. Nara a quite week server. Vinci a good returner who will get everything back, often with interest. Surprisingly Vinci drifted alot pre match from 1.45ish to 1.57 at match start. Nara served first. I backed Vinci at said price for €7.50 as you see, small stakes. Vinci broke immidiately and indeed moved on to bagel Nara in the first set. I got out after the first game though. Layed at 1.28 and secured €1.75 on both girls. Was active in the market for about 1 minute.

Update

Lots of things and nothing at all going on. I'm having a frustrating week. Not really making losses just not getting enough wins. Typical trade this week: I back player A at 1.60. Bookies offer 1.54. I place a lay bet at 1.56. Doesn't get matched. Bookies raise odds to 1.59. I quickly get out at 1.60. Soon after odds drop to 1.52 and betfair trade at 1.55. Annoying to say the least. On the other hand a few times the odds continued to drift and not getting out would have cased a loss.

I've also been experimenting with live trading. I've said before I'm not very good at it but I want to learn so I've been thinking about what I have been doing and why its not working. Basically I've found a random atp match. Watched a few games to see who's hot and who's not. Then backed the "hot" player while serving expecting a hold and then a break. Problem: market expects this to happen and if it does the market doesn't move much. If it doesn't happen, even if both players continue to hold odds drift and I go red. Even worse, my player face a bp or just go to 0-15 or 30-30 in a service game and I go big red.

Possible solution: pick games more carefully. Back a strong returner recieving from a weak server. Breaks will be fairly frequent and odds will move quite much if my player breaks. If the server holds I can red out and try again next service game.

Risk: There is no break. Its unlikely to happen that a weak server will hold six times in a row vs a strong returner but it can happen. Then I will be red. So far I've been trying this in wta games where breaks are very frequent. I'm more green than red so far but its been small stakes and few matches but I feel potential in the strategy.

That said my main focus will still be pre match.

w22

Sadly I have to report my second losing week. It started off badly. Mid week I thought I'd make it a good week anyway and then it ended in disaster. I completely misread the Båstad final Cuevas v. Sousa and backed the higher ranked Portuguese at evens. Then Cuevas steamed seriously 30 ticks in like four hours and went on to win the match 62 61. Clearly I was the idiot and paid for it. Thanks to some good mid week results the loss only accumulated to €5.

Cuevas v. Lindell, Johnson v. Ito

The young Swede did well to beat Cervantes in R1 although that had more to do with the terrible level of play from the Spaniard than supreme class from Lindell. For example Cervantes served 8 double faults in 9 service games. Lindell played the way one can expect from a player ranked outside the top 400. Mixing good shots with quite simple errors, in general though he was much more consistent and patient than Cervantes and it paid off.

Cuevas is a whole different beast. He's quickly coming back into the top 100 after solid results on clay this year and he was once a top 50 player. As a Swede I hope I'm proven wrong and that Lindell can cause another upset but I think it's time for a reality check. I could back Cuevas at a market high 1.17 last night and traded out at 1.14 for a €8 win.

I also backed the in form American Steve Johnson at 1.44 last night to beat Ito of Japan. Had part of my lay taken at 1.37 and is waiting to close out the rest of the trade. Should be a win of over €10 if I can get the rest of my lay taken at 1.37. I've got until 5 pm so I can wait.

Rain interrupted play all day in Stuttgart and I could shave off €2 from my loss on Gimeno v. Gojowczyk with a quick scalp. Still a bad loss for me though.

Amends

Well I know the term "win back your losses" doesn't exist but still it's nice to get some winning trades done so soon after a terrible one.

Got €4 on Suarez-Navarro v. Siegemund and €3 on Isner v. Odesnik. That's something to start this weeks recovery with.

Gojowczyk - Gimeno

Some rotten luck on this one. Normally Gimeno is a much superior clay court player compared to Gojowczyk who does a better job on quicker surfaces. He was good in Doha which is a quicker HC, won the Heibronn challenger which is also quick and advanced to QF at Halle beating Raonic in the process. As far as I can see he's never won a main draw ATP-match on clay.

Good bet on Gimeno then? Well apparently (if one should believe a post on Tennis Insight) Gimeno got married on Saturday so perhaps bettors think he'd either be hung over or mentally on a honeymoon, possibly both and markets raced away way above where I bet on Gimeno. Had to close out a €20 loss which will almost certainly make this a lost week where I'd be happy to get out with a break even.

W21

Quite a tidy week. I made a total of 7 trades which is quite few but that's how it is during the second week of a slam. All 7 trades were winners which is nice. Profit was not great but a fairly average €14. Bank is increasing and that's the important thing.

So far during this week I've already secured a €5 profit on Eriksson v. Lorenzi, €2 on Mayer v. Berrer and €0.5 on Berlocq v. Reister. I'm also active in the Gojowczyk v. Gimeno market but have yet to close the trade. Match is tomorrow so there is plenty of time.

Federer - Raonic

I tried to get matched on Federer at 1.45 and I did get some of my stake taken. Fed started a 1.31  favorite v. Wawrinka. Too low odds IMO and the match could have ended differently but from the second set there was clearly something wrong with Wawrinka and Fed won in four sets. Wawrinka is a better player than Raonic but the Canadian's serve is really dangerous on the grass. Could be a few points here and there in the breakers that decide this match and those kinds of matches where a superior player (Federer) is up against a very big server with poorish return game (Raonic) are usually priced in the mid 1.30's. I like a margin for error so I came up with 1.45 as a price I considered both safe and possible to get matched. Acutally my €45 are the highest traded bets at this market with some margin. Market seems to like 1.39-1.40 so I got 3-4% higher odds and that is about what one can expect to have matched in this kind of well analyzed match. That's why it's so difficult to find the line between not getting matched, getting matched for a winning trade and getting matched for a losing trade. It's really just a few odds steps between the three possible outcomes of a placed bet. This one will earn €2 thanks to the low amount matched.

Raonic - Kyrgios

Surprise QF here. Probably most people believed Nadal would defeat the 19 year old Nick Kyrgios from Australia but they were proved wrong. However this gave me an opportunity to step in in the very early markets. I studied how markets priced the two players before this match during the tournament and found that Kyrgios should be given a slighly better chance that v. Gasquet (23%). 1/3 seemed a fair price and would give a line with Raonic (1.50) v. Kyrgios (3.00). As a very early market with lots of uncertainties I placed a very small bet on Raonic at 1.62, was matched, did something else and checked back 10 minutes later and greened out at €1.5 profit at 1.47. Found these odds to low because bookies had come up with their lines and were raising their prices on Raonic from low 1.40's so I placed slightly larger lay bet at the same price and once again greened out 10 minutes later at 1.51. Since it was all small stakes I only win €2.50 but this is one trade I feel quite proud about.

Looks like I've had a normal sized bet on Murray (v. Dimitrov) matched at 1.32 while typing. I'll place a lay bet at 1.31 because there is one heap of cash laying at 1.30 and I'd rather not mix it there. Hopefully that's another €2 when I wake up.

UPDATE: Yes, green on Murray.

Cautious week

Wise from the tough second slam week at the French I've been very cautious with my staking. Result? 0/3 bets matched. But really that is better than taking losses. Did get a decent one matched on Sunday for the Cilic v. Chardy match. Backed the Croat big at 1.40 and sold at 1.36 to net 8E50. Will get at it again tonight and see what I can do. But during the second week of slams it's difficult to get matched on "wrong" odds because markets are very efficient and well analyzed.

W20

Positive week but it should have been better. I had to take a quite big loss on Petkovic v. Bouchard yesterday. I simply underestimated how much the market loves the young Canadian. On paper they had similar form. Both were eliminated in the semis of the French. Petko had 3-0 HH going into the match. Bouchard slightly higher ranked and should be favored to win (she did in straights) but I surely did not have the market in the low to mid 1.40's. First odds from bookies opened at 1.53 which seemed low IMO. A lay bet at 1.55 was quickly taken and odds dropped down towards 1.50. When it broke under I thought - Well surely it can't go lower than this! This is a 1.60 favorite ffs! and I placed another lay bet at 1.49 which was also quickly taken and the market continued to go even lower. Bottomed out at 1.43-1.44  and then turned back up. I got out at 1.47 but lost over €12 on this market alone. Almost a full week's profits.

Still I got away with €8 for the week because of some Swedish football this afternoon. Not what I had hoped for but ok, it's another green week.

Wimbledon Thursday

Win 4 on Isner. Lose 4 on Vekic. Nothing more to add.

Wimbledon Wednesday

Matched on two trades again. Had my full €150 stake taken on Garcia (v. Lepchenko) at 1.95. I entered this market very early, before bookies had any odds to compare with. Just one or two of the first high margin bookies were up but their odds are so low they are not much to go on. Operating with a 8% margin there is much room for error in their lines. This is a more risky strategy but I felt quite confident that I had the match correctly valued with Garcia as a narrow favorite. The bet was taken very quickly which kind of made me nervous because usually the bad bets are taken first but soon after that the more major bookies with higher payout published their odds, just as I expected with Garcia a narrow favorite and soon after that they lowered their odds slightly pricing Garcia as a 1.85 favorite. Good news and I placed a lay bet at 1.87 to adjust for commission and went to bed. All clear this morning and €6.5 green on both women.

I also had a small part of my 1.13 bet on Sharapova (v. Bacsinsky) matched. Could green out a €1 profit this morning at 1.10. So far a very solid week.

Wimbledon Tuesday

I had a lot of very small stakes matched on several markets. Could cash them for about €0.10 each so nothing to write about. Two markets got some more money taken. These were

• Gimeno-Traver v. Giraldo - Neither is a natural grass player but Giraldo has much more merits on the surface and a healthy 6-1 in the HH. Gimeno hasn't won a match on grass since 2011. I backed Giraldo at 1.28 and was hoping to get out at 1.25ish. We'll see what happens. There is a decent amount waiting at 1.27 and not much activity in the market. Might have to settle for one click or even get out again at 1.28.
• Falla v. Pavic - Falla is actually a quite competent grass player, reaching the finals in Halle a few weeks ago losing in two tiebreaks to Federer. Pavic has done fairly well in qualifiers and challengers this year but is yet to win a md match. Hard to believe it will happen today. I backed Falla at 1.37 and had about €85 matched. Trying to get out at 1.34. Should be possible to do. It's small steps but they are steps.

Wimbledon Monday

Got matched in three markets during my first Wimbledon trading day which started yesterday with Monday's matches. I entered five different markets, but as I said was only matched in three of them.
These were:

• Erakovic v. Konjuh where I backed Erakovic at 1.66 and could trade out at 1.61. Sady I had only a very small stake matched and I net €1 for the market.
• Barthel v. Oprandi where I had a decent part of my bet for Barthel taken at 1.24 but not the full ammount. I have laid off about half of it at 1.22 and I'm waiting for the rest to be taken. Should be around €3.5 if I can get all matched at 1.22.
• Davis v. Kleybanova - I backed Davis at 1.46 for a smallish stake which was good because markets didn't like Davis quite as much as last week. I could get out of most of my trade at 1.46 when it started to turn against me but I had to lay off the last liability at 1.51 for a -€1 loss. 

Average trading day. Matched in 60% of my markets, although not for 60% of my stakes and two correct bets and one incorrect. No trader will ever win all his trades, the important thing is to be right more often than not and to cut losses and maximize winnings. That however is easier said than done.

UPDATE: Well finally I got all my lay money on Barthel taken and all green for €3.5. Took much longer than I thought it would.

W20-21

I just noticed that I forgot to update the graph last week so it will be a 2 week update. Up another €50 to pass the €800 mark.

Germany v. Ghana

Cashout at 1.33. Too much lay money entered at 1.33 and not enough back money at 1.34 so I decided to get out. Unfavorable WoM is a bad indication. Better safe than sorry and another 6 Euro won.

Switzerland - France

Cash out at 1.81 just as according to plan. €8.5 secured no matter how the match ends. Going towards a very good week here.

Germany - Ghana, Switzerland - France

I didn't find anything good on today's tennis. Markets seemed to be where they should so I decided to have a closer look at the WC instead. Germany bounced up from 1.30 to 1.35 for no apparent reason in their match v. Ghana. That looks like a good entry. The team impressed v. Portugal and no one in their right mind would think that the match could end in any other way than a German victory. So we have a technically sound entry level at 1.35 which acts like a resistance level and the big team effect that should be exaggerated when kick off comes closer and the casual bettors enter the market on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see starting odds below 1.30 on Germany. Right now I'm matched on 25% of my stake at 1.35 and the queue is building up behind me which is nice.

Same thing occurred on Switzerland v. France. The French had been trading in the low 1.80's and then odds rose back up to 1.89. 1.90 acts as a resistance level and I could get my full stake matched at 1.89. France obviously is the superior team and I expect odds to drop back down again when more money enter the market. Realistically most money should enter on France pushing their price back down towards the low 1.80's. Right now we're at 1.87 to back and 1.88 to lay.

I've also taken a position on the Austrian F1-race following my usual strategy of laying Alonso. Pre race markets always seem to love the Spaniard and IMO he's the best and most complete driver in the field but the car is not up for the job. It's expensive to lay at 36 but after practice odds should be much higher. Should be at least at 75 when the five red lights go out. As always weather can play a part and if conditions look bad I'll get out sooner, playing it safe. With dry conditions realistically both Mercedes and both Red Bulls should be ahead of the Ferraris. Possibly one or both Williams or Button's McLaren could be up there as well. In any case Fernando should be at best in the third row after Q.

Italy - Costa Rica (Technical Trade)

Some strange market behavior on Italy v. Costa Rica yesterday. Could cash in some money on trading support and resistance levels. I could identify 1.60 as an initial support level once the market settled down (blue line). This was then broken and acted as a resistance level (red line). Then market traded well below for a while before sharply turning up and bouncing off the resistance level at 1.60 again. I backed Italy for 1.60 and placed a lay bet at 1.56 straight away and was matched a little while ago. €4 on all outcomes. Easy money and on top of the technical case for this trade I've noticed that the market loves the "big" teams in this WC. Even Spain which was hopeless v. Netherlands playing a Chile that impressed in their first game steamed from 1.75 to 1.60 at kick off, and went on to lose 0-2.

Crazy markets

Mentioned my successful trade on Young v. Ward. I had no idea what moved the market in Ward's favor and then something even more weird happened.

My entry was the first plateau at 2.00-2.02 and then the market moved sharply down all the way to 1.77. Silly me traded out at 1.93 but since I could not fundamentally explain why the market loved Ward so much I'd rather play it safe than get caught out on the rebound. The rebound came and moved the market all the way up to 2.00-2.02 again. This screen is just before the match started. Young won easy in straights.

I can only explain this with psychology. Something or someone made the market believe that Ward was really hot for this. Markets with traditional bookies opened with Ward a 2.20 dog but Betfair only traded small money at this price. Probably this caused bookies to drastically lower their prices on Ward and then people started believing something was wrong with Young or something and the more the markets steamed the more convinced punters got that Ward was huge value. Until someone realized it was not so. A classic double bottom at 1.77-1.76 and up it went. You could write an essay on technical analysis with this market alone. The trick is to read this while it happens, not like me, when I know what happened next. Still, I got away with €10 from the market so I can't complain.

Support-line
Resistance-line
Double bottom indicates trend reversal
Trend-line  

Win or Lose?

I've had two very strange weeks here but hopefully things have turned back in my favor now. Two weeks ago I had my first losing week since the start of this blog. Last week looked better but then I lost all my weekly profits on Federer-Falla. I believed it would be a close match (Fed won 76 76) and that odds would be slightly higher than where they started (1.12ish with Pinnacle). I got a chance to lay Fed for 1.11 but then odds dropped rapidly to 1.09 and despite a long wait and putting my hopes on "lay the favorite" traders odds never rose up again and I had to take the loss.

Then I scored my highest ever win on the very dull Nigeria-Iran WC game. Sunday night with the Fed-disappointment still in mind I found odds on Nigeria at 2.26, way to high for team full of international stars playing against an Iranian team of mostly domestic players. I was right and could cash out half my stake at 2.00 and the rest at 1.95. The match ended in a goal less draw but that doesn't matter. €40 right down in my pocket.

Last night between the Germany and Nigeria games I studied the tennis odds for today. Found Melzer a 1.65 favorite v. Falla. Slightly lowish IMO. Melzer in poor form and Falla is no slouch on grass. Didn't get my full stake matched but could close out a €3 win at 1.73.

This morning I was very convinced Pavic (who got into the tournament through Q) would be an even bigger fav. v. Gonzalez who is in poor form and 0-1 career on grass. Backed at 1.49 and had to get out at 1.54 when the market for unknown reasons liked Gonzalez.-€6

Another unknown reaction happened in my favor though. Young v. Ward. Total coin toss imo. Neither player is in very good form but the American is ultimately the more talented. The Briton slightly better on grass. However I noticed that bookies lowered odds on Ward heavily and Betfair didn't react. There was a €7500 post laying Ward at evens when most major bookies rapidly lowered odds on Ward towards 1.90 and below. Backed Ward at 2 with all cash I had free (around €300] and waited for the market to eat through the massive lay at evens. It did, and once it was gone markets quickly shot down to 1.93 which is where I got out with a €10 win. Don't know what triggered this but I'm happy to take the money.

Grass

Closed three smallish trades yesterday. Started with Tsonga (.v Goffin) when markets opened and was matched with my full stake at 1.19. This was before major bookies opened their lines. There was a moment of nerves when Pinnacle and some other bigger players opened their lines at 1.20 but they lowered their odds to 1.17 within half an hour and I could close out at the same odds.

Decided to lay Stepanek (v. Tomic) at 1.49. Tomic is a good grass player when he's up for it and he did show some fight digging out a three set win in his first match. Stepanek is decent but past his prime and odds below 1.50 felt too short. Didn't have my full stake matched but I will look to close out in the mid 50's today.

Also placed a lay on Hewitt (v. Lopez). These guys are the same age (b. 1981 - great year btw) but time has been a little nicer to Lopez' game and he's a very good grass player. So is Hewitt but IMO he lost more. Markets opened quite high with Hewitt at 1.80 but I didn't get matched there and had to try the opposite. Part of a lay bet at 1.63 was taken and I could green out this morning at 1.69.

W19

After 18 weeks with green digits I got my first red one last week. I've explained it all in a previous post so nothing much to add. I managed another €3 on Hammarby v. Landskrona in the Swedish Superettan football. Net result last week was -€11. Should be easier this week with smaller tournaments. 2nd week of slams are difficult because it's all high profile matches with plenty of money and well known players. Difficult to find an edge there.

And some coins for comfort

I made some successful trades on the Swedish Superettan football today. This is the second league so I was unsure about liquidity and kept my stakes low. But without competition from more major leagues having my €75 stakes matched proved no problem. Backed Ljungskile and Sundsvall this morning and traded out small profits during the afternoon. It's mostly petty cash, about €5 but it's so nice to be winning again. Still €15 in the red for this week though.

I've also secured €3 on the Montreal F1 race. Placed a lay on Alonso at 26 after he topped the first free practice. This is not a Ferrari track, it's a Mercedes and Hamilton track, and narrowly topping the times on a very dirty track in FP1 after being nowhere earlier in the season just doesn't mean anything. After qually (P7) Alonso is trading around 100 but I closed out the trade before FP3. Overly cautious as it turned out but having €500 running during a Qually session doesn't feel great even if I was very sure Alonso wouldn't be top 5 once laptimes really mattered.

Things can happen, weather, a badly timed red flag for a crash or a mechanical failure on the top runners and Alonso could be on the front row priced at 6. Then I would be in big trouble. Better safe than sorry. This is trading, not betting. 

First Red Week

This looks like my first week with a loss on Sunday evening. I just can't believe how every possible thing has turned the wrong way for me this week. It started off badly with Errani v. Jankovic. I had Errani as a small favorite to win the match (which she did in straights) but market traded her up to 2.12 and I had to take a €12 red on both players.

Then I was right on but Muguruza v. Sharapova, Suarez-Navarro v. Bouchard and Murray v. Verdasco but didn't get my full stakes matched so the profits were very small.

Ok then came Halep v. Kuznetsova. I'm really impressed with Halep and had her as a big favorite v. Kuznetsova. Similar styles but Halep is the better version and that usually ends only in one way. Backed Halep heavily for 1.43 only to see odds rise to 1.47 before match start, again I had to red out and Halep won 62 62.

Got it right laying Murray at 1.50 v. Monfils and trading out at 1.55, but once again my full stake wasn't matched and profit stayed at €4.

Made a live trade work on Sharapova - Bouchard backing Maria a break down in the first set. She had started slow before and then come back and that's what happened here as well. Live I only do small stakes so €3 profit.

Next disaster, Halep - Petkovic. Seing how the market disliked Halep v. Kuznetsova and how Petkovic crushed Errani who has a similar playing style I found 1.29 on Halep quite short. Wrong again. Odds turned down to 1.26, back up slightly to 1.27-1.28. Red out again and this time I had placed a huge lay (because it's cheaper to lay at low odds) so the loss was quite big. I could trade live and save €4 but I still had to take a €14 loss on the market.

So more or less all trades I was wrong had the worst possible result and when I was right my stakes were not taken in full. It's normal to win some and lose some that's not a problem but it becomes one when the winning trades are too small because market moves in the right direction at the wrong time, meaning before my stake was matched.

Monday

I did manage to get out of Errani - Jankovic at the best price possible when the market fell back during the night/morning to 2.06. I had placed a ladder laying off my liability at 2.10, 2.08 and 2.06 and the market  bottomed at 2.06 before turning up again. Still cost me €12 which is a poor start to the week, again. Oh and Errani won just as I predicted, in straights 76 62. Small comfort is that I backed her for 2.10 on a match bet. Didn't win me any €12 but it's good to be right.

Had a quick trade on Suarez-Navarro (v. Bouchard). My estimates had Bouchard as a slender  favorite so when the markets opened around 1.55 for the Canadian I placed a lay bet. Had some of it taken before odds corrected themselves but I could close out a €3 comfort price.

I've just entered the Monfils (v. Murray) market laying Murray for 1.53 avg odds. The Scot started his match v. Verdasco a 1.71 favorite and Verdasco and Monfils are very similar in ranking and are both playing well this tournament. Murray was much better today than v. Kohlschreiber but Monfils in France is no pushover. I have this match at around 1.60, right now it's slightly lower but I hope it will rise so I can secure a decent profit from it.

W18

This week surprisingly ended very well with a profit of €39. Didn't see that one coming at the beginning of the week. That is including the €14 i got from accidentally leaving the Gulbis v. Stepanek match in play but even without that it's a very decent result.

Unfortunately I have a really bad bet to start the next week with. I figured Errani would be slightly favored v. Jankovic and backed the Italian at 2.04 avg odds. She leads the H-H 2-1 including 1-0 on clay. Beat Jankovic in Rome only a few weeks ago in straight sets and also beat world no2 Na Li on clay in Rome. The Serbian beat Cirstea last time losing only three games. Errani crushed Glushko 0 and 1. I thought my case was clear but odds shot the other way and are now trading 2.14-2.18 which is expensive for me. Still have a slight hope to get out around 2.10ish but that's slim-

Things that must NOT happen!

I got away this time but obviously I need to be more careful. It's the first time in a very long time I missed the starting time of a match I traded. Had a bet matched on Gulbis yesterday afternoon, thought the match would play Saturday. Didn't have my full stake taken and left it there. Now I checked my bets and to my surprise found a green box next to the match indicating it was in play. Luckily for me Gulbis was up a set and a break so I could close it with a nice €14 profit but this is just an unacceptable mistake. With some bad luck I could have been €70 red on this one.

Raonic - Simon

Easy one this time. Most major bookies had Raonic at 1.51 - 1.54 but I managed to get matched at 1.57. Could sell it back at 1.55 within an hour of entering the market. €3 profit.

...and finally some positives

I took a position last night laying Monaco (v. Seppi) at 1.64. I think markets gave the Argentinian way too much credit in this match up. Both are similar players, raised on clay, solid from the baseline, 2-2 in the HH 1-1 on clay. Seppi is ranked higher now but Monaco has a better career high. Neither are in spectacular form this season. In short it seemed strange to have Monaco as a 61% favorite when there is very little between them. For once I was right and when I got up this morning I could close the trade at avg odds 1.73 to secure a €7.5 profit. That should put me firmly in the green this week so that's nice. Right now my PL reads -€10 but then I haven't been paid for Niculescu, Garcia-Lopez or Monaco and that's worth about €17.

French open miseries

I've said for a couple of weeks now that I need to up my game because I'm getting into way to many bad trades and making bad decisions to make things worse. The French Open couldn't have started much worse.

For my R1 bankers I chose Gasquet (v. Tomic) because Gasquet should be fit after a 7 week injury lay off. There were positive signs I managed to decipher from his french website using my 14 year old largely unused skills in french and some Google Translate and most tennis fans know Tomic is quite terrible on anything but Australian hard courts and that accounts for about three weeks of the year. Clay is a bad surface for him and Gasquet is playing in France so 1.30 seemed to be quite a good bet for the frenchman. Obviously I was wrong and market traded up to 1.34, apparently paying more attention to Gasquet's two month old injury than to the fact that his opponent can't beat the likes of Victor Estrella on clay in M1000 competition. Red for €5 and Gasquet won in straight sets.

My other banker was Berlocq (v. Hewitt). Last time the former world number one did anything good on clay was in Houston five years ago. Over the last four seasons he's won twice on the surface. No not two tournaments, two matches, the last one being a hard fought victory over Canadian Peter Polansky who has won exactly 1 main draw match on clay over the last five seasons. Ok I'm not being nice now but sometimes the markets are just rubbish. Berlocq on the other hand has won twice, yes two tournaments on clay over the last 12 months, last one in Oeiras just a few weeks ago. He's the archetype of a clay courter and should easily routine Hewitt. 1,32 good bet? No! Market rose to 1.35 and I had to get out with a €3 red. Berlocq started slow and lost the first set but then won in four.

I have two winning trades as well, which is nice but I'm in a quite bad mood so I'll only say that I secured a €4 profit on Niculescu (v. Ormachea) and €7.5 on Garcia-Lopez (v. Mannarino). That pretty much puts me back to 0 for the week and again I've done all this work for nothing.

W16-17

Because I was abroad last weekend this is a result over the last two weeks. Quite poor result once again but still a small profit of €8 over the last two weeks. Four euros a week is way below my expectations so I need to do better. On the up side I still have no losing weeks and my account is up 45% in four months.

F1 and Tennis

I've closed all trades on the Monaco GP. After FP2 I placed a lay on Alonso for at 19. The Ferrari driver finished on top but it was a strange session where rain and timing played a crucial role in deciding the outcome. The Merc drivers didn't get clean laps at the dry track towards the end and Alonso did. Market overreacted and I could buy back my stake at 25 a few hours later. Net result €6 no matter who wins on Sunday.

Also grabbed a bet on the WTA match between Puig and Keys. Traditional bookies had odds placed even for this Semi final. Betfair had Keys as a very slight favorite. All my calculations pointed towards Puig as a marginal ~ 1.90 favorite so I backed her heavily at evens. Sadly with all trades that have gone bad lately I couldn't keep my cool and so badly wanted to secure a green so I settled for a lay at 1.98 when the market began to swing in Puig's favor. Then it continued all the way down to 1.90 and she won the match in straight sets. Should have gotten at least double up from the €5.5 I actually won but it could just as well have been 3 or 4 times that had I only been more confident.

Soccer and F1

I've been afk for about a week but now I'm back and ready to trade. Already closed one on Rosberg to win the Monaco GP. There was much talk before FP1 that Mercedes wouldn't be as dominant at this circuit as on other tracks but I've followed F1 long enough to know that a good car is a good car and with the margin Mercedes has had so far this season they should be ahead even if other teams possibly could be a little bit closer. That doesn't matter though because it's position that counts. Both Merc drivers Hamilton and Rosberg are quite handy around the tight circuit as well so that bodes well for the Silver Arrows. Backed Rosberg at 3.25 last night and closed it out at 3.00 this morning. Also backed Hamilton at 2.02 and still hope to trade out below 2.00. He was narrowly on top in first practice but odds still didn't drop. Hope they will if he remains on top in FP2.

Also took a bet on Malmö FF to beat Mjällby away in the Swedish Allsvenskan. Malmö is the top team in the league and they have won all 4 away games this season. Mjällby is a much weaker team placed P15 from 16 in the table. Backed at 1.61 last night and have been watching the odds drop slowly. Now at 1.58 but I wouldn't be surprised to see odds below 1.55 closer to the match when the casual bettors enter the market, probably during the final two hours leading before kick off. I wait and see how much I can get from this. Now it's time for F1 FP2 from Monaco.

Chardy - Dodig

Obviously made a mistake here. IMO Chardy is a slight fav here. Ranking is very similar. Both have been quite out of form but seems to have found their games again. Chardy is the more accomplished clay player and Rome is played on quite slow clay exaggerating that advantage. Chardy beat Haase and Federer. Dodig beat Delbonis and Rosol. I know who I price up as the favorite here but the market thinks otherwise. Dodig is priced as a slight fav and I backed Chardy as one

Youzhny - Golubev

Youzhny pays again. Market usually likes the Russian despite less than great form. 1.73 last night out at 1.70 this morning. Just over EUR 3.

Monday

Starting off better. 4 EUR on Tsonga after backing him for 1.90 last night. 2 EUR on Delbonis backing him at 1.66 last night. Trying to close a trade on Youzhny. Got the Russian at 1.27.
Ok out at 1.26. Hoped for 1.25 but ok, its a win. 8 EUR in total today is more than the whole of the dreadful last week.

W15

Phew... Guess that's all there is to say. Terrible week. Lots of bad calls on odds. More often than not I got on the wrong side of every trade and had to work hard to cut losses. So I guess I have to be quite pleased with a €7 win for the week. It could have been MUCH worse. Need to be much more focused next week. Maybe it's been to easy so far recording 15 straight weeks with green numbers at the end of each week. Must do better in the coming weeks or else there will be a red one sooner rather than later.

Sharapova - Na

Finally a decent trade this week. It's been really tough to get matched and the few times I have been matched odds have generally shot off in the wrong direction. Much of the week's trading has been spent trying to cut losses. It's been somewhat successful and with the weekend coming up I'm €7 up but that's been really tough work that has also included some live trading, which is always a risk of making things worse instead.

This marked had Sharapova at 1.69 last night and it was quite obvious the market loved Maria so I backed her quite heavily and had about €300 matched. Closed out at 1.65 for a €7.5 profit.

Ouch!

Bad bad trade on Delbonis - Lopez. The latter has been completely out of form and is a quite poor clay court player. Delbonis at 1.68 this morning looked like a good bet to get out  from in the low 1.60's before match start. Then it got all wild an just flew up to 1.79 like a rocket and forced me to take a €10 loss. The week didn't start off as well as it seemed last night. Oh, and obviously Lopez won after failing to break for two whole sets he broke twice from 2-2 in the third to end affairs when Delbonis' game completely vanished. Market right... me wrong.

W13

Another week another 20. More standard trading this week and returns more according to the long term trend. Last week was much better than expected and I never had hopes to repeat it again so soon. Still a solid return. Also had an outright bet on Berlocq to beat Berdych at 5.67 this afternoon which was nice even if it was just for 1 euro on my Pinnacle account.

For next week I've already secured €7 on Anderson v. Stepanek backing the South African at 1.83 and selling off 10 points lower. Also matched on Gulbis at 1.32 with a lay bet at 1.28 to get out with about €5. Should that happen next week is already off to a flyer. Madrid next!

Berlocq - Gimeno-Traver

Got stuck with a small loss on this one. HH was 5-1 in Berlocq's favour and he's been looking all good this week including a big win over Raonic who's not by any means a natural clay courter but a very good player and not at all lost on the surface. DGT on the other hand qualified for the tourney and did it well but beat no nastier opponent than Granollers who has been quite awful all year. So naturally I backed Charly at 1.66 when odds came out at low 60's last night, expecting to get out at low sixties or even in the high fifties. Instead I woke up to the fact that the match traded at 1.68. Decided to get out and back again at 1.70 but then it got even worse and climbed out to 1.73 which I believe was the highest traded pre match odds. Could then red out a €3.50 loss at 1.72 and after some trading in play the net result was a negative €1.50. I'll live but it still sucks to lose money, especially when I was right all along. Berlocq won in straights and DGT has still not been in an ATP-final.

Levante - Atletico

Got some matched at 1.30 the other day. 150 euros, had hoped for more but ok its a fairly safe bet. Could be around 1.25 on match day which still gives a decent return. Most Epl and Ech matches are not important so I've had to look at Spain and tennis this week.

UPDATE: Never got more matched at 1.29 which I decided to drop my back to. Instead my lay at 1.27 was taken during the evening giving me a €3.50 profit for the match.

Berdych - Mayer

Ok so the T-bird wasn't at his best v. Devvarman but still only lost five games. Mayer is better but is still ranked in the worse part of top 100 and has never been a top 50 contender. One can be suspect of Birdman in small tournaments but it makes no sense to grab a wc and then go lose to the likes of Mayer. Backed at 1.175 avg. And hope to get out at 16.

Update: Doesn't look like it will drop much. Out at 17 and EUR 2 on all outcomes.

Volandri - Elias

Took a bet on Elias at 1.74 on Monday. Market seemed to like the young Portuguese v a very out of form Volandri. Match being scheduled on Wednesday to allow Elias time to get back from South-America also helps. Just greened out at 1.65.

W12

This is what I earned this week. Best week so far. Graph is tending up nicely. :)

Valencia - Atletico

Took a position on Atletico yesterday at 1.84. After an initial scare up to 1.87 it dropped back down just as expected. Just over an hour before kick off it's trading at 1.69 but I think it can drop even more in the last 60 minutes. Will keep a close look at the market and get ready to collect a big reward. I sold off half my position at 1.71 just to cover for a recoil but it doesn't look like there will be one today. Target 1.65.

UPDATE: Ok target not quite reached. Closed at 1.68 and wins €16 no matter how the match ends. 

More Tennis than Soccer

I've already started moving towards more tennis trades than soccer. Many leagues are already decided despite a few more games to play and I could never make a fair assessment about how markets would price games that doesn't matter to either team, or just one of the teams. I cashed in €18 on Bolton - Leicester early in the week and another €2 on Reading. Then I've had 10 tennis trades with a total of €13 in profits. 8 good ones with the best one being Rosol - Simon (€5) and the worst Meusburger - Oprandi (-2) the rest of the in between. Might be so that it won't  be so difficult to maintain a decent weekly profit with just tennis after all.

Bolton - Leicester

Leicester will secure the Championship title if they win today. They will be 7 pts ahead of Burnley with 2 games left to play. Bolton have decent form but played a disappointing draw v. Charlton last game. Table wise the home team are in the middle of nowhere. Too far off to reach playoffs and well clear of the relegation zone. Motivation and class should give Leicester advantage here. I managed to get some juice backed at 2.36 last night which was very generous. Now trading at 2.26 but I think it can go down below 2.20 before kick off so I'll monitor the market today and try to secure an even bigger win.

UPDATE: Closed at 2.18. Wins 20 euros.

W11

Had quite a big loss on Crewe today. Thought they would beat Colchester but the market thought otherwise (and was right). Had quite decent wins on Wolves and Peterborough though so summarizing Easter Weekend it's still a €12 profit but it should have been much better. English football season is coming to an end now so it will be more difficult to maintain profits trading just tennis over the summer, possibly some world cup football as well but there's much less data to rely on so that's not going to be easy. Swedish football is an option since I kind of know the teams but liquidity is usually too poor even for a small fish like myself.

Leicester - QPR

Started a trade on Leicester this morning. Odds were avaliable at 1.98 with Betfair and most bookies dropped their odds to 1.90ish. Currently trading at 1.94-1.95 but I hope to see odds closer to 1.90 before kick off. Should be a profitable morning.

UPDATE: Well that's one of the easiest €8 I've ever earned. Layed off all my stake at 1.92.