Kitzbühel final

Very strange market this one. Got away on top this time but I was headed for another bad loss this weekend. Before the match, that is yesterday evening before odds were published I had Goffin as a small favorite for the title. He's on an insane roll of wins, three ch-titles in a row and reached the final  for the loss of only one set. Thiem, the home player is good, is promising but is also inconsistent and very very young. Both are playing their first ATP-finals but Goffin is without a doubt the more experienced player and very used to winning after bagging 19 wins in a row.

Surprised to see markets open with Thiem a high 1.70 favorite and I placed a lay bet on him at 1.81 which was taken quickly. Went to bed fairly content that I could wake up and check out a nice profit when markets should have sorted themselves out and drifted out atleast up to evens.

Woke up to see Thiem a 1.73 favorite and €8 red on both players. *sigh*

I decided to red out before breakfast, swallow the loss and get on with it. Ate, sat down to see how the night matches from the US of A turned out and was very  surprised to see Thiem at 1.86. Could literally not believe my eyes. Somehow Thiem moved 13 ticks north in about 30 minutes before 8am a Saturday morning.

Fired up my trading program to see what the heck was going on. Soon noticed odds were bouncing wildly on high volumes between 1.83 and 1.93. Bookies had not moved their odds. Obviously this was my chance to cut some losses. I managed three quick trades each shaving off about €3 from my debt on the market and stopped when the market turned green on me. €2 profit on this one. Soon after I left the market it calmed down. Odds slowly returned to the mid 1.70's and stayed there until the match started. Goffin won in three sets.