I've found the need to change my modelling since it's not producing the desired results. I think I've possibly underestimated the court speed factor in making my bets and will now not strictly be looking at numbers in my spreadsheet but also on the individual characteristics of each player.
It's well documented that slower surfaces favors "grinders". That is players who can rally for a long time and win points with stamina and points construction. Faster surfaces favors big servers and big hitters who can out hit their opponents and keep points short.
Looking back at this week's tournaments we have Quito which is played on clay, but on high altitude which makes it a quite fast venue. The final will be played between Lopez who has a hold/break ratio of 71 (over 70 would indicate a big server) and Estrella-Burgos who is rated 59 which would place him pretty much in the middle, but crucially higher than his only decent ranked opponents, Bellucci (55) and Klizan (58). The quick speed seems to have played a part in setting the final.
In Montpellier, also a fast venue but not extremely fast for IH we have the final between Janowicz (64) and Gasquet (61). Not extremely "quick" players although most would probably call Janowicz atleast to be a biggish server. Again, crucially they are rated higher for hold/break than their respective SF opponents, Monfils (58) and Sousa (56)
Zagreb is one of the slower IH tournaments and the final will be contested between Seppi (58) and Garcia-Lopez (54) both much closer to the "grinder" criteria below 50. Their SF were opponents Baghdatis (57) and Granollers (54) so given how close they are in their rating it's difficult to make conclusions. Still, to have an IH tournament final contested between Seppi and GGL is a surprise especially with biggish hitters like Dodig, Karlovic, Berrer, Muller and Troicki elimineted at or before the QF.
Looking ahead to the coming week we have three tournaments. Rotterdam and Memphis are quick IH venues. According to tennisinsight Rotterdam is the quickest with Memphis playing much like Montpellier. Sao Paolo is slower than Quito but not extremely slow for a clay court.
That means Sao Paolo should favor guys who can rally. Don't expect Lopez to make another final appearance. Guys like Berlocq, Cuevas, Monaco and Andujar should do well.
In Memphis big hitters like Johnson, Isner, Karlovic and Tomic should have a decent chance to go far.
Rotterdam is tough to read as there are lots of quality players there, for example Murray who is certainly not a big hitter but a generally superior player. Normally the top-half SF should be Murray v. Berdych, while Wawrinka and Raonic should deal with the bottom half.
Cuevas @ 1.68 over Vesely (EP 1.52) 64 36 75
Johnson @ 1.40 over Sela (EP 1.40, Court speed influenced bet) Sela W/O
Dodig @ 1.45 over Gabashvili (Court speed based bet) 62 62
Müller @ 2.43 over Goffin (Court speed based bet) 76 67 63
Almagro @ 1.43 over Rola (Surface and court speed based bet) 76 64
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