Monthly trading update

Not much activity this month on the blog but I have been busy doing my usual trading. It's just that it's pretty ill suited for blogging since I can really only report on my trades once they are done. March was very successful and yielded €86 profit which is a new record. Just under 50% of this is from one very lucky trade early in the month where I was matched on a very very good price on a match from a lower league and then could trade out with a big profit. I guess someone out there suffered from fat fingers or whatever but I'm happy.

The rest of the month was very quiet trading. About 85% of my trades were wins which is very good and shows my match selection and odds predicting method is working well. In total I only had €9 losses, that is around 10% of my total winnings this month were lost which is also very good and means I did well in cutting losses short. Excluding the one off big win I made about €10 every week which is my target. Trading bank has increased to €880.

Tennis bets

Finally back again. I've had much to do over the last weeks, work and family related stuff and I've only managed to squeeze in some time to do a few pre match soccer trades. It's been going fairly well with a close to 85% number of trades won and only small losses on the 15% trades that moved in the wrong direction.

I've found two bets from Miami:

Sock @ 1.55 over Thiem (est. price 1.44) I much more like Sock and especially playing in the US he's really good. From my spreadsheet I get prices in the 1.35-1.44 range so there should be value here.
46 36 - Poor from Sock today. Thiem was great though.

Isner +1,5 set @ 1.54 over Dimitrov - My spreadsheet actually shows Isner to be a very slight favorite in this match. He's been sort of out of form so I don't dare back him to actually win the match, but he should definitely be able to snatch a set. Also I suspect my raw data on Dimitrov might not be 100% correct he seems to come up a little too low on his hold-break ratio for his qualities so I want a margin of safety.

76 62 - Ok little too conservative. Isner won in straights so I should have been better paid here.

Monthly trading update

Another quite decent month of trading. February started off well but then I entered a slump and took some losses in the middle of the month. The worst one set me back almost €20 when a market very suddenly shifted ALOT in the wrong direction. Could be bad luck, could be that it had been too easy in January and early February and that caused me to relax and not be careful enough in selecting my trades.

Come the end of the month things shaped up again and I had a few good wins during the last week and a half. I'm up €42 for the month and €102 since the beginning of the year. I have to be happy with this and keep on working in March.

Tennis bet

Fognini @ 1.77 over Berlocq - Fogger played well in Rio and he showed ability to perform well at consecutive clay events last summer. Berlocq hasn't really looked his usual very confident self this Golden Swing and I think Fognini should get this done. Being Fognini though it might take three sets, probably with atleast one breadstick eaten by either player.

36 06  OUCH - Tank-Fog decided to show up.

Tennis bets

New week three new tournaments. I have bets from two of them today.

Dubai is playing slightly slower than avg hard courts but it's a relatively minor difference so I don't think it will be much of a factor.

I'm going with Lopez @ 1.41 over Ward because Lopez is just a better player. Ward is 28 now and has not yet entered the top 100. Of course there are the late bloomers, Estrella-Burgos has made a name for him self an won his first title a few weeks ago aged 34 but as of yet I see no such signs from Ward.

64 64

Also backing Bolelli @ 1.39 over Pouille - The Italian showed what a good game he has last week and should deal with Pouille who is slightly over hyped atm. Pouille had a decent run in Auckland but since then he's been at the challenger-level he has. Bolelli is much to steady from the back court to be surprised by that.

63 63

Acapulco is also slightly slower than avg hard courts.

I'm going with Giraldo @ 1,63 who is a very decent HC player against Krajicek who is given too much credit for knocking out Karlovic at Memphis. These things happen to big servers like Karlovic if they don't fire. Giraldo can rally well and smack a few winners if needed and Krajicek is still mostly a ch-level guy.

76 61

Final bet of today is Granollers @ 1.73 over Matosevic - Matosevic did well in ousting Isner from Delray Beach but as I wrote this can happen with big servers. Matosevic's form is not great and Granny is one tough guy to play. He has a good base line game, defends well and is very good at the net.

46 26

Tennis bet

Simon @ 2.72 over Monfils - A bit of a chance bet here but you have to like the price on Simon. Leads hi 4-1 and with a Very good record in finals, as opposed to Monfils who has a terrible record. Simon is a mental giant in these types of matches.

64 16 76(4)

Tennis bets

Fognini @ 1.54 over Delbonis - The Fog seems to have found his rythm now and then he's really dangerous on clay. Delbonis has not impressed at all, should have lost to Schwatzmann but he choked and then retired. Then beat Klizan who was clearly not 100%. The Fog is a different thing.

64 67 76

Burgos @ 1.62 over Melzer - Burgos is in great form here and should deal with Melzer.

64 62