Monaco - Lorenzi (LIVE)

Lorenzi continues to pay well. Layed him after breaking to start the third set. Just felt like this would be one of those sets where breaks were traded back and forth after two tiebreak sets. Monaco broke back immediately and I greened out for another €2.

Wolves - Port Vale

Wow now things are really happening. Found this match after deleting a few unmatched bets where odds had gone too far out of the zone I wanted to get involved in. Wolves are on a nice winning streak while Port Vale have lost 3 of their last 5 games. 1.51 for Wolves at home looks like a very good bet to me. €190 matched at 1.51. I hope to lay off this in the mid 1.40's.

UPDATE: Mission accomplished. Layed of at 1.46 for a €6.5 profit on all outcomes. Good one!

Lorenzi - Dutra Silva (LIVE)

Quick live bet. Was pondering a straight bet on Lorenzi pre match but thought 1.55 was a little short. Dutra Silva came into this match after winning twice in a row as a dog and playing in his home town... nah. Dutra broke serve to lead 2-1 in the first set. Odds on Lorenzi moved up to 2.12 which I backed for €10 (my maximum risk for live bets) and then Lorenzi broke right back so I could sell everything back at 1.60. €2 on both players for a minutes' work.

Nottingham - Wigan

Saw Wigan priced at 3.55 early this week which seemed way too high for such a quality team even if Forest is in good form. Had about a tenner matched and quickly sold back at 3.40. Then the market popped back up again and I got another fiver matched which I'm trying to sell back at 3.35 which I think is the fair odds for this market. Overall it's been a difficult week to get matched but I've learned the hard way it's better to stay cool and rather not get matched at all than to take a worse price just to get in the market.

Atalanta - Chievo

Atalanta is usually a quite solid home team in the Serie A, winning 7 of 12 home games. Chievo has a completely different record away losing 7 of 13 winning just 2. Atalanta seems to be too high at 2.18 where I'm backing them. It's been tough to get matched here as well and so far I've only had €30 taken. This one should go down a little on Saturday or Sunday.

Tottenham - Cardiff O/U

I think this O/U market is slightly mispriced. Tottenham although sort of a top team doesn't score that many home goals, and actually have a negative ratio at home having scored just 15 goals in 13 matches and conceded 18. Cardiff's defence is leaking lots of goals but they aren't scoring many away from home either, just 7 in 13 matches. This has all the signs of a 1-0 or 2-0 home win so seeing the over 2.5 goals market at 1.79 looks like a good lay to me. It has been tough to get matched though, not much action yet as this is a Sunday match but I might get a few more quid matched and hopefully sold back in the low-mid eighties.

W3

Week three is over and despite the big loss on O/U Norwich - Tottenham today it's my best so far and the first one where I achieved the goal of earning 2% yield on my bank with a €11 result.

Everton - West Ham

Layed Everton at 1.49. Hammers have won 4 straight games and the home side isn't that good. Favorites obviously but not 66%.

UPDATE: Cashed this early. Seemed it was going to turn back down from 1.52 and I decided it was better to grab the €1.5 I had secured instead of waiting and maybe get nothing or even a loss from the market. I had hopes for more but green is green.

Norwich - Tottenham O/U

I've taken a quite big position @ 1.93 for under 2.5 goals in this match. Norwich both score and concede very few goals at home and Tottenham doesn't concede very many either. My calculation says that this price is very generous and could drop quite a bit come match day. Possibly the odds are inflated because of the 0-4 away win over Newcastle last week, but the Magpies have been horrible going 0-10 over their last 3 games. Terrible record so I'm thinking we shouldn't overestimate Spurs effort at St James'. I hope these odds should drop something like 10 points which would bring a huge profit, but we'll see as usual.

UPDATE: This went bad, for some reason odds just drifted out about 10 points which is a big loss for me. Will see how much I can save. Seems they might be coming back in a bit.

So far the week has been very positive. I've managed lots of smallish trades on both tennis and football, the type where you back something that feels a tad to high, get matched and then lay it all back 1 click lower and get on with it. Done quite well with those this week and it all adds up. Unless this Norwich trade goes completely wrong this should be, by far, my best week after two really poor weeks to start this new blog. 

UPDATE: Managed to save about €10 of my initial loss of €18 which it stood at when it was at it's worst point. Could back unders again at 2.10 for another €100 and lay it back at 2.04 so that saved about €6. Then I let part of the trade €20 ride at unders and sold it off over the first half of the game, which ended 0-0. Net result is a €8 loss for the market. Still completely confused to why the unders odds drifted out 17 points from Saturday to Sunday. That's a massive drift for no apparent reason, and the game will probably end under 2.5 which means I was right from the beginning. But second half is on now so we'll see. I won't trade this one anymore. 

UPDATE: Yes the game ended 1-0 which is slightly annoying when you lose money despite being right from the beginning.

Cuevas - Fognini

Second round match played tomorrow afternoon. Surprised to get matched on Fognini at 1.31. The italian is up and down in his matches but comes from a title and a runner up showing in the Golden Swing so is obviously in great form. On clay Fognini is really a player to be counted upon and Cuevas is not near this level. I find it highly unlikely that the Fog will lose this and this market should trade well into the 1.20's before the first serve is fired.

UPDATE: Quicker than expected. Thought I would have to wait to cash out until tomorrow but now it's all green at 1.27 and another €2 in the pocket.

Esbjerg - Fiorentina

Europa-League Thursday. Danish league play has not commenced yet and the home side is up against a good serie A team in the middle of their season. Fiorentina should have a very good chance to win this match and odds of 1.75 are too generous. Backed Violas for €100.

UPDATE: Greened at 1.72 for a €2 profit. This week is starting out rather nicely.

W2

Managed to gain a €2 profit for the week with a late trade on Lille-Marseille. Saw Lille drifting about 2h before kick off and got some juice matched at 2.16. Got out at 2.22 soon after. Two weeks into this blog I'm up €7 which is well below my expectations but it's still something.

Porto - Eintracht Frankfurt

The advantage of being a small fish is that you can go early into markets that have hardly seen any activity yet. When I entered this market under €100 had been matched in total. Match is played on Thursday. Porto is always a very tough home team, placed P3 in the Portugese league and with one draw the only mistake at home. Frankfurt on the other hand is a mid-bottom team in the Bundesliga and should have little to offer in this match. Backed Porto with €100 at 1.54 and I believe this is a market that will steam next week. Would expect a Kick Off price at around 1.45 or thereabouts so this could mean a very nice profit.

UPDATE: Green @ 1.46 and a 4 Euro profit on this market.

Nottingham - Leicester

Bit of a tricky trade here. First backed Leicester at 2.98 for a fairly big €150 bet which was taken worringly fast. Then the match started trading in the 3.0-3.10 range mostly with quite small stakes. Decided to place a larger bet at 3.10 which was partly matched and to take everything small that surfaced on 3.05 to keep my big lay at 3.00 first in the queue. Bit of a risky strategy should the odds drift even more but I felt the risk was quite small given that Leicester is the team to beat in the Championship this year. Even if Nottingham is in fine form over 3 seemed a tiny bit too much. Below 33% for a team with 4-1-0 over their last five games and heads the table 10 points clear of P2 is just not right.

The strategy paid off and I eventually got my lay at 3 filled and brought home a quite petty €1 for the market. Had hopes for more but in trading greed is a deadly sin.

Nishikori - Karlovic

Memphis finals. Got an opportunity to scalp the market. There was a gap of a back price 1.51 and a lay price 1.54 which I could fill with €200 on 1.52 and 1.53. Both were taken and the profit is €1.50 no matter who wins the title.

Wigan - Barnsley

Have to take Wigan at 1.72. Got 60 Euros matched before odds dropped. Now 1.69 but I think they will drop more. If I can get out at 1.66 or so that'd be great.

UPDATE: Green much sooner than I expected. 1.66 still too high? Anyway, this provides a €2 profit for the match.

Ferrer - Giraldo

Rather quick trade on Ferrer. Backed him at 1.14 last night for €250 and sold it back at 1.13 this morning. Wins just over €2 whatever the result.

Also had a nervous live trade at Almagro - Gimeno Traver. Got in all wrong backing Almagro at 3 down 1-6 3-3 on serve in the second set. Then Almagro calls the physio and odds skyrocket to 4.5 which sets me back quite abit. Didn't play well after that for a couple of games and even if he held on thanks to his serve odds didn't get back down enough. So with Almagro serving to stay in at *45 I backed DGT. Obviously Almagro held and then DGT forgot how to play tennis and got broken.

Then he got broken again serving first in the 3rd set and odds on Almagro was 1.20. So that's deep shit for me. Couldn't reverse the trade again and back Almagro at those short odds because that would have set me like €50 back on an injured player. Only hope to lay Almagro at 1.20 and hope DGT would break back. Luckily for me he did and I could get out with a €2 win from the market. Almagro went on to win the match. Without break back I would have been €10 out of pocket. I always do my live trading with very small stakes and I try never to risk  more than €10 on a single trade which is a very good rule because it's easy to get caught up in a bad trade. This time it ended well but it's a good reminder to be careful with live matches.

Motherwell - Partick

Sometimes there are some good stuff in the Scottish Premiership. All is not just Celtic, most of the time everyone expect them to win so there is rarely any value in backing them. I like this matchup however. Behind Celtic there is Aberdeen and Motherwell fighting for P2. Motherwell lost to Celtic which is acceptable, everyone does, and drew against Aberdeen. Partick is playing alot of draws lately, four from the five last games, but against much worse opponents. Last time the two teams met Motherwell won 1-5 away. Convincing enough now that they are the hosts of this match. I have my back for €200 at 1.86. Pinnacle opened their odds at 1.87 which is a miscalculation but the average odds are still just 1.76 for the home team and IMO this shouldn't be over 1.80 for the home win.

UPDATE: Another poor trade here. Motherwell picked up some first team injuries and when the news of this came out odds drifted quite badly from 1,86 up to starting odds of 2.06 or thereabouts. Didn't follow it all the way out but still a hefty €8 loss for the market. Motherwell still won 4-3.

Thankfully tennistrading has been decent and despite a horrid week I'm just €1 out of pocket, which is sort of a miracle. 

Stoke - Swansea

Managed to erase my post.

Backed Stoke at 2.66 because they have shown good form and Swansea is usually quite poor on the road. However it seems the market values Swansea higher than I do and the market has stabilized at 2.72-2.74. I'll try to reverse my bet with a big lay at 2.72 and hopefully to back it off later at 2.74. I hope this works cause if not it will be an expensive mistake.

UPDATE: Reversal was partly successful as I managed to trade off some of my negative position. Twice I could lay at 2.72 and back at 2.76. Unfortunately I didn't play it cool enough because this afternoon from nowhere really the odds just shot up to 2.90. Might be a new injury that triggered the odds to rise but I'm not sure. I just can't understand why Stoke that is a quite decent home team should be priced as a dog against Swansea. Have to accept defeat and a negative €-5 on this market. Could have been much worse.

W1

First week of this new project has come to an end. Net result below expectation. That mistake on Giraldo-Mayer was costly and erased half the profit for the week. Bank is up 1% or €5.

I have already secured €3 for next week on Huddersfield v. Wigan

Sheffield W - Wigan

Sheffield is in fine form and started as 3.05 dogs despite beating Reading away today. Wigan lost to Huddersfield and has been in poor form. Sheff W is 3-2-0 over their last five games. Wigan has suffered bad away losses to Huddersfield and Doncaster and I think the market will realise this poor form. Sheffield should steam and anything above 2.90 should be a good entry.

UPDATE: Greened out at 2.80 for a €3 profi. Sadly my full €150 stake wasn't taken. That would have been a wicked good trade. Had to settle for €45 matched but still a decent retun on investment. 

Gasquet-Monfils

Finals in Montpellier between two home-favorites. I've managed to get a fine entry at 1.92 for Gasquet which currently is the highest matched bet on the market. It's already down to 1.78 and I hope to get out closer to 1.70 but we'll see where it goes. Monfils is a fine player but has a terrible record in finals. I think the market will spot this and go heavy on Gasquet.

On a less positive side I got it all wrong with the semi-final between Giraldo and Mayer in Vina del Mar tonight. I rate Giraldo higher than Mayer (even if he beat Robredo in R2) and backed him for 1.96. Luckily I kept my stakes down which I usually do on these close to evens markets because they are tricky. Giraldo is now up to 2.22 an hour before start. I got out this afternoon but this is a €-4 market for me.

UPDATE: Greened out Gasquet @ 1.78 for a €1.50 profit. Quite a shame I couldn't get more of my stake matched. Just about €50 from €200 was taken. 

Valencia - Betis

Time to move to other markets. England is usually good early in the week with decent ammounts of British money coming into Betfair markets quite early. Spain is usually the second market I enter, usually Wednesday och Thursday. Valencia is a decent home team, and beat Barcelona at Camp Nou 2-3 in their latest match. Betis has scored 2 points away and is dead last in the series. Backed Valencia at 1.50 hoping to trade a couple of ticks lower as Saturday approaches. Right now markets are temporarily higher (1.51) and maybe I'll up my stake at higher odds if I can. I fully expect this market to steam on Saturday when bettors bring their money. Right now it's probably traders playing some tricks up and down so I'm not overly worried atm.

UPDATE: Could close some out at 1.50 but I had to take a few Euros at 1.51 so a small €-0.50 loss on this market.

Aston Villa - West Ham O/U

Aston Villa takes on West Ham at home. Two teams that score relatively few goals. Villa has scored 12 goals in 12 home games. West Ham 9 goals in 12 away games. Defences aren't great but they have only conceded 19 (AV) and 14 (WHU). Signs point towards under 2.5 goals, a 1-1 draw or similar and I think that 1.93 on under is too generous. Matched for €100 with a lay-bet out at 1.90 to green out with a three click profit.

UPDATE: Seems market thinks otherwise. Gone up and I decided to close it with a one tick loss (-€0.50)

Sunderland - Hull

Nice away win for Sunderland v. Newcastle last week. The team seems to be rounding into form nicely now. Hull isn't doing well on the road and have scored a mere 5 points and even struggled in the fa-cup clash with Southend. I think starting odds at 2.18 for the home side is too generous. I have a 200 Euro back and hope to trade out at around 2.10ish later this week.

UPDATE: Already Green on this market. I usually don't close trades this early in the week but there were other opportunities to try out aswell so I placed a lay-bet at 2.14 which was taken quite quickly.  €4 in the bag which is a 2% overnight return on my invested €200. 

Port Vale - Swindon

Port Vale are 4-1-1 for their 6 last Home Games. Swindon is 0-2-4 for their last 6 Away Games. 2 points separate the two teams in the League 1 table. Swindon P8 and Port Vale P9. Form is poor for the visitors, the team suffering a poor home defeat to Oldham. Initial markets price Port Vale as a 2.85 dog. I don't really understand this since Vale is a strong home team, and Swindon a rather weak away team, scoring just 10 points on the road so far this season. I've backed Port Vale for €100 @ 2.88 and expect to see the team steam during the week.

I also have a very small €8 bet om Monfils-Kubot @ 1.15, expect to trade out at 1.13 for a tiny tiny profit but that's all that got filled for me at my desired price.

UPDATE: Trade closed for a €4.50 profit no matter how the game ends. Possibly I could have gotten even more from this since odds dropped sharply during the night. Greened out @ 2.74 for a 14 ticks profit which is very a very good margin. Analysis seems to have been spot on as the favorite in the game has reversed with Swindon now traded as a 2.80ish dog.

Introduction to this Blog

For quite a while, a couple of years atleast I have managed the Swedish Blog "borsochbetting" roughly meaning stock market and betting. When I started it the purpose was to keep track of my Tennis Betting record as well as sharing my thoughts on the Swedish Stock Market. This worked very well for three years and I was doing very well, especially with the Tennis Stuff, although stakes were quite small up to €10 per bet or so I made a solid profit, not enough to quit my day-job, far from it but still very respectable results.

In 2013 however things started to go wrong. For reasons unknown to me my strike rate fell by a couple of percent which was the difference between making a profit and making a loss. Before I got too far into that trying to chase back lost money with silly bets I decided to take a break from betting and collect my thoughts on what to do.

By then I had started following another Blog in Swedish by a bloke who did quite well trading on Betfair. I was never very good at this especially not in the in-play markets which frequently gave me small wins and bigger losses. Plus with a job and a family it wasn't really a good idea because it takes alot of time, usually in all the wrong times of day.

The solution was to take my experiences from tennis betting into pre-match trading of tennis matches and try to predict the way odds will move instead of predicting outcomes. There's nothing more frustrating for a bettor than to do a fine analysis and wager on a match only to have the player under perform or choke while trying to close out the match. With pre-match trading I don't have to since positions will be closed before the match begins.

I've been doing this for about six months focusing on tennis and football (soccer for those who believe football is played using hands and a mis-shaped "ball") and now I believe it's the time to go public with my work.

My goal is quite simple, to achieve a weekly profit of 2% at a low risk. This may not seem much but it has proven a quite realistic target and so far I'm up about 55%. This Blog is called A Small Fish because that's what I am. My total trading bank as of today is about €500 which obviously is a fair sum of money that could buy me five nice pairs of shoes or more than a months worth of food for my family etc but compared to the sums the "Big Fish" are trading it's just pennies.