Surprise QF here. Probably most people believed Nadal would defeat the 19 year old Nick Kyrgios from Australia but they were proved wrong. However this gave me an opportunity to step in in the very early markets. I studied how markets priced the two players before this match during the tournament and found that Kyrgios should be given a slighly better chance that v. Gasquet (23%). 1/3 seemed a fair price and would give a line with Raonic (1.50) v. Kyrgios (3.00). As a very early market with lots of uncertainties I placed a very small bet on Raonic at 1.62, was matched, did something else and checked back 10 minutes later and greened out at €1.5 profit at 1.47. Found these odds to low because bookies had come up with their lines and were raising their prices on Raonic from low 1.40's so I placed slightly larger lay bet at the same price and once again greened out 10 minutes later at 1.51. Since it was all small stakes I only win €2.50 but this is one trade I feel quite proud about.
Looks like I've had a normal sized bet on Murray (v. Dimitrov) matched at 1.32 while typing. I'll place a lay bet at 1.31 because there is one heap of cash laying at 1.30 and I'd rather not mix it there. Hopefully that's another €2 when I wake up.
UPDATE: Yes, green on Murray.
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