Win or Lose?

I've had two very strange weeks here but hopefully things have turned back in my favor now. Two weeks ago I had my first losing week since the start of this blog. Last week looked better but then I lost all my weekly profits on Federer-Falla. I believed it would be a close match (Fed won 76 76) and that odds would be slightly higher than where they started (1.12ish with Pinnacle). I got a chance to lay Fed for 1.11 but then odds dropped rapidly to 1.09 and despite a long wait and putting my hopes on "lay the favorite" traders odds never rose up again and I had to take the loss.

Then I scored my highest ever win on the very dull Nigeria-Iran WC game. Sunday night with the Fed-disappointment still in mind I found odds on Nigeria at 2.26, way to high for team full of international stars playing against an Iranian team of mostly domestic players. I was right and could cash out half my stake at 2.00 and the rest at 1.95. The match ended in a goal less draw but that doesn't matter. €40 right down in my pocket.

Last night between the Germany and Nigeria games I studied the tennis odds for today. Found Melzer a 1.65 favorite v. Falla. Slightly lowish IMO. Melzer in poor form and Falla is no slouch on grass. Didn't get my full stake matched but could close out a €3 win at 1.73.

This morning I was very convinced Pavic (who got into the tournament through Q) would be an even bigger fav. v. Gonzalez who is in poor form and 0-1 career on grass. Backed at 1.49 and had to get out at 1.54 when the market for unknown reasons liked Gonzalez.-€6

Another unknown reaction happened in my favor though. Young v. Ward. Total coin toss imo. Neither player is in very good form but the American is ultimately the more talented. The Briton slightly better on grass. However I noticed that bookies lowered odds on Ward heavily and Betfair didn't react. There was a €7500 post laying Ward at evens when most major bookies rapidly lowered odds on Ward towards 1.90 and below. Backed Ward at 2 with all cash I had free (around €300] and waited for the market to eat through the massive lay at evens. It did, and once it was gone markets quickly shot down to 1.93 which is where I got out with a €10 win. Don't know what triggered this but I'm happy to take the money.