Burnley - Leicester

P2 v. P1 in the Championship. The home team, Burnley, have won four of their last five and are undefeated at home. Away team Leicester are 3 points clear at the top of the table but have just scored two 1-1 draws from their last two matches v midfield team Blackburn and Relegation candidates Yeovil. That's quite poor form so it's surprising to see a very strong, in form home team be priced as a 3.10 dog in this type of match and the away team with at least some question marks over their form curve favored at 2.60. If I made the lines I would price both teams to win at around 2.80 and forced to choose between them I'd go for Burnley. I have a standard sized back for Burnley at 3.10. Market seems to be testing the 3.00 resistance now and hopefully it will break through. If it does I think it could be a quick ride to 2.90 but hopefully it will go all the way down to 2.80 but I don't really believe that myself. We'll see tomorrow or worst case on Saturday but it's generally better to be out come match day when you're a small fish like me.

UPDATE: Didn't go exactly according to plan. There has only been a few trades at 2.98 but I'm out at 3.00 which, given the rather large amount I wagered at 3.10 still results in a €6.50 profit. Hoped for more but greed is the worst enemy.