Cuevas v. Lindell, Johnson v. Ito

The young Swede did well to beat Cervantes in R1 although that had more to do with the terrible level of play from the Spaniard than supreme class from Lindell. For example Cervantes served 8 double faults in 9 service games. Lindell played the way one can expect from a player ranked outside the top 400. Mixing good shots with quite simple errors, in general though he was much more consistent and patient than Cervantes and it paid off.

Cuevas is a whole different beast. He's quickly coming back into the top 100 after solid results on clay this year and he was once a top 50 player. As a Swede I hope I'm proven wrong and that Lindell can cause another upset but I think it's time for a reality check. I could back Cuevas at a market high 1.17 last night and traded out at 1.14 for a €8 win.

I also backed the in form American Steve Johnson at 1.44 last night to beat Ito of Japan. Had part of my lay taken at 1.37 and is waiting to close out the rest of the trade. Should be a win of over €10 if I can get the rest of my lay taken at 1.37. I've got until 5 pm so I can wait.

Rain interrupted play all day in Stuttgart and I could shave off €2 from my loss on Gimeno v. Gojowczyk with a quick scalp. Still a bad loss for me though.

Amends

Well I know the term "win back your losses" doesn't exist but still it's nice to get some winning trades done so soon after a terrible one.

Got €4 on Suarez-Navarro v. Siegemund and €3 on Isner v. Odesnik. That's something to start this weeks recovery with.

Gojowczyk - Gimeno

Some rotten luck on this one. Normally Gimeno is a much superior clay court player compared to Gojowczyk who does a better job on quicker surfaces. He was good in Doha which is a quicker HC, won the Heibronn challenger which is also quick and advanced to QF at Halle beating Raonic in the process. As far as I can see he's never won a main draw ATP-match on clay.

Good bet on Gimeno then? Well apparently (if one should believe a post on Tennis Insight) Gimeno got married on Saturday so perhaps bettors think he'd either be hung over or mentally on a honeymoon, possibly both and markets raced away way above where I bet on Gimeno. Had to close out a €20 loss which will almost certainly make this a lost week where I'd be happy to get out with a break even.

W21

Quite a tidy week. I made a total of 7 trades which is quite few but that's how it is during the second week of a slam. All 7 trades were winners which is nice. Profit was not great but a fairly average €14. Bank is increasing and that's the important thing.

So far during this week I've already secured a €5 profit on Eriksson v. Lorenzi, €2 on Mayer v. Berrer and €0.5 on Berlocq v. Reister. I'm also active in the Gojowczyk v. Gimeno market but have yet to close the trade. Match is tomorrow so there is plenty of time.

Federer - Raonic

I tried to get matched on Federer at 1.45 and I did get some of my stake taken. Fed started a 1.31  favorite v. Wawrinka. Too low odds IMO and the match could have ended differently but from the second set there was clearly something wrong with Wawrinka and Fed won in four sets. Wawrinka is a better player than Raonic but the Canadian's serve is really dangerous on the grass. Could be a few points here and there in the breakers that decide this match and those kinds of matches where a superior player (Federer) is up against a very big server with poorish return game (Raonic) are usually priced in the mid 1.30's. I like a margin for error so I came up with 1.45 as a price I considered both safe and possible to get matched. Acutally my €45 are the highest traded bets at this market with some margin. Market seems to like 1.39-1.40 so I got 3-4% higher odds and that is about what one can expect to have matched in this kind of well analyzed match. That's why it's so difficult to find the line between not getting matched, getting matched for a winning trade and getting matched for a losing trade. It's really just a few odds steps between the three possible outcomes of a placed bet. This one will earn €2 thanks to the low amount matched.

Raonic - Kyrgios

Surprise QF here. Probably most people believed Nadal would defeat the 19 year old Nick Kyrgios from Australia but they were proved wrong. However this gave me an opportunity to step in in the very early markets. I studied how markets priced the two players before this match during the tournament and found that Kyrgios should be given a slighly better chance that v. Gasquet (23%). 1/3 seemed a fair price and would give a line with Raonic (1.50) v. Kyrgios (3.00). As a very early market with lots of uncertainties I placed a very small bet on Raonic at 1.62, was matched, did something else and checked back 10 minutes later and greened out at €1.5 profit at 1.47. Found these odds to low because bookies had come up with their lines and were raising their prices on Raonic from low 1.40's so I placed slightly larger lay bet at the same price and once again greened out 10 minutes later at 1.51. Since it was all small stakes I only win €2.50 but this is one trade I feel quite proud about.

Looks like I've had a normal sized bet on Murray (v. Dimitrov) matched at 1.32 while typing. I'll place a lay bet at 1.31 because there is one heap of cash laying at 1.30 and I'd rather not mix it there. Hopefully that's another €2 when I wake up.

UPDATE: Yes, green on Murray.

Cautious week

Wise from the tough second slam week at the French I've been very cautious with my staking. Result? 0/3 bets matched. But really that is better than taking losses. Did get a decent one matched on Sunday for the Cilic v. Chardy match. Backed the Croat big at 1.40 and sold at 1.36 to net 8E50. Will get at it again tonight and see what I can do. But during the second week of slams it's difficult to get matched on "wrong" odds because markets are very efficient and well analyzed.