Update

Lots of things and nothing at all going on. I'm having a frustrating week. Not really making losses just not getting enough wins. Typical trade this week: I back player A at 1.60. Bookies offer 1.54. I place a lay bet at 1.56. Doesn't get matched. Bookies raise odds to 1.59. I quickly get out at 1.60. Soon after odds drop to 1.52 and betfair trade at 1.55. Annoying to say the least. On the other hand a few times the odds continued to drift and not getting out would have cased a loss.

I've also been experimenting with live trading. I've said before I'm not very good at it but I want to learn so I've been thinking about what I have been doing and why its not working. Basically I've found a random atp match. Watched a few games to see who's hot and who's not. Then backed the "hot" player while serving expecting a hold and then a break. Problem: market expects this to happen and if it does the market doesn't move much. If it doesn't happen, even if both players continue to hold odds drift and I go red. Even worse, my player face a bp or just go to 0-15 or 30-30 in a service game and I go big red.

Possible solution: pick games more carefully. Back a strong returner recieving from a weak server. Breaks will be fairly frequent and odds will move quite much if my player breaks. If the server holds I can red out and try again next service game.

Risk: There is no break. Its unlikely to happen that a weak server will hold six times in a row vs a strong returner but it can happen. Then I will be red. So far I've been trying this in wta games where breaks are very frequent. I'm more green than red so far but its been small stakes and few matches but I feel potential in the strategy.

That said my main focus will still be pre match.