tisdag 25 mars 2014

A Complicated Trade

I mentioned the Leyton Orient match and this turned out trickier than expected. I used the back higher strategy to increase my average odds and then sell back when the market dropped back. I've created a graph with my "blue" back points and "pink" lay points. This strategy can be quite profitable if you get the initial price wrong but have a strong fundamental belief that odds should be lower. I felt exactly this. That O's should be favored to win and that prices above evens are too high.
The below screenshot shows the price graph and that I can green out the market at 46 Swedish Kronor. Which is about €4.50. So initially I backed O's at 1.97. Then saw the odds increase and backed again at 2.02. Then they came down briefly and turned sharply up. After some bouncing with 2 as support and 2.04 as resistance it broke up to 2.06 and then I backed it again to have a €350 bet on Leyton. Sold off about half of it when it moved back to support at 2. When it broke the support I closed the trade where I started it, at 1.97 but now with a decent profit. Not straight forward but a good trade in the end.

I had to do exactly the same with United - City btw so there have been some nerves today. :) That trade gave €6

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