Fognini @ 1.77 over Berlocq - Fogger played well in Rio and he showed ability to perform well at consecutive clay events last summer. Berlocq hasn't really looked his usual very confident self this Golden Swing and I think Fognini should get this done. Being Fognini though it might take three sets, probably with atleast one breadstick eaten by either player.
36 06 OUCH - Tank-Fog decided to show up.
torsdag 26 februari 2015
måndag 23 februari 2015
Tennis bets
New week three new tournaments. I have bets from two of them today.
Dubai is playing slightly slower than avg hard courts but it's a relatively minor difference so I don't think it will be much of a factor.
I'm going with Lopez @ 1.41 over Ward because Lopez is just a better player. Ward is 28 now and has not yet entered the top 100. Of course there are the late bloomers, Estrella-Burgos has made a name for him self an won his first title a few weeks ago aged 34 but as of yet I see no such signs from Ward.
64 64
Also backing Bolelli @ 1.39 over Pouille - The Italian showed what a good game he has last week and should deal with Pouille who is slightly over hyped atm. Pouille had a decent run in Auckland but since then he's been at the challenger-level he has. Bolelli is much to steady from the back court to be surprised by that.
63 63
Acapulco is also slightly slower than avg hard courts.
I'm going with Giraldo @ 1,63 who is a very decent HC player against Krajicek who is given too much credit for knocking out Karlovic at Memphis. These things happen to big servers like Karlovic if they don't fire. Giraldo can rally well and smack a few winners if needed and Krajicek is still mostly a ch-level guy.
76 61
Final bet of today is Granollers @ 1.73 over Matosevic - Matosevic did well in ousting Isner from Delray Beach but as I wrote this can happen with big servers. Matosevic's form is not great and Granny is one tough guy to play. He has a good base line game, defends well and is very good at the net.
46 26
Dubai is playing slightly slower than avg hard courts but it's a relatively minor difference so I don't think it will be much of a factor.
I'm going with Lopez @ 1.41 over Ward because Lopez is just a better player. Ward is 28 now and has not yet entered the top 100. Of course there are the late bloomers, Estrella-Burgos has made a name for him self an won his first title a few weeks ago aged 34 but as of yet I see no such signs from Ward.
64 64
Also backing Bolelli @ 1.39 over Pouille - The Italian showed what a good game he has last week and should deal with Pouille who is slightly over hyped atm. Pouille had a decent run in Auckland but since then he's been at the challenger-level he has. Bolelli is much to steady from the back court to be surprised by that.
63 63
Acapulco is also slightly slower than avg hard courts.
I'm going with Giraldo @ 1,63 who is a very decent HC player against Krajicek who is given too much credit for knocking out Karlovic at Memphis. These things happen to big servers like Karlovic if they don't fire. Giraldo can rally well and smack a few winners if needed and Krajicek is still mostly a ch-level guy.
76 61
Final bet of today is Granollers @ 1.73 over Matosevic - Matosevic did well in ousting Isner from Delray Beach but as I wrote this can happen with big servers. Matosevic's form is not great and Granny is one tough guy to play. He has a good base line game, defends well and is very good at the net.
46 26
söndag 22 februari 2015
Tennis bet
Simon @ 2.72 over Monfils - A bit of a chance bet here but you have to like the price on Simon. Leads hi 4-1 and with a Very good record in finals, as opposed to Monfils who has a terrible record. Simon is a mental giant in these types of matches.
64 16 76(4)
torsdag 19 februari 2015
Tennis bets
Fognini @ 1.54 over Delbonis - The Fog seems to have found his rythm now and then he's really dangerous on clay. Delbonis has not impressed at all, should have lost to Schwatzmann but he choked and then retired. Then beat Klizan who was clearly not 100%. The Fog is a different thing.
64 67 76
Burgos @ 1.62 over Melzer - Burgos is in great form here and should deal with Melzer.
64 62
64 67 76
Burgos @ 1.62 over Melzer - Burgos is in great form here and should deal with Melzer.
64 62
onsdag 18 februari 2015
Clay treble
Cuevas over Montanes/Nadal over Carreno Busta/Robredo over Haider @ 1,80
Usually I wouldn't bet parlays but this one feels quite solid. Cuevas is on a real roll and Montanes is way past his peak. Carreno won't do anything against Nadal on clay and Robredo is just a much better player than Haider-Maurer.
UPDATE - Robredo screwed me with a truly awful performance. 63 62 to a challenger-player.
Usually I wouldn't bet parlays but this one feels quite solid. Cuevas is on a real roll and Montanes is way past his peak. Carreno won't do anything against Nadal on clay and Robredo is just a much better player than Haider-Maurer.
UPDATE - Robredo screwed me with a truly awful performance. 63 62 to a challenger-player.
tisdag 17 februari 2015
måndag 16 februari 2015
Tennis bets
I'm sticking with De Schepper @ 1.48 over Guez. Guez was outclassed last week on the slick courts of Bergamo by the big serving Dustov. Hold/Break rated at 43 Guez should be a player that does more damage where the conditions are slower.
26 62 36 - Strange match this, lots of momentum swings, unfortunately for me in the wrong direction.
I'll also go with above mentionend Dustov @ 1.62 playing the Challenger in Wroclaw against Petzschner. The german is not anywhere near the player he once was and the super quick courts should favor the Uzbek.
76 67 61
26 62 36 - Strange match this, lots of momentum swings, unfortunately for me in the wrong direction.
I'll also go with above mentionend Dustov @ 1.62 playing the Challenger in Wroclaw against Petzschner. The german is not anywhere near the player he once was and the super quick courts should favor the Uzbek.
76 67 61
söndag 15 februari 2015
Slow courts at Rio should favor the grinders over the bigger hitters. Found two matches that suit this well.
Ramos (48) @ 1.62 over Haider (61)
63 36 26
Schwartzmann (26) @ 1.69 over Delbonis (61)
76 67 12- RET Dunno what happened there. Schwartzmann just seemed to give up in the third set. This week is NOT starting out well. Atleast I got a small live trade done here so I won't lose anything but that's not the point.
Fast courts at Marseille means a guy like Goffin with weak serve and depencence on rallies should struggle v. the big hitting Pole.
Janowicz (64) @ 2.51 over Goffin (53)
46 26 - Really pathetic performance from a guy with all those weapons. You at least have to make it close!
Tennis bets
Quick courts again at Marseille which should suit the big servers well.
First bet will be:
First bet will be:
De Schepper (72) @ 1.50 over Daniel (63)
75 63
I will also have a bet on Wawrinka to top Berdych in the Rotterdam final. Seems he's been the more impressive player this week and Berdych has a habit of coming up just short in the most important matches. I think Stan will take this and @ 2.10 value is definately on the Swiss' side.
46 63 64 - Analysis quite spot on. Berdych's game deteriorated as the match progressed. Had a $5 lay (risking 1.60) on Berd after the first set and cashed it when Stan broke for a 53 lead. Won another $1 that way. Good day at the punters'.
fredag 13 februari 2015
Tennis bet
Cuevas @ 2.26 over Almagro - Cuevas is on a real roll on clay and so far I don't think Almagro has been the player he once was. These odds are more based on the Almagro of two or three years ago who was probably one of the five best clay courters on the planet (after Nadal, Djokovic, Federer and Ferrer). This is simply not true anymore and Cuevas is a very dangerous opponent.
76 36 62
76 36 62
onsdag 11 februari 2015
Tennis bets
Fognini @ 1.80 over Schwartzman - Fognini has been terrible since last summer, which is also the last time he played on clay. Back on the dirt I would expect the Italian to up his act and if he does he's by far the superior player on the surface.
63 16 62 - Classic Fognini scoreline
Berlocq @ 1.59 over Giraldo - Charlie is really good on the slow stuff. Giraldo is not bad but he's been quite out of form lately and barely got Koppejans done in two sets. Lost to a very much declining Montanes in Quito. I expect Charlie to grind him down and get this match done.
64 57 36 - Charlie in control until 5-5 in the second. Then started playing some really loose tennis.
63 16 62 - Classic Fognini scoreline
Berlocq @ 1.59 over Giraldo - Charlie is really good on the slow stuff. Giraldo is not bad but he's been quite out of form lately and barely got Koppejans done in two sets. Lost to a very much declining Montanes in Quito. I expect Charlie to grind him down and get this match done.
64 57 36 - Charlie in control until 5-5 in the second. Then started playing some really loose tennis.
Tennis bet
Johnson @ 1.43 over Brown - Sure Brown is decent on a fast court (rated 66) but he's a much less competent player than Johnson (rated 73). Both players are more suited to the faster conditions but Johnson, especially in the US is much more solid. Brown is spectacular but can play some truly wild shots that miss much more than not.
46 75 76 - A little closer than I thought but we got the win Stevie and I :)
46 75 76 - A little closer than I thought but we got the win Stevie and I :)
tisdag 10 februari 2015
Tennis bet
Isner @ 1.78 over Dodig - I don't understand these odds at all. Isner is an absolute beast in the US and on a fast HC he's incredibly tough to beat. Dodig is no slouch but in the US you'll have to give Isner a considerable edge
64 76 - Not surprisingly Isner won in two tight sets. I'll just have to thank the oddsmakers for the gift. In my book this was a 1.40 type of match, not 1.78.
64 76 - Not surprisingly Isner won in two tight sets. I'll just have to thank the oddsmakers for the gift. In my book this was a 1.40 type of match, not 1.78.
Tennis bet
Groth @ 1.92 over Lu (Court Speed based bet) So far the court speed based bets have been a success and I will try another one. Groth with a hold/break ratio of 78 is one of the biggest servers there is, which is very useful on the fast Memphis IH. Lu, rated 58 relies much more on rallying with his opponents and there won't be much of that in this match.
64 63
64 63
söndag 8 februari 2015
Tennis Bets & Court Speed Discussion
I've found the need to change my modelling since it's not producing the desired results. I think I've possibly underestimated the court speed factor in making my bets and will now not strictly be looking at numbers in my spreadsheet but also on the individual characteristics of each player.
It's well documented that slower surfaces favors "grinders". That is players who can rally for a long time and win points with stamina and points construction. Faster surfaces favors big servers and big hitters who can out hit their opponents and keep points short.
Looking back at this week's tournaments we have Quito which is played on clay, but on high altitude which makes it a quite fast venue. The final will be played between Lopez who has a hold/break ratio of 71 (over 70 would indicate a big server) and Estrella-Burgos who is rated 59 which would place him pretty much in the middle, but crucially higher than his only decent ranked opponents, Bellucci (55) and Klizan (58). The quick speed seems to have played a part in setting the final.
In Montpellier, also a fast venue but not extremely fast for IH we have the final between Janowicz (64) and Gasquet (61). Not extremely "quick" players although most would probably call Janowicz atleast to be a biggish server. Again, crucially they are rated higher for hold/break than their respective SF opponents, Monfils (58) and Sousa (56)
Zagreb is one of the slower IH tournaments and the final will be contested between Seppi (58) and Garcia-Lopez (54) both much closer to the "grinder" criteria below 50. Their SF were opponents Baghdatis (57) and Granollers (54) so given how close they are in their rating it's difficult to make conclusions. Still, to have an IH tournament final contested between Seppi and GGL is a surprise especially with biggish hitters like Dodig, Karlovic, Berrer, Muller and Troicki elimineted at or before the QF.
Looking ahead to the coming week we have three tournaments. Rotterdam and Memphis are quick IH venues. According to tennisinsight Rotterdam is the quickest with Memphis playing much like Montpellier. Sao Paolo is slower than Quito but not extremely slow for a clay court.
That means Sao Paolo should favor guys who can rally. Don't expect Lopez to make another final appearance. Guys like Berlocq, Cuevas, Monaco and Andujar should do well.
In Memphis big hitters like Johnson, Isner, Karlovic and Tomic should have a decent chance to go far.
Rotterdam is tough to read as there are lots of quality players there, for example Murray who is certainly not a big hitter but a generally superior player. Normally the top-half SF should be Murray v. Berdych, while Wawrinka and Raonic should deal with the bottom half.
Cuevas @ 1.68 over Vesely (EP 1.52) 64 36 75
Johnson @ 1.40 over Sela (EP 1.40, Court speed influenced bet) Sela W/O
Dodig @ 1.45 over Gabashvili (Court speed based bet) 62 62
Müller @ 2.43 over Goffin (Court speed based bet) 76 67 63
Almagro @ 1.43 over Rola (Surface and court speed based bet) 76 64
It's well documented that slower surfaces favors "grinders". That is players who can rally for a long time and win points with stamina and points construction. Faster surfaces favors big servers and big hitters who can out hit their opponents and keep points short.
Looking back at this week's tournaments we have Quito which is played on clay, but on high altitude which makes it a quite fast venue. The final will be played between Lopez who has a hold/break ratio of 71 (over 70 would indicate a big server) and Estrella-Burgos who is rated 59 which would place him pretty much in the middle, but crucially higher than his only decent ranked opponents, Bellucci (55) and Klizan (58). The quick speed seems to have played a part in setting the final.
In Montpellier, also a fast venue but not extremely fast for IH we have the final between Janowicz (64) and Gasquet (61). Not extremely "quick" players although most would probably call Janowicz atleast to be a biggish server. Again, crucially they are rated higher for hold/break than their respective SF opponents, Monfils (58) and Sousa (56)
Zagreb is one of the slower IH tournaments and the final will be contested between Seppi (58) and Garcia-Lopez (54) both much closer to the "grinder" criteria below 50. Their SF were opponents Baghdatis (57) and Granollers (54) so given how close they are in their rating it's difficult to make conclusions. Still, to have an IH tournament final contested between Seppi and GGL is a surprise especially with biggish hitters like Dodig, Karlovic, Berrer, Muller and Troicki elimineted at or before the QF.
Looking ahead to the coming week we have three tournaments. Rotterdam and Memphis are quick IH venues. According to tennisinsight Rotterdam is the quickest with Memphis playing much like Montpellier. Sao Paolo is slower than Quito but not extremely slow for a clay court.
That means Sao Paolo should favor guys who can rally. Don't expect Lopez to make another final appearance. Guys like Berlocq, Cuevas, Monaco and Andujar should do well.
In Memphis big hitters like Johnson, Isner, Karlovic and Tomic should have a decent chance to go far.
Rotterdam is tough to read as there are lots of quality players there, for example Murray who is certainly not a big hitter but a generally superior player. Normally the top-half SF should be Murray v. Berdych, while Wawrinka and Raonic should deal with the bottom half.
Cuevas @ 1.68 over Vesely (EP 1.52) 64 36 75
Johnson @ 1.40 over Sela (EP 1.40, Court speed influenced bet) Sela W/O
Dodig @ 1.45 over Gabashvili (Court speed based bet) 62 62
Müller @ 2.43 over Goffin (Court speed based bet) 76 67 63
Almagro @ 1.43 over Rola (Surface and court speed based bet) 76 64
torsdag 5 februari 2015
Tennis bets
Lopez @ 1.40 over Lajovic 46 75 61
Kohlschreiber @ 1.36 over Sousa - 67 46 Even match but Sousa more clutch.
Monfils @ 1.35 over Darcis 46 62 63
Gasquet @ 1.29 over Istomin 63 64
Kohlschreiber @ 1.36 over Sousa - 67 46 Even match but Sousa more clutch.
Monfils @ 1.35 over Darcis 46 62 63
Gasquet @ 1.29 over Istomin 63 64
onsdag 4 februari 2015
Late pre match trades
Spent 45 minutes trading tonight last 20-25 minutes before KO.
Köln v. Stuttgart €3
Napoli v. Inter €5
Monaco v. Bastia €2
Really starting to get a hang of this. Just need to keep my trading discipline and not lose money!
Should break the €800 barrier on my account very soon which would put my winnings to €100 this year and it's only the start of February. But let's not get carried away. Losses can happen quickly.
Köln v. Stuttgart €3
Napoli v. Inter €5
Monaco v. Bastia €2
Really starting to get a hang of this. Just need to keep my trading discipline and not lose money!
Should break the €800 barrier on my account very soon which would put my winnings to €100 this year and it's only the start of February. But let's not get carried away. Losses can happen quickly.
Tennis bet Sela v. Istomin
Sticking with Sela @ 2.14 who looked good last match and won me some money. Istomin is here because of a retirement after he lost the first set and he hasn't been at his normal level so far this season. Sela is a tough costumer when his game is on and will make you play alot of ball. (Estimated Price 1.83)
67 26
67 26
Tennis bet Lopez v. Gonzalez
Backing Lopez @ 1.67 over Gonzalez at the ATP-event in Quito. Due to altitude this is much quicker than a normal clay event, say at sea level in Vina del Mar or in Buenos Aires. This should favor a big server and heavy hitter like Lopez much more than Gonzalez. (Estimated Price 1.42)
75 62 and 77% of service points won for Lopez. Easy peasy.
75 62 and 77% of service points won for Lopez. Easy peasy.
måndag 2 februari 2015
Tennis bets
Back Bachinger @ 1.49 over Soeda (Estimated Price 1.36)
67 57 Ball Bachinger still a choker. Won more points in the first set but lost the breaker 7-4. Then got a break up in the second. Gave it back with a DF and then predictably faltered serving to get a second breaker. Thought his good form this season had changed things, but no... same old, same old...
Back Sela @ 1.98 over Zopp (Estimated Price 1.54)
63 64 Nothing to see here. Better player won. Sela won 72% of service points and faced no BP's.
67 57 Ball Bachinger still a choker. Won more points in the first set but lost the breaker 7-4. Then got a break up in the second. Gave it back with a DF and then predictably faltered serving to get a second breaker. Thought his good form this season had changed things, but no... same old, same old...
Back Sela @ 1.98 over Zopp (Estimated Price 1.54)
63 64 Nothing to see here. Better player won. Sela won 72% of service points and faced no BP's.
Pre match trade de Schepper v. Ilhan
I quite like de Schepper here. Backed last night at 1.68 and hope to get out at 1.64 during the night. Some of my stake is already taken but a few Euros remain. Should be a smallish win.
Late pre match trade Malaga v. Valencia
Got in the market 20 minutes before kick off. Was bouncing around 2.72-2.76 on the home team with rare outbursts down and up but pretty much a sideways market which made it not too hard to scalp the market at 2.74 and 2.76 where most of the action was. Made two successful scalps and a few unsuccessful ones where I had to get out at the same price I got in when the market looked to be headed the wrong way. Discipline works!
Profit from these 15 minutes of work €6.
Profit from these 15 minutes of work €6.
söndag 1 februari 2015
Monthly Trading Report
Trading profits for January was a very acceptable €60. This means my trading account is up 8% from 700 to 760 Euros.
Overall my discipline has been very good. Cutting losses short instead of waiting for a change in market directions that might never come. And usually never does. I have cut some winnings a little too short as well but better safe than sorry.
Suddenly the very close to kick off trading seems to work much better and I think probably half of my profits are from these late trades that previously caused me more losses than winnings. Maybe it's the more cautious approach that's paying off.
Overall my discipline has been very good. Cutting losses short instead of waiting for a change in market directions that might never come. And usually never does. I have cut some winnings a little too short as well but better safe than sorry.
Suddenly the very close to kick off trading seems to work much better and I think probably half of my profits are from these late trades that previously caused me more losses than winnings. Maybe it's the more cautious approach that's paying off.
Tennis bet Basilashvili over Serra
Back Basilashvili @ 1.67 over Serra (Estimated price 1.40)
UPDATE: 60 63 for Basilashvili. I have no idea how the oddsmakers came up with this line but I say thank you for the gift.
UPDATE: 60 63 for Basilashvili. I have no idea how the oddsmakers came up with this line but I say thank you for the gift.
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