Tennis bet Lacko v. Bedene

My model is pricing up Lacko as a 1,60 favorite. Odds available at 1.74 so that's a decent margin.

67 36

Short words about this model I'm referring to. It's basically an excel sheet where I can enter various player data and stats, all in a pretty short time and out comes a probability calculation. My selection process is this:

* I scan tomorrows matches and look at the prices.
* If I find a match that looks interesting from a value PoV I have a closer look at the players' recent history.
* Usually the "value" comes from either player coming back from injury, is in dreadful for, or on a winning spree. If either of these are on the wrong side of my initial assumption the bet is off.
* If all looks alright I'll enter the numbers in my spreadsheet.
* If my calculations give a greater probability than the odds offered it's a bet. If not, well it's not a bet.

I feel this model should allow me to post stupid bets on instinct. You know the kind where you say SURELY Player A can't lose to Player B in any circumstance. Well he can and if it's not showing value it should not be a bet.

I'm still working on a way to transform Challenger level players' stats to the ATP-tour to avoid traps there. I have a few ideas that look decent enough but need to be tested more.