Germany - Ghana, Switzerland - France

I didn't find anything good on today's tennis. Markets seemed to be where they should so I decided to have a closer look at the WC instead. Germany bounced up from 1.30 to 1.35 for no apparent reason in their match v. Ghana. That looks like a good entry. The team impressed v. Portugal and no one in their right mind would think that the match could end in any other way than a German victory. So we have a technically sound entry level at 1.35 which acts like a resistance level and the big team effect that should be exaggerated when kick off comes closer and the casual bettors enter the market on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see starting odds below 1.30 on Germany. Right now I'm matched on 25% of my stake at 1.35 and the queue is building up behind me which is nice.

Same thing occurred on Switzerland v. France. The French had been trading in the low 1.80's and then odds rose back up to 1.89. 1.90 acts as a resistance level and I could get my full stake matched at 1.89. France obviously is the superior team and I expect odds to drop back down again when more money enter the market. Realistically most money should enter on France pushing their price back down towards the low 1.80's. Right now we're at 1.87 to back and 1.88 to lay.

I've also taken a position on the Austrian F1-race following my usual strategy of laying Alonso. Pre race markets always seem to love the Spaniard and IMO he's the best and most complete driver in the field but the car is not up for the job. It's expensive to lay at 36 but after practice odds should be much higher. Should be at least at 75 when the five red lights go out. As always weather can play a part and if conditions look bad I'll get out sooner, playing it safe. With dry conditions realistically both Mercedes and both Red Bulls should be ahead of the Ferraris. Possibly one or both Williams or Button's McLaren could be up there as well. In any case Fernando should be at best in the third row after Q.