Pre match trade Norwich v. Reading

Lay Norwich @ 1.7 - I think the home team is too short here. Norwich only have one win from the last five and won only 3 games at home all season, drawing 5. Reading are not great on the road but 1.7 is still giving the Canaries too much credit imo.

Pre match trades

Swansea v. Crystal Palace - Lay Swansea @ 1,82
I don't think that Swansea deserve to be a 55% favorite. Swansea are not all that great and CP are no whipping boys.

Update: Selling off at 1.84-1.85. I had hoped for a bigger drift but it's something. 

Kidderminster v. Wrexham - Back Kidderminster @ 2.20
Home team in good form. Wrexham haven't won for five matches. Should be moved closer to 2.10 or hopefully even lower tomorrow.

Update: Sold off some at 2.14 will try some more at 2.1. Looking quite good. 

Update2: Out at 2.10 which was slightly too soon. Trading at 2.04 now. Still €7 in the bank.

 Macclesfield v. Torquay - Lay Torquay @ 2.50
Dunno what the odds makers are going on about here. Macclesfield are undefeated for their last 5 matches and with HFA. They are P4 in the league and have not lost at home all season. Torquay P10, playing away. They did beat Barnet away a few rounds ago but followed it up with two less than impressive draws. I would price this the other way around.

Update: Started selling off Torquay at 2.6 in small steps should it go higher.

Update2: Gone totally mad it's down to 2.30 now, probably Macclesfield has collective bird-flu or something. I got some sold at 2.6 which kind of saves my day but I had to sell a bit at 3.36 and I will be €5 down on this one. 

Pre match trades

This time I seem to have found everything moving in the wrong direction with pin point accuracy.

Plymouth v. Portsmouth - Back (1) @ 2.26: Plymouth are P6 with a 6-1-1 home record and 3-2-0 from their last five games. A 1-1 away draw to Burton is very acceptable. Portsmouth had a few tough matches losing to Shrewsbury and Bury and their wins v. Carlisle and Stevenege are expected. They are 2-1-2 last five, and 1-3-4 on the road this season. A fairly weak away team playing a very strong home team. I'd expect odds closer to 2.15 than 2.30 in a match like this. Market seems to think otherwise atm, but it could correct itself when the big money comes in tomorrow. Still low volumes.

UPDATE: Well it bounced back down to 2.26 and I opted out. +-0 from this trade.

Coventry v. Notts Co - Lay (1) @ 2.16: Coventry are 1-1-3 from their last five. P19 in the league table. Decent home record 4-2-2. Notts lost to Walsall last match, which was unfortunate but won their previous 4. They are undefeated on the road this season boasting 4 wins and 3 draws. I see no reason why a weak team like Coventry should give Notts their first away loss and expected odds closer to 2.30, market again thought otherwise.

UPDATE: Had a chance to get out at 2.14 and took it. I'll get a small €-1,50 loss from this market. Could have been alot worse!

Lesson learned. Don't enter small markets too soon. Don't panic when low volumes of money push the market the wrong way. See it as an opportunity to buy.

Pre match Kidderminster v. Aldershot

Backed the home team last night at 2.22. Sold it at 2.12 this morning for 6 Eur profit.

Pre match trade Grimsby v. Halifax

These mid week games with few bigger teams in action can provide opportunities in the smaller leagues. In this case English Conference Premier (5th division). I identified three games I wanted to trade but only got matched on  my desired price in this one.

Backed Grimsby @ 2.12 and about to trade out with avg. odds 2.03 for a €6.5 profit. I already sold off half my liability at 2.06 and the rest of it is slowly getting taken at 2.00. Good one today.

Late pre match trade Nacional v. Benfica

Found a good opportunity in the Portuguese league earlier tonight. Rather solid support level at 1.60 and even for a class team like Benfica that's on the low side for an away game. Most of all though this was a technical analysis of how the market had moved. Placed a lay at 1.61 and cashed out at 1.68 for a €9 win. Just as last time the trade is shown in Swedish Krona.

Late pre match trade Fiorentina v. PAOK

Good support level at 1.54 for Fiorentina. Could lay it twice for €300 each time and cash out at 1.55 the first time and 1.56 the second time. Profit close to €6

Picture below shows the trade in Swedish Krona.

Pre match trade Spezia v. Crotone

Backing the home team to win at 2.12. Looks like value to me. Should trade closer to evens tomorrow if I called it right.

UPDATE: Not moving. Out at 2.12

Pre match trade Beira-Mar v. Trofense

Solid mid-table team v. the worst team in the league.

Back Beira-Mar @ 1.97

UPDATE: Out too early again. At 1.93 for a 3 EUR win.

Pre match trade Fulham v. Blackpool

Fulham are certainly not setting the world on fire but Blackpool are terrible. They have bagged 6 points from 15 games, losing 11 of them. I'd suspect some backers will like Fulham with the argument that they might not be great but surely much much better than Blackpool.

Back (1) @ 1.60

Live trade Zaragoza v. Tenerife

Did this one last night. Didn't have time to post then.

Layed Zaragoza for 50:- @ 2.24 before kick off and sold off when Tenerife scored an early goal. €2 profit.

Pre match Leeds v. Charlton

Really quick one. Layed Leeds @ 2.34 and  sold of at 2.38 almost immidiately.

€2 profit.

Live trade Torpedo Moscow v. Arsenal Tula

Drift on the home team pre match. Lay Torpedo for 50 @ 2.24.

Gradually sold off my position up to 2.70 30 minutes into the match.

Win 5.50:-

Pre match trades

Brighton v. Wigan - Lay (1) @ 2.36 Brighton didn't win any of their last five games. Wigan didn't lose any of theirs. Combined they have played 7 draws from the last 10 games. Wigan does have poor away stats this season but beat Derby 1-2 in their last match on the road. Can't quite see why odds shouldn't be quite a lot closer here. Expect Brighton to trade over 2.40 at some point.

UPDATE: Market liked Brighton. Made a double trade where I first placed a lay lower @ 2.30 which was taken and then traded off some juice at 2.34 which further reduced my liability. In the end I had to take a €-0.5 loss selling of my last position at 2.30.

Birmingham v. Waford - Back (2) @ 2.28 Watford are at the top of the table. Birmingham did well to rebound with a goal less draw v. Wolves after a shocking 0-8 defeat at home in the hands of Bournemouth. Watford won the last 4 H-H and draws away to fellow top team Middlesbrough and and the strong home side of Nottingham are acceptable. Birmingham picked up only five points at home this season and when Watford comes to visit they are likely to take another loss. I'm looking to cash out in the low 2.20's.

UPDATE: Seemed to go the wrong way. Out at the same price.

Kelly bet Mönchengladbach v. Hoffenheim

Back (1) @ 1.90 5:-

UPDATE: Home win 3-1 

Pre match trades

Hamilton v. Partick - Back (1) @ 1.90
UPDATE: Miscalculation here. For some reason I'm yet to understand table leaders Hamilton playing at home v. P9 placed Partick traded up quite alot from 1.90 which seemed generous to start with. Hamilton 3-1-1 from the last 5 games and at home this season. Partick is 1-1-3 and only managed one draw on the road all season. It's strictly not part of the trading strategy but I'm so convinced Hamilton will win that I will cash out to leave all the red on X2 and +-0 on the home team. The difference is either -€18 on all selections or -€35 on X2 and it seems worth the bet somehow.
UPDATE2: Hamilton took an early 2-0 lead and I laid off some of my money but still left a bigger red on X2. Stupid as it turned out. The match ended 3-3. Lost €18 on this one. 


Dundee v. St. Mirren - Back (1) @ 1.88 UPDATE: Lay @ 1.87 to win €1
Rochdale v. Preston - Back (2) @ 2.48 UPDATE: Lay @ 2.50 to lose €1.50
Notts County v. Walsall - Back (1) @ 2.82 UPDATE: Lay @ 2.78 to win €2