F1 GB Bets

Williams - Lotus 50 @ 1,10 +5
Perez - Nasr 10 @ 1,40 +4
Nasr - Ericsson 10 @ 1,30 -10
Vettel - Räikkönen 10 @ 1,30 -10
Verstappen - Sainz 10 @ 1,75 -10

Pretty bad weekend this one. Ericsson looked about 0,4 seconds off Nasr all weekend then suddenly found pace in quallies. Räikkönen has made a habit of messing up quallies but was quicker in both FP1 and FP2. That's a bet I shouldn't have made. Stupid me! Verstappen was comfortably quicker then Sainz both FP on Friday but then got handling problems with the car on Saturday and couldn't to anything. 

Should have avoided Vettel - Räikkönen but apart from that I have to put this down as bad luck, which happens when betting.

Trading report June

This will be a very short post because nothing much happened during June. The football leagues I usually trade, the English and Swedish leagues are on summer holidays so no matches to work with. Tennis is also a little complicated because they are doing a month on grass and since that's a surface rarely used it's much more difficult to get enough data to make predictions on where odds should be and find an advantage in the market.

I've added about €10 to the trading bank which now stands at €980 going in to July.

This weekend it's Formula 1 from Britain so stay tuned for my insights.

F1 Austria Pt 2

FP3 Nasr - Ericsson @ 1,45 Car trouble for Nasr then rain

Q Williams - Lotus @ 1,30
Q FI - Toro Rosso - @ 1,65

F1 Austria

Two bets H-H for Quallies so far:

Kvyat - Ricciardo @ 1.92
Nasr - Ericsson @ 1.35

Will probably be a few more tomorrow when more odds are out. Looks quite close so far as is expected from this track. Pole looks wide open with Vettel quick for Ferrari. Rosberg looking to be the faster Mercedes but Hamilton hasn't had a mistake free fast lap recorded yet so difficult to judge his true pace. Williams scored a surprise front row lockout here last year. Might have to wait until after P3 to know where everyone is.

Race

I've traded Hamilton back and forth a few times, backing 1.42, laying 1.41 which has increased trading profits for the race from 1 to 5 Euros. Now I'm all green and will not do anything more, just sit down and watch the race and hope for a double McLaren DNF and some more cash.

After Quallies

Settled Bets:

€10 Hamilton @ 1.85 to win FP1
€20 Hamilton @ 1.55 to win Q
€10 Nasr @ 1.30 over Ericsson in Q
€10 Hulkenberg @ 1.50 over Perez in Q
€10 Hulkenberg @ 1.50 over Sainz in Q
€10 F1 @ 1.60 over Toro Rosso in Q
€10 Lotus @ 1.50 over Red Bull in Q 
€10 Lotus @ 3.25 over Williams in Q

=  €20,5

Open Bets:
Alonso to DNF @ 3.00
Button to DNF @ 3.00

Qualifying team bets

Lotus v. Williams @ 3,25
Lotus v. Red Bull @ 1,50
Force India v. Toro Rosso @ 1,60

F1 bets update after FP2

 My prediction                                                       Result (based on avg best laptime of both cars)

1. Mercedes - Hamilton to beat Rosberg - P1 - Hamilton
2. Ferrari - Vettel to beat Räikkönen - P2 - Vettel
3. Williams - Bottas to beat Massa (narrowly) P4 - 1-1
4. Red Bull - Ricciardo to beat Kvyat - P6 - Kvyat
5. Lotus - Grosjean to beat Maldonado - P3 - 1-1
6. Toro Rosso - Sainz to bet Verstappen- P7 - 1-1
7. McLaren - Alonso to beat Button - P8 - Alonso
8. FI - Perez to beat Hulkenberg (narrowly) - P5 - Hulkenberg
9. Sauber - Nasr to beat Ericsson - P9 - 1-1
10. Manor - Stevens to beat Mehri - P10 - Mehri

Doesn't seem too impressive so far but P2 was washed away and that could change things. I'll evaluate myself properly after Quallies. Seems I underestimated the Lotus cars and the F1 and gave too much credit to the Red Bulls. Apart from that it's quite close. 4 teams have drivers split 1-1 between the two FP. I've been right on 4 and wrong on 2.

I've placed another bet. Hulkenberg to out qualify Perez @ 1.50. The german has looked really strong so far. So much that I put some money where my mouth is.

I won the Hamilton FP1 bet @ 1.85

I had a very small sum matched on the Betfair trade and have closed it out with €1 profit. Not what I hoped for but when you're not matched there's not much to do.

F1 bets

I've been following F1 for a long time, over 15 years now and feel I got a fair idea about how it works. I haven't tried seriously though to make money from it with normal bets before until this season really. I have traded occasionally usually backing or laying a driver before FP and trading out before Quallies. A low risk strategy of you sort of know what you're doing. I've had some luck with my bets so far so I thought I'd share them.

First I have a trade going on where I want to back Hamilton to win the race @ 1.75. It's not matched yet but I obviously hope it will be. This is a track Hamilton loves, weather should be nice which reduces the chance for odd events to disrupt my plans. Cool temperatures are expected which should help the already dominant Mercedes cars, while hotter temperatures should allow Ferrari to sneak closer.

I've also placed a bet @ 1.55 with Betsson for Hamilton to be on pole, and a smaller one for him to win FP1 @ 1.85.

Despite hoping otherwise I've also bet on Nasr to out-qualify my compatriot Ericsson @ 1.30.

Unibet had some interesting offers for 3.00 on both Alonso and Button not to finish the race. Double finish in the chronically unreliable McLaren Honda looks very unlikely and if one fails to finish I'm all good and should both retire I'm in for some nice cash. Not unlikely since this is a power circuit that should put some strain on the fragile power plant. It's also tough on brakes and barriers are close so there should be retirements in the race. Button and Alonso being world champions and all are top class drivers not expected to crash but the risk is always they could get tangled up in someone else's mistake.

I'll be back with some HH bets after the first day of practise. That should have some pecking order sorted out within and between teams.

I expect:
Mercedes - Hamilton to beat Rosberg
Ferrari - Vettel to beat Räikkönen
Williams - Bottas to beat Massa (narrowly)
Red Bull - Ricciardo to beat Kvyat
Lotus - Grosjean to beat Maldonado
Toro Rosso - Sainz to bet Verstappen
McLaren - Alonso to beat Button
FI - Perez to beat Hulkenberg (narrowly)
Sauber - Nasr to beat Ericsson
Manor - Stevens to beat Mehri

Trading report May

May has been a good month once again. Particularly the last week.  I've made over €20 from trading French Open tennis, €6 on the Monaco GP and a few Euros on random football. Previously Grand Slams have not been very kind to me but this one has been different so far. Managed to find good value quite early in the markets and then been along for the ride towards lower odds, that's always nice. Thought I'd catch a loss on the Sock-Busta match where I backed Sock at 1.42 only to watch him trade in the high 48's before dropping back dramatically during the last few hours before the match. Could get out at 1.41 so I kind of misread the market but still got out ok. Apart from that trading has been undramatic. During the month of May my trading bank has increased with €55 to €960. Up €260 during 2015. In total that's a 37% increase from the €700 I started the year with and with no losing months. Have to be pleased so far.

League One Trades

Three good trades today. Some new motivation this month and it pays off.

€3 on Swindon, should have been five but I closed it too soon
€10 on Bristol C, best trade for a long time.
€3 on Preston, decent trade in a volatile market.

No losses so far in May.

Trades

Two good ones today again. 7 Eur on Shrewsbury, 5 on Burton. League two is kind to me.

Monthly trading report

A quite slow April in the Betfair Trading. I made €25 to take the account from €880 to €905 which is a slower increase than before but still a quite solid result. I had one trade that resulted in a fairly big loss but overall I managed to control risk quite well and exit trades that were about to start moving in the wrong direction before they turned deep red. May has started off well with three tennis matches I entered last night and exited with €6 profit this moring. They will be played today.

Tennis bet

Mathieu @ 1.99 over Kuznetsov

67 16 - I just can't get a break!

Tennis bets

I'll go with form this time then:

Ouahab @2.09 over DGT

Haider-Maurer @ 1.59 over Dzumhur

Tennis bet

Garci-Lopez @ 1.50 over Ouahab 

36 36

Tennis bet

Anderson @ 1.60 over Delbonis

Conditions in Houston are much quicker than normal clay. It says it all that Isner has made the final here twice. I think conditions favor Anderson and he is undoubtedly the better player. Delbonis is given too much credit for his clay abilities here.

67 60 63

Tennis bets

Clay season coming up! That usually means lots of fun and some interesting betting opportunities.

Kukushkin @ 2.48 over Ramos - Ramos certainly didn't impress during the golden swing and Kukushkin is a very decent clay courter. Market sometimes give too much credit to the Spaniards, even the lower ranked ones, on clay just because they share the same nationality with clay court beasts like Nadal, Ferrer, Almagro etc. This is much closer to evens in my book.

61 26 63

Tennis bets

I'll have another go with Isner, this time v. Djokovic. The Serb won IW and it's notoriously difficult to win IW and Miami back to back. Isner has been in huge form and Djokovic can lose to the big servers. These two are 3-2 Djokovic on US-Hard (2-2 excluding DC). Isner is unbroken so far in Miami from 4 matches including world numbers 11, 6 and 5. I think Isner wins this match more than 1/5 which odds suggest and I'll throw in a bet on Isner +1,5 sets as well.

Isner @ 5.30 over Djokovic
Isner +1,5 @ 2.10 over Djokovic

Monthly trading update

Not much activity this month on the blog but I have been busy doing my usual trading. It's just that it's pretty ill suited for blogging since I can really only report on my trades once they are done. March was very successful and yielded €86 profit which is a new record. Just under 50% of this is from one very lucky trade early in the month where I was matched on a very very good price on a match from a lower league and then could trade out with a big profit. I guess someone out there suffered from fat fingers or whatever but I'm happy.

The rest of the month was very quiet trading. About 85% of my trades were wins which is very good and shows my match selection and odds predicting method is working well. In total I only had €9 losses, that is around 10% of my total winnings this month were lost which is also very good and means I did well in cutting losses short. Excluding the one off big win I made about €10 every week which is my target. Trading bank has increased to €880.

Tennis bets

Finally back again. I've had much to do over the last weeks, work and family related stuff and I've only managed to squeeze in some time to do a few pre match soccer trades. It's been going fairly well with a close to 85% number of trades won and only small losses on the 15% trades that moved in the wrong direction.

I've found two bets from Miami:

Sock @ 1.55 over Thiem (est. price 1.44) I much more like Sock and especially playing in the US he's really good. From my spreadsheet I get prices in the 1.35-1.44 range so there should be value here.
46 36 - Poor from Sock today. Thiem was great though.

Isner +1,5 set @ 1.54 over Dimitrov - My spreadsheet actually shows Isner to be a very slight favorite in this match. He's been sort of out of form so I don't dare back him to actually win the match, but he should definitely be able to snatch a set. Also I suspect my raw data on Dimitrov might not be 100% correct he seems to come up a little too low on his hold-break ratio for his qualities so I want a margin of safety.

76 62 - Ok little too conservative. Isner won in straights so I should have been better paid here.

Monthly trading update

Another quite decent month of trading. February started off well but then I entered a slump and took some losses in the middle of the month. The worst one set me back almost €20 when a market very suddenly shifted ALOT in the wrong direction. Could be bad luck, could be that it had been too easy in January and early February and that caused me to relax and not be careful enough in selecting my trades.

Come the end of the month things shaped up again and I had a few good wins during the last week and a half. I'm up €42 for the month and €102 since the beginning of the year. I have to be happy with this and keep on working in March.

Tennis bet

Fognini @ 1.77 over Berlocq - Fogger played well in Rio and he showed ability to perform well at consecutive clay events last summer. Berlocq hasn't really looked his usual very confident self this Golden Swing and I think Fognini should get this done. Being Fognini though it might take three sets, probably with atleast one breadstick eaten by either player.

36 06  OUCH - Tank-Fog decided to show up.

Tennis bets

New week three new tournaments. I have bets from two of them today.

Dubai is playing slightly slower than avg hard courts but it's a relatively minor difference so I don't think it will be much of a factor.

I'm going with Lopez @ 1.41 over Ward because Lopez is just a better player. Ward is 28 now and has not yet entered the top 100. Of course there are the late bloomers, Estrella-Burgos has made a name for him self an won his first title a few weeks ago aged 34 but as of yet I see no such signs from Ward.

64 64

Also backing Bolelli @ 1.39 over Pouille - The Italian showed what a good game he has last week and should deal with Pouille who is slightly over hyped atm. Pouille had a decent run in Auckland but since then he's been at the challenger-level he has. Bolelli is much to steady from the back court to be surprised by that.

63 63

Acapulco is also slightly slower than avg hard courts.

I'm going with Giraldo @ 1,63 who is a very decent HC player against Krajicek who is given too much credit for knocking out Karlovic at Memphis. These things happen to big servers like Karlovic if they don't fire. Giraldo can rally well and smack a few winners if needed and Krajicek is still mostly a ch-level guy.

76 61

Final bet of today is Granollers @ 1.73 over Matosevic - Matosevic did well in ousting Isner from Delray Beach but as I wrote this can happen with big servers. Matosevic's form is not great and Granny is one tough guy to play. He has a good base line game, defends well and is very good at the net.

46 26

Tennis bet

Simon @ 2.72 over Monfils - A bit of a chance bet here but you have to like the price on Simon. Leads hi 4-1 and with a Very good record in finals, as opposed to Monfils who has a terrible record. Simon is a mental giant in these types of matches.

64 16 76(4)

Tennis bets

Fognini @ 1.54 over Delbonis - The Fog seems to have found his rythm now and then he's really dangerous on clay. Delbonis has not impressed at all, should have lost to Schwatzmann but he choked and then retired. Then beat Klizan who was clearly not 100%. The Fog is a different thing.

64 67 76

Burgos @ 1.62 over Melzer - Burgos is in great form here and should deal with Melzer.

64 62

Clay treble

Cuevas over Montanes/Nadal over Carreno Busta/Robredo over Haider @ 1,80

Usually I wouldn't bet parlays but this one feels quite solid. Cuevas is on a real roll and Montanes is way past his peak. Carreno won't do anything against Nadal on clay and Robredo is just a much better player than Haider-Maurer.

UPDATE - Robredo screwed me with a truly awful performance. 63 62 to a challenger-player.

Tennis bet

Souza @ 1.70 over Rola - Better player and on home turf. Good form as well.

64 67 64

Tennis bets

I'm sticking with De Schepper @ 1.48 over Guez. Guez was outclassed last week on the slick courts of Bergamo by the big serving Dustov. Hold/Break rated at 43 Guez should be a player that does more damage where the conditions are slower.

26 62 36 - Strange match this, lots of momentum swings, unfortunately for me in the wrong direction.

I'll also go with above mentionend Dustov @ 1.62 playing the Challenger in Wroclaw against Petzschner. The german is not anywhere near the player he once was and the super quick courts should favor the Uzbek.

76 67 61

Slow courts at Rio should favor the grinders over the bigger hitters. Found two matches that suit this well.

Ramos (48)  @ 1.62 over Haider (61)
63 36 26

Schwartzmann (26) @ 1.69 over Delbonis (61)

76 67 12- RET  Dunno what happened there. Schwartzmann just seemed to give up in the third set. This week is NOT starting out well. Atleast I got a small live trade done here so I won't lose anything but that's not the point.

Fast courts at Marseille means a guy like Goffin with weak serve and depencence on rallies should struggle v. the big hitting Pole.

Janowicz (64) @ 2.51 over Goffin (53)

46 26 -  Really pathetic performance from a guy with all those weapons. You at least have to make it close!

Tennis bets

Quick courts again at Marseille which should suit the big servers well.
First bet will be:

De Schepper (72) @ 1.50 over Daniel (63)

75 63 

I will also have a bet on Wawrinka to top Berdych in the Rotterdam final. Seems he's been the more impressive player this week and Berdych has a habit of coming up just short in the most important matches. I think Stan will take this and @ 2.10 value is definately on the Swiss' side. 

46 63 64 - Analysis quite spot on. Berdych's game deteriorated as the match progressed. Had a $5 lay (risking 1.60) on Berd after the first set and cashed it when Stan broke for a 53 lead. Won another $1 that way. Good day at the punters'.

Tennis bet

Cuevas @ 2.26 over Almagro - Cuevas is on a real roll on clay and so far I don't think Almagro has been the player he once was. These odds are more based on the Almagro of two or three years ago who was probably one of the five best clay courters on the planet (after Nadal, Djokovic, Federer and Ferrer). This is simply not true anymore and Cuevas is a very dangerous opponent.

76 36 62

Tennis bets

Fognini @ 1.80 over Schwartzman - Fognini has been terrible since last summer, which is also the last time he played on clay. Back on the dirt I would expect the Italian to up his act and if he does he's by far the superior player on the surface.

63 16 62 - Classic Fognini scoreline

Berlocq @ 1.59 over Giraldo - Charlie is really good on the slow stuff. Giraldo is not bad but he's been quite out of form lately and barely got Koppejans done in two sets. Lost to a very much declining Montanes in Quito. I expect Charlie to grind him down and get this match done.

64 57 36 - Charlie in control until 5-5 in the second. Then started playing some really loose tennis.

Tennis bet

Johnson @ 1.43 over Brown - Sure Brown is decent on a fast court (rated 66) but he's a much less competent player than Johnson (rated 73). Both players are more suited to the faster conditions but Johnson, especially in the US is much more solid. Brown is spectacular but can play some truly wild shots that miss much more than not.

46 75 76 - A little closer than I thought but we got the win Stevie and I :)

Tennis bet

Isner @ 1.78 over Dodig - I don't understand these odds at all. Isner is an absolute beast in the US and on a fast HC he's incredibly tough to beat. Dodig is no slouch but in the US you'll have to give Isner a considerable edge

64 76 - Not surprisingly Isner won in two tight sets. I'll just  have to thank the oddsmakers for the gift. In my book this was a 1.40 type of match, not 1.78.

Tennis bet

Groth @ 1.92 over Lu (Court Speed based bet) So far the court speed based bets have been a success and I will try another one. Groth with a hold/break ratio of 78 is one of the biggest servers there is, which is very useful on the fast Memphis IH. Lu, rated 58 relies much more on rallying with his opponents and there won't be much of that in this match.

 64 63

Tennis Bets & Court Speed Discussion

I've found the need to change my modelling since it's not producing the desired results. I think I've possibly underestimated the court speed factor in making my bets and will now not strictly be looking at numbers in my spreadsheet but also on the individual characteristics of each player.

It's well documented that slower surfaces favors "grinders". That is players who can rally for a long time and win points with stamina and points construction. Faster surfaces favors big servers and big hitters who can out hit their opponents and keep points short.

Looking back at this week's tournaments we have Quito which is played on clay, but on high altitude which makes it a quite fast venue. The final will be played between Lopez who has a hold/break ratio of 71 (over 70 would indicate a big server) and Estrella-Burgos who is rated 59 which would place him pretty much in the middle, but crucially higher than his only decent ranked opponents, Bellucci (55) and Klizan (58). The quick speed seems to have played a part in setting the final.

In Montpellier, also a fast venue but not extremely fast for IH we have the final between Janowicz (64) and Gasquet (61). Not extremely "quick" players although most would probably call Janowicz atleast to be a biggish server. Again, crucially they are rated higher for hold/break than their respective SF opponents, Monfils (58) and Sousa (56)

Zagreb is one of the slower IH tournaments and the final will be contested between Seppi (58) and Garcia-Lopez (54) both much closer to the "grinder" criteria below 50. Their SF were opponents Baghdatis (57) and Granollers (54) so given how close they are in their rating it's difficult to make conclusions. Still, to have an IH tournament final contested between Seppi and GGL is a surprise especially with biggish hitters like Dodig, Karlovic, Berrer, Muller and Troicki elimineted at or before the QF.

Looking ahead to the coming week we have three tournaments. Rotterdam and Memphis are quick IH venues. According to tennisinsight Rotterdam is the quickest with Memphis playing much like Montpellier. Sao Paolo is slower than Quito but not extremely slow for a clay court.

That means Sao Paolo should favor guys who can rally. Don't expect Lopez to make another final appearance. Guys like Berlocq, Cuevas, Monaco and Andujar should do well.

In Memphis big hitters like Johnson, Isner, Karlovic and Tomic should have a decent chance to go far.

Rotterdam is tough to read as there are lots of quality players there, for example Murray who is certainly not a big hitter but a generally superior player. Normally the top-half SF should be Murray v. Berdych, while Wawrinka and Raonic should deal with the bottom half.



Cuevas @ 1.68 over Vesely (EP 1.52) 64 36 75
Johnson @ 1.40 over Sela (EP 1.40, Court speed influenced bet) Sela W/O
Dodig @ 1.45 over Gabashvili (Court speed based bet) 62 62
Müller @ 2.43 over Goffin (Court speed based bet) 76 67 63
Almagro @ 1.43 over Rola (Surface and court speed based bet) 76 64

Tennis bets

Lopez @ 1.40 over Lajovic 46 75 61
Kohlschreiber @ 1.36 over Sousa - 67 46 Even match but Sousa more clutch.
Monfils @ 1.35 over Darcis 46 62 63
Gasquet @ 1.29 over Istomin 63 64

Late pre match trades

Spent 45 minutes trading tonight last 20-25 minutes before KO.

Köln v. Stuttgart €3
Napoli v. Inter €5
Monaco v. Bastia €2

Really starting to get a hang of this. Just need to keep my trading discipline and not lose money!
Should break the €800 barrier on my account very soon which would put my winnings to €100 this year and it's only the start of February. But let's not get carried away. Losses can happen quickly.

Kelly bet Napoli v. Inter

Back (1) @ 1.75 10:-

1-0

Tennis bet Sela v. Istomin

Sticking with Sela @ 2.14 who looked good last match and won me some money. Istomin is here because of a retirement after he lost the first set and he hasn't been at his normal level so far this season. Sela is a tough costumer when his game is on and will make you play alot of ball. (Estimated Price 1.83)

67 26

Tennis bet Hanescu v. Andreozzi

Back Hanescu  @1.59 over Andreozzi

67 46

Tennis bet Lopez v. Gonzalez

Backing Lopez @ 1.67 over Gonzalez at the ATP-event in Quito. Due to altitude this is much quicker than a normal clay event, say at sea level in Vina del Mar or in Buenos Aires. This should favor a big server and heavy hitter like Lopez much more than Gonzalez. (Estimated Price 1.42)

75 62 and 77% of service points won for Lopez. Easy peasy.

Tennis bets

Back Bachinger @ 1.49 over Soeda (Estimated Price 1.36)

67 57 Ball Bachinger still a choker. Won more points in the first set but lost the breaker 7-4. Then got a break up in the second. Gave it back with a DF and then predictably faltered serving to get a second breaker. Thought his good form this season had changed things, but no... same old, same old...

Back Sela @ 1.98 over Zopp (Estimated Price 1.54)

63 64 Nothing to see here. Better player won. Sela won 72% of service points and faced no BP's.

Pre match trade de Schepper v. Ilhan

I quite like de Schepper here. Backed last night at 1.68 and hope to get out at 1.64 during the night. Some of my stake is already taken but a few Euros remain. Should be  a smallish win.

Late pre match trade Malaga v. Valencia

Got in the market 20 minutes before kick off. Was bouncing around 2.72-2.76 on the home team with rare outbursts down and up but pretty much a sideways market which made it not too hard to scalp the market at 2.74 and 2.76 where most of the action was. Made two successful scalps and a few unsuccessful ones where I had to get out at the same price I got in when the market looked to be headed the wrong way. Discipline works!

Profit from these 15 minutes of work €6.

Monthly Trading Report

Trading profits for January was a very acceptable €60. This means my trading account is up 8% from 700 to 760 Euros.

Overall my discipline has been very good. Cutting losses short instead of waiting for a change in market directions that might never come. And usually never does. I have cut some winnings a little too short as well but better safe than sorry.

Suddenly the very close to kick off trading seems to work much better and I think probably half of my profits are from these late trades that previously caused me more losses than winnings. Maybe it's the more cautious approach that's paying off.

Tennis bet Basilashvili over Serra

Back Basilashvili @ 1.67 over Serra (Estimated price 1.40)

UPDATE: 60 63 for Basilashvili. I have no idea how the oddsmakers came up with this line but I say thank you for the gift. 

Kelly bet Penafiel v. Guimares

Back (2) @ 1.72 10:-

1-1

Pre match trade Arouca h. Sporting

Back 2 @ 1.50

Lay 2 @ 1.48

UPDATE: Win €4.50

Pre match trade Man United v. Leicester

Have been working on this one since Monday but now it seems to be in order. First placed a 1.35 back for United to get out at 1.34 but market moved one tick and I decided to get out at 1.35. Did so and market was still steady so I placed a new back @ 1.36 and got it matched last night. Placed a lay @ 1.35 and it's beginning to get taken now. Should be €3 when done.

Kick off trade Parma v. Juventus

Had two quick identical trades in the last 15 minutes before kick off in this Coppa Italia match.
The market moved in the 1.39-1.41 range with a small overweight on the up-side. To minimize the risk I placed a €400 lay @ 1.39 and traded out at 1.40. When completed I could do exactly the same trade once more for a €6 win.

Pre match trade Deportivo v. Granada

Backed the home team last night at 2.32 and got out this morning at 2.28. Money while you sleep.

Tennis bets AO R2

Groth @ 1.75 over Kokkinakis ((Groth in 5)

Anderson/Berankis O38.5 @ 1,96 (LOSS)


Goffin/Baghdatis O37.5 @ 1,99 (LOSS)

Chardy @ 1.58 over Seppi (Estimated price 1.45) (LOSS)

Troicki @ 1.68 over Mayer (Estimated price 1.45) (Troicki wins in 4)

Verdasco @ 1.19 over Soeda (Estimated price 1.18) (Verdasco wins in 3)

Nieminen @ 1.78 over Bachinger (Estimated price 1.71) (Nieminen in 3)

Johnson @ 1.48 over Giraldo (Estimated price 1.44) (Johnson in 3)

Monfils @ 1.41 over Janowicz (Estimated price 1.26) (LOSS)

UPDATE: I need to stop making these over/under bets. My model doesn't really have a good way of predicting this. Instead I have been choosing my bets from matches where I get pretty even match-ups. Anderson was a favorite to win over Berankis but were too low and Berankis had been playing well + Anderson is a fairly weak returner. Goffin and Baghdatis showed Goffin a slight favorite but these are two weak servers with good ground games. Should be long but a 6-0 4th set for Baggers ruined my day. I'll stick with match bet's in the future. My model seems to come up with fairly decent results there and often quite close to real odds. Troicki over Mayer showed a very big difference between the 1.68 offered and 1.45 I got, but he won, and fairly easy.

Kick off trade Sporting v. Rio Ave

Placed a lay @ 1.35 for Sporting half an hour before KO. Market moved one tick against me but since the match was streamed I waited for KO and could get out @ 1.37 at kick off. €8 profit here.

Tennis bets AO R1

Raonic -6.5 @ 1.90 over Marchenko - I think Raonic's return is quite underestimated and he's almost never broken so I think he should be able to cover this line.

Copil @ 2.08 over Andujar - Copil's been really good this year and hard court is not Andujar's favorite surface.

Nieminen/Golubev O 38.5 @ 1,92 - Niemo is an expert in long slam matches. Both players are in quite suspect form and are prone to be broken. Expect a lot of swings back and forth and atleast 4, probably five sets.

Bemelmans +2.5 sets 2 1,54 over Karlovic - Karlovic always play tight sets because of his very dominant serve and weak return game. Also he's not a tiebreak giant like for example Isner who wins close to 65% of his breakers. Karlovic is about average at 51%. Should be very possible for Bemelmans to get atleast one set.

UPDATE: Karlovic during his career won 9% of return games. Bemelmans somehow got broken 4 times in 14 service games, that's over 28%, something we usually see with strong returners, like Ferrer or Murray.

UPDATE: Raonic won in straights, but with two breakers. Another loss...

UPDATE: Copil win in straights so that's a win. Niemo also got it done in straight sets which is a loss.

Tennis bet

Kukushkin 2.05 over Troicki

UPDATE 26 36 Kukushkin's form from earlier this week missing in action. But I'm quite happy for Troicki who I believe was done really hard by the ATP on very shaky grounds. Well done!

Pre match trades

Back AFC Wimbledon @ 2.20 v. Carlisle. Placed an unmatched lay @ 2.16

Tennis bets

Ymer @ 2.16 over Chung
Darcis @ 1.50 over Melzer
Bedene @ 1.46 over Przysiezny

Ymer and Bedene won. Darcis lost.

Tennis bet Rufin v. Ouahab

Rufin @1.53 over Ouahab.

Odds here are actually slightly below my calculated price but I'll throw it in anyway. Rufin is a real talent who has been unlucky with injuries but when fit he's very very good. Ouahab on the other hand has spent most of his career on the challenger tour, never been in the top 100 and at 30+ he's unlikely to suddenly find a new level or two in his game.

 UPDATE: Very strange. Rufin won 59% of balls in the first set winning it 63 and then seemed to just fade away. 63 26 16. Dunno if it's a new injury or Ouahab just went into goat-mode.

Tennis bets

Copil @ 1.30 over Jasika 15:-
Kubot @ 1.67 over Marchenko 10:-

Kubot lost, Copil won

Tennis bets

Found some matches from the Aussie Open Q2 and hoping for better luck than last time i posted bets with 25% hit rate.

Alex Kuznetsov @ 1.62 over G. Melzer 10:-

Liam Broady @ 1.70 over J. Donaldson 10:-

Lukasz Kubot @ 1.81 over A. Nedovyesov 10 :-

Jürgen Melzer @ 1.30 over D. Munoz-de la Nava 20:-

UPDATE:
Broady win 76 67 64
Kubot win 64 63

Kuznetsov won 76 64

Melzer won 26 76 75

Better reading this! 4/4 even if Melzer made it a lot tougher than I had hoped. I know he is over the hill but Munoz on HC is... well not very good. But ok he took himself together and won in the end, no extra points for convincing victories.

Tennis bets

Today had a surprising shortage of matches I liked. A few more tomorrow.

Istomin v. Kukuskin @ 2.31 - My model suggests favorites are mixed up. Istomin comes up a 1.75 favorite to win so this looks like good value.

Same thing for Bellucci v. Vesely @ 2.33 where I think bookies overestimate the "hot young prospect" but imo he has not really delivered and Bellucci is no slouch even if he can be very erratic in performances.

Lu comes up a slight fav v. Monaco but is avaliable @ 2.06. Lu is defending a runner up position in Auckland and looked decent in Chennai. Monaco lost to Kavcic in Doha. Not that impressive.

Garcia-Lopez is made a huge favorite, below 1.20 in my model, mainly because the sample on Schwartzman on hard is very small and very unimpressive. Still 1.36 seems to give too much credit  to this challenger-level clay courter.

UPDATE: all lost so far. Lu plays later. Too early to tell if my model is faulty or these are just surprise results.

Ok so Lu win atleast but 1 from 4 is too poor. 

Tennis bet Federer v. Raonic +0,5 tiebreaks

Two strong servers, should be close backing a tiebreak to be played @ 1,57

UPDATE: 64 67 64

Kelly bet & Pre match trade Asteras Tripolis v. PAOK

Back (1) @ 2.40 12:-

Huge steam on the home team from 3.00 dogs to 2.40 favs and below. Backed big a 2.40 and traded out exactly 2 minutes later at 2.36 for a €3 win. Imagine if one could get that hourly pay all the time €180 an hour or €1400 per working day... keep on dreaming JB ;)

UPDATE: 3-0 Good win!

Tennis bet Golubev v. Smith

Backing Golubev to beat Smith in Sydney qualifiers @ 1.50

UPDATE: Golubev had the chance to serve it out in the 3rd set but choked. 36 76 67

Tennis bet Wawrinka v. Goffin o. 21.5

Back over 21.5 @ 1.81

Missed by one game 75 63

Tennis bet Berdych v. Ferrer

Berdych - 2.5 @ 1.71

Berdych from earlier this week not to be seen 46 57

Pre match trade Bristol C v. Notts Co

Back Bristol @ 1,57

UPDATE: Moved in the wrong direction. Out @ 1.59 for a 2 Eur loss.

Tennis bet Berdych v. Seppi u. 20.5

Birdman has been on fire here. Dismissing Gasquet 2 and 1 was really impressive. Seppi isn't unbreakable and shuold have a hard time with Bird's service.

1.75 standard sized bet.

62 63

Pre match trade GGL v. Bedene

Very close match but GGL should be a slight favorite. Actually got some juice on @ 2.04. Getting out @ 1.99, hopefully.

UPDATE: Yes that's 3 euros for me.

Tennis bet Dimitrov v. Klizan over 21,5

Backing overs with Dimitrov again. Klizan looks to be in good form and in that mood he can keep up with very good players and can be very tough to break when he's playing well. Dimitrov should be favored to win but 1.33 is just stupid considering how close it was with Chardy (who double faulted twice! on match points).

1,83 on overs standard sized bet.

UPDATE: 64 63 so that's a loss.

Tennis bet Tomic v. Kokkinakis

Backing Tomic @ 1,53
Kokkinakis looks good for the future but Tomic is a real beast in Brisbane.

UPDATE: 76 61

Pre match trade Ferrer v. de Bakker

Backing Ferrer @ 1.17 for €400 looking to trade out at 1.15 or even better at 1.14 if that's possible.

Good one. Out @ 15 to win 7 euros.

Tennis bet Dimitrov v. Chardy +22,5

My calculations show this match MUCH closer than the 1,37 on Dimitrov that's on offer. Add to that that Dimitrov plays more 3 setters than average players of his calibre and Chardy is tough to break. Wouldn't be surprised to see atleast one TB and this going to a third set. Long match on the cards here.

Standard sized bet at 2.01

UPDATE: 36 64 76

Tennis bet Lacko v. Bedene

My model is pricing up Lacko as a 1,60 favorite. Odds available at 1.74 so that's a decent margin.

67 36

Short words about this model I'm referring to. It's basically an excel sheet where I can enter various player data and stats, all in a pretty short time and out comes a probability calculation. My selection process is this:

* I scan tomorrows matches and look at the prices.
* If I find a match that looks interesting from a value PoV I have a closer look at the players' recent history.
* Usually the "value" comes from either player coming back from injury, is in dreadful for, or on a winning spree. If either of these are on the wrong side of my initial assumption the bet is off.
* If all looks alright I'll enter the numbers in my spreadsheet.
* If my calculations give a greater probability than the odds offered it's a bet. If not, well it's not a bet.

I feel this model should allow me to post stupid bets on instinct. You know the kind where you say SURELY Player A can't lose to Player B in any circumstance. Well he can and if it's not showing value it should not be a bet.

I'm still working on a way to transform Challenger level players' stats to the ATP-tour to avoid traps there. I have a few ideas that look decent enough but need to be tested more.

Reckless trading

I placed a pre match trade last night at de Bakker v. Dustov at a price I never thought would be matched. Turned out it was and when I remembered that bet it was way into the match. Fortunately for me I could get out with a pretty nice profit after de Bakker won the first set, but he was down a break in that set and things could have been much different. MUST NOT FORGET TO TRADE OUT MY PRE MATCH TRADES!

Tennis bets

Troicki @ 1.61 v. Kudla 46 26
De Bakker @ 1.75 v. Dustov 75 64

Pre match trade Nedunchezhian v. Bedene

These early tournaments have a lot of local wild cards and while the Indian ones are usually a class or two above for example the Quatari WC who goes about losing 60 61 to very average challenger players, they should not pose a serious threat to professional players like Bedene for example. The Slovenian was possible to back @ 1.12 on Betfair last night and I placed an immediate lay @ 1.11 to steal one tick and €4.

Tennis bet. Copil v Smyczek

My model says Copil small favorite. Odds say Smyczek @ 1.45. Doesn't add up. Very small bet on Copil @ 3.05

UPDATE: 63 76 So far the model is holding up very well. Still way to early to jump to conclusions though. 

Tennis bet Bozoljac v. v. d. Duim

Backing the Serbian to win this Q-match for Doha. My model prices him at 1.32 and since odds offered are 1.45 that's value assuming my model is correct, which is also what I intend to find out. :)

76 60

Going into 2015

I've been thinking alot about how to continue this project going into the new year and have decided on the following.

I will continue posting most of my pre match trades. I can't publish everyone because many of them are quite short in time, more of in and out trades and doesn't render much profits either. When I started this I had the ambition to post a graph each week of my trading developments. Now I set my ambition to update with a graph at the end of each month. Trading bank is €700 and when it reaches €1000 I will withdraw €50 for every €100 I win on top of that. €1000 is about the size of money I want to have tied up in this kind of business so it can grow slower after that and the exceeding profits can be used to stock market investments or a new pair of shoes or what ever.

The Kelly bet project will continue as well. At the moment I have a 120% ROI which is the best I've ever had at any betting spreadsheet. Probably says more about my limited betting skills but it's still a quite good profit and with 32 bets it's not just coincidence, there seems to be an edge here.

I don't do many live trades, I'm simply not very good at it so don't expect to see many of them here.

I will have another go at tennis betting. Since I posted my last bet during the US Open I've been reading alot of stuff about different strategies and specific player traits and I feel I want to try them out with live money in the new season which starts tomorrow. Stakes will be small and it's more a case of trying to be smarter than the market than making alot of money.

This is how I see this blog developing into 2015.