Strategy

I think I've come up with a way to refine my strategy. So far it has worked really well for me and rendered some nice profits.

First of all I need to avoid the highest leagues in each country and the two highest leagues in England. I could make exceptions but generally it's difficult to find that extra value because there's so much information and money going into these markets and they tend to correct themselves pretty quickly and then start moving quite irrationally, suddenly going 10 points up or down for no apparent reason other than huge money entering the market at a particular side.

Over the last week my most profitable trades have been in  England League 1 and 2, French Ligue 2 and Italian Serie B. There's enough juice for my stakes to get matched with ease but not enough to attract the really big fish.

The thing is I don't know much about football and especially not in these leagues. The teams are really just names, form curves, H-H mixed up with some betting psychology. If you asked me I probably couldn't name a single player from any club in these four leagues. My edge as I have found it is that I seem to be pretty good at identifying what people (these casual punters) I've been talking about like to bet on and what they will dislike, and also what a reasonable price for that particular team would be.

It's worth going back a little to these casual punters. They are like people are the most. The like to place fairly small stake bets on teams that look good for the win, typically highly placed in form teams against pretty much any opposition and at pretty much any price. They don't care if they back at 1.90 or 1.80 if the are "sure" their team is going to win. They also tend to enter the market quite late and move the price in that direction, supply and demand. The difference between these guys and the pros operating the higher leagues is that the pros will not back a 1.90 team at 1.86 because that's not "value" and then the markets will not react the way I expect because I'm not that good at predicting exact odds. I might back a strong team at 1.85 expecting punters to drive it down to 1.80 on sheer volume but if there are to many sharp bettors pricing the match at 1.88 they will go and place big lays and drive the price up and my book red. These professionals don't operate the second and third leagues because there's not enough money for them to make. But there's enough money for me to do my part time, small fish, a little extra income from trading a few times a week.

Or to sum it up. I need to be smarter then the market I'm trading, not the smartest guy on Betfair, because I'm really not, and it doesn't matter a rats arse how much you know about football if you can read a market and predict what people will like or not. That's why I trade, not bet, except for my Kelly bets and they are based on technical analysis and comparing different bookie prices anyway.