W20

Positive week but it should have been better. I had to take a quite big loss on Petkovic v. Bouchard yesterday. I simply underestimated how much the market loves the young Canadian. On paper they had similar form. Both were eliminated in the semis of the French. Petko had 3-0 HH going into the match. Bouchard slightly higher ranked and should be favored to win (she did in straights) but I surely did not have the market in the low to mid 1.40's. First odds from bookies opened at 1.53 which seemed low IMO. A lay bet at 1.55 was quickly taken and odds dropped down towards 1.50. When it broke under I thought - Well surely it can't go lower than this! This is a 1.60 favorite ffs! and I placed another lay bet at 1.49 which was also quickly taken and the market continued to go even lower. Bottomed out at 1.43-1.44  and then turned back up. I got out at 1.47 but lost over €12 on this market alone. Almost a full week's profits.

Still I got away with €8 for the week because of some Swedish football this afternoon. Not what I had hoped for but ok, it's another green week.

Wimbledon Thursday

Win 4 on Isner. Lose 4 on Vekic. Nothing more to add.

Wimbledon Wednesday

Matched on two trades again. Had my full €150 stake taken on Garcia (v. Lepchenko) at 1.95. I entered this market very early, before bookies had any odds to compare with. Just one or two of the first high margin bookies were up but their odds are so low they are not much to go on. Operating with a 8% margin there is much room for error in their lines. This is a more risky strategy but I felt quite confident that I had the match correctly valued with Garcia as a narrow favorite. The bet was taken very quickly which kind of made me nervous because usually the bad bets are taken first but soon after that the more major bookies with higher payout published their odds, just as I expected with Garcia a narrow favorite and soon after that they lowered their odds slightly pricing Garcia as a 1.85 favorite. Good news and I placed a lay bet at 1.87 to adjust for commission and went to bed. All clear this morning and €6.5 green on both women.

I also had a small part of my 1.13 bet on Sharapova (v. Bacsinsky) matched. Could green out a €1 profit this morning at 1.10. So far a very solid week.

Wimbledon Tuesday

I had a lot of very small stakes matched on several markets. Could cash them for about €0.10 each so nothing to write about. Two markets got some more money taken. These were

• Gimeno-Traver v. Giraldo - Neither is a natural grass player but Giraldo has much more merits on the surface and a healthy 6-1 in the HH. Gimeno hasn't won a match on grass since 2011. I backed Giraldo at 1.28 and was hoping to get out at 1.25ish. We'll see what happens. There is a decent amount waiting at 1.27 and not much activity in the market. Might have to settle for one click or even get out again at 1.28.
• Falla v. Pavic - Falla is actually a quite competent grass player, reaching the finals in Halle a few weeks ago losing in two tiebreaks to Federer. Pavic has done fairly well in qualifiers and challengers this year but is yet to win a md match. Hard to believe it will happen today. I backed Falla at 1.37 and had about €85 matched. Trying to get out at 1.34. Should be possible to do. It's small steps but they are steps.

Wimbledon Monday

Got matched in three markets during my first Wimbledon trading day which started yesterday with Monday's matches. I entered five different markets, but as I said was only matched in three of them.
These were:

• Erakovic v. Konjuh where I backed Erakovic at 1.66 and could trade out at 1.61. Sady I had only a very small stake matched and I net €1 for the market.
• Barthel v. Oprandi where I had a decent part of my bet for Barthel taken at 1.24 but not the full ammount. I have laid off about half of it at 1.22 and I'm waiting for the rest to be taken. Should be around €3.5 if I can get all matched at 1.22.
• Davis v. Kleybanova - I backed Davis at 1.46 for a smallish stake which was good because markets didn't like Davis quite as much as last week. I could get out of most of my trade at 1.46 when it started to turn against me but I had to lay off the last liability at 1.51 for a -€1 loss. 

Average trading day. Matched in 60% of my markets, although not for 60% of my stakes and two correct bets and one incorrect. No trader will ever win all his trades, the important thing is to be right more often than not and to cut losses and maximize winnings. That however is easier said than done.

UPDATE: Well finally I got all my lay money on Barthel taken and all green for €3.5. Took much longer than I thought it would.

W20-21

I just noticed that I forgot to update the graph last week so it will be a 2 week update. Up another €50 to pass the €800 mark.

Germany v. Ghana

Cashout at 1.33. Too much lay money entered at 1.33 and not enough back money at 1.34 so I decided to get out. Unfavorable WoM is a bad indication. Better safe than sorry and another 6 Euro won.

Switzerland - France

Cash out at 1.81 just as according to plan. €8.5 secured no matter how the match ends. Going towards a very good week here.

Germany - Ghana, Switzerland - France

I didn't find anything good on today's tennis. Markets seemed to be where they should so I decided to have a closer look at the WC instead. Germany bounced up from 1.30 to 1.35 for no apparent reason in their match v. Ghana. That looks like a good entry. The team impressed v. Portugal and no one in their right mind would think that the match could end in any other way than a German victory. So we have a technically sound entry level at 1.35 which acts like a resistance level and the big team effect that should be exaggerated when kick off comes closer and the casual bettors enter the market on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see starting odds below 1.30 on Germany. Right now I'm matched on 25% of my stake at 1.35 and the queue is building up behind me which is nice.

Same thing occurred on Switzerland v. France. The French had been trading in the low 1.80's and then odds rose back up to 1.89. 1.90 acts as a resistance level and I could get my full stake matched at 1.89. France obviously is the superior team and I expect odds to drop back down again when more money enter the market. Realistically most money should enter on France pushing their price back down towards the low 1.80's. Right now we're at 1.87 to back and 1.88 to lay.

I've also taken a position on the Austrian F1-race following my usual strategy of laying Alonso. Pre race markets always seem to love the Spaniard and IMO he's the best and most complete driver in the field but the car is not up for the job. It's expensive to lay at 36 but after practice odds should be much higher. Should be at least at 75 when the five red lights go out. As always weather can play a part and if conditions look bad I'll get out sooner, playing it safe. With dry conditions realistically both Mercedes and both Red Bulls should be ahead of the Ferraris. Possibly one or both Williams or Button's McLaren could be up there as well. In any case Fernando should be at best in the third row after Q.

Italy - Costa Rica (Technical Trade)

Some strange market behavior on Italy v. Costa Rica yesterday. Could cash in some money on trading support and resistance levels. I could identify 1.60 as an initial support level once the market settled down (blue line). This was then broken and acted as a resistance level (red line). Then market traded well below for a while before sharply turning up and bouncing off the resistance level at 1.60 again. I backed Italy for 1.60 and placed a lay bet at 1.56 straight away and was matched a little while ago. €4 on all outcomes. Easy money and on top of the technical case for this trade I've noticed that the market loves the "big" teams in this WC. Even Spain which was hopeless v. Netherlands playing a Chile that impressed in their first game steamed from 1.75 to 1.60 at kick off, and went on to lose 0-2.

Crazy markets

Mentioned my successful trade on Young v. Ward. I had no idea what moved the market in Ward's favor and then something even more weird happened.

My entry was the first plateau at 2.00-2.02 and then the market moved sharply down all the way to 1.77. Silly me traded out at 1.93 but since I could not fundamentally explain why the market loved Ward so much I'd rather play it safe than get caught out on the rebound. The rebound came and moved the market all the way up to 2.00-2.02 again. This screen is just before the match started. Young won easy in straights.

I can only explain this with psychology. Something or someone made the market believe that Ward was really hot for this. Markets with traditional bookies opened with Ward a 2.20 dog but Betfair only traded small money at this price. Probably this caused bookies to drastically lower their prices on Ward and then people started believing something was wrong with Young or something and the more the markets steamed the more convinced punters got that Ward was huge value. Until someone realized it was not so. A classic double bottom at 1.77-1.76 and up it went. You could write an essay on technical analysis with this market alone. The trick is to read this while it happens, not like me, when I know what happened next. Still, I got away with €10 from the market so I can't complain.

Support-line
Resistance-line
Double bottom indicates trend reversal
Trend-line  

Win or Lose?

I've had two very strange weeks here but hopefully things have turned back in my favor now. Two weeks ago I had my first losing week since the start of this blog. Last week looked better but then I lost all my weekly profits on Federer-Falla. I believed it would be a close match (Fed won 76 76) and that odds would be slightly higher than where they started (1.12ish with Pinnacle). I got a chance to lay Fed for 1.11 but then odds dropped rapidly to 1.09 and despite a long wait and putting my hopes on "lay the favorite" traders odds never rose up again and I had to take the loss.

Then I scored my highest ever win on the very dull Nigeria-Iran WC game. Sunday night with the Fed-disappointment still in mind I found odds on Nigeria at 2.26, way to high for team full of international stars playing against an Iranian team of mostly domestic players. I was right and could cash out half my stake at 2.00 and the rest at 1.95. The match ended in a goal less draw but that doesn't matter. €40 right down in my pocket.

Last night between the Germany and Nigeria games I studied the tennis odds for today. Found Melzer a 1.65 favorite v. Falla. Slightly lowish IMO. Melzer in poor form and Falla is no slouch on grass. Didn't get my full stake matched but could close out a €3 win at 1.73.

This morning I was very convinced Pavic (who got into the tournament through Q) would be an even bigger fav. v. Gonzalez who is in poor form and 0-1 career on grass. Backed at 1.49 and had to get out at 1.54 when the market for unknown reasons liked Gonzalez.-€6

Another unknown reaction happened in my favor though. Young v. Ward. Total coin toss imo. Neither player is in very good form but the American is ultimately the more talented. The Briton slightly better on grass. However I noticed that bookies lowered odds on Ward heavily and Betfair didn't react. There was a €7500 post laying Ward at evens when most major bookies rapidly lowered odds on Ward towards 1.90 and below. Backed Ward at 2 with all cash I had free (around €300] and waited for the market to eat through the massive lay at evens. It did, and once it was gone markets quickly shot down to 1.93 which is where I got out with a €10 win. Don't know what triggered this but I'm happy to take the money.

Grass

Closed three smallish trades yesterday. Started with Tsonga (.v Goffin) when markets opened and was matched with my full stake at 1.19. This was before major bookies opened their lines. There was a moment of nerves when Pinnacle and some other bigger players opened their lines at 1.20 but they lowered their odds to 1.17 within half an hour and I could close out at the same odds.

Decided to lay Stepanek (v. Tomic) at 1.49. Tomic is a good grass player when he's up for it and he did show some fight digging out a three set win in his first match. Stepanek is decent but past his prime and odds below 1.50 felt too short. Didn't have my full stake matched but I will look to close out in the mid 50's today.

Also placed a lay on Hewitt (v. Lopez). These guys are the same age (b. 1981 - great year btw) but time has been a little nicer to Lopez' game and he's a very good grass player. So is Hewitt but IMO he lost more. Markets opened quite high with Hewitt at 1.80 but I didn't get matched there and had to try the opposite. Part of a lay bet at 1.63 was taken and I could green out this morning at 1.69.

W19

After 18 weeks with green digits I got my first red one last week. I've explained it all in a previous post so nothing much to add. I managed another €3 on Hammarby v. Landskrona in the Swedish Superettan football. Net result last week was -€11. Should be easier this week with smaller tournaments. 2nd week of slams are difficult because it's all high profile matches with plenty of money and well known players. Difficult to find an edge there.

And some coins for comfort

I made some successful trades on the Swedish Superettan football today. This is the second league so I was unsure about liquidity and kept my stakes low. But without competition from more major leagues having my €75 stakes matched proved no problem. Backed Ljungskile and Sundsvall this morning and traded out small profits during the afternoon. It's mostly petty cash, about €5 but it's so nice to be winning again. Still €15 in the red for this week though.

I've also secured €3 on the Montreal F1 race. Placed a lay on Alonso at 26 after he topped the first free practice. This is not a Ferrari track, it's a Mercedes and Hamilton track, and narrowly topping the times on a very dirty track in FP1 after being nowhere earlier in the season just doesn't mean anything. After qually (P7) Alonso is trading around 100 but I closed out the trade before FP3. Overly cautious as it turned out but having €500 running during a Qually session doesn't feel great even if I was very sure Alonso wouldn't be top 5 once laptimes really mattered.

Things can happen, weather, a badly timed red flag for a crash or a mechanical failure on the top runners and Alonso could be on the front row priced at 6. Then I would be in big trouble. Better safe than sorry. This is trading, not betting. 

First Red Week

This looks like my first week with a loss on Sunday evening. I just can't believe how every possible thing has turned the wrong way for me this week. It started off badly with Errani v. Jankovic. I had Errani as a small favorite to win the match (which she did in straights) but market traded her up to 2.12 and I had to take a €12 red on both players.

Then I was right on but Muguruza v. Sharapova, Suarez-Navarro v. Bouchard and Murray v. Verdasco but didn't get my full stakes matched so the profits were very small.

Ok then came Halep v. Kuznetsova. I'm really impressed with Halep and had her as a big favorite v. Kuznetsova. Similar styles but Halep is the better version and that usually ends only in one way. Backed Halep heavily for 1.43 only to see odds rise to 1.47 before match start, again I had to red out and Halep won 62 62.

Got it right laying Murray at 1.50 v. Monfils and trading out at 1.55, but once again my full stake wasn't matched and profit stayed at €4.

Made a live trade work on Sharapova - Bouchard backing Maria a break down in the first set. She had started slow before and then come back and that's what happened here as well. Live I only do small stakes so €3 profit.

Next disaster, Halep - Petkovic. Seing how the market disliked Halep v. Kuznetsova and how Petkovic crushed Errani who has a similar playing style I found 1.29 on Halep quite short. Wrong again. Odds turned down to 1.26, back up slightly to 1.27-1.28. Red out again and this time I had placed a huge lay (because it's cheaper to lay at low odds) so the loss was quite big. I could trade live and save €4 but I still had to take a €14 loss on the market.

So more or less all trades I was wrong had the worst possible result and when I was right my stakes were not taken in full. It's normal to win some and lose some that's not a problem but it becomes one when the winning trades are too small because market moves in the right direction at the wrong time, meaning before my stake was matched.

Monday

I did manage to get out of Errani - Jankovic at the best price possible when the market fell back during the night/morning to 2.06. I had placed a ladder laying off my liability at 2.10, 2.08 and 2.06 and the market  bottomed at 2.06 before turning up again. Still cost me €12 which is a poor start to the week, again. Oh and Errani won just as I predicted, in straights 76 62. Small comfort is that I backed her for 2.10 on a match bet. Didn't win me any €12 but it's good to be right.

Had a quick trade on Suarez-Navarro (v. Bouchard). My estimates had Bouchard as a slender  favorite so when the markets opened around 1.55 for the Canadian I placed a lay bet. Had some of it taken before odds corrected themselves but I could close out a €3 comfort price.

I've just entered the Monfils (v. Murray) market laying Murray for 1.53 avg odds. The Scot started his match v. Verdasco a 1.71 favorite and Verdasco and Monfils are very similar in ranking and are both playing well this tournament. Murray was much better today than v. Kohlschreiber but Monfils in France is no pushover. I have this match at around 1.60, right now it's slightly lower but I hope it will rise so I can secure a decent profit from it.

W18

This week surprisingly ended very well with a profit of €39. Didn't see that one coming at the beginning of the week. That is including the €14 i got from accidentally leaving the Gulbis v. Stepanek match in play but even without that it's a very decent result.

Unfortunately I have a really bad bet to start the next week with. I figured Errani would be slightly favored v. Jankovic and backed the Italian at 2.04 avg odds. She leads the H-H 2-1 including 1-0 on clay. Beat Jankovic in Rome only a few weeks ago in straight sets and also beat world no2 Na Li on clay in Rome. The Serbian beat Cirstea last time losing only three games. Errani crushed Glushko 0 and 1. I thought my case was clear but odds shot the other way and are now trading 2.14-2.18 which is expensive for me. Still have a slight hope to get out around 2.10ish but that's slim-