Live Trades

Staying in France for some live trading.

Backing under 2.5 @ 1.71 for Creteil v. Sochaux UPDATE: Out at 1.44 after 20 min to win  €1
Backing Draw @ 3.30 for Troyes v. Orleans UPDATE: Odds didn't move after 20 min so out at 3.30.

Strategy

I think I've come up with a way to refine my strategy. So far it has worked really well for me and rendered some nice profits.

First of all I need to avoid the highest leagues in each country and the two highest leagues in England. I could make exceptions but generally it's difficult to find that extra value because there's so much information and money going into these markets and they tend to correct themselves pretty quickly and then start moving quite irrationally, suddenly going 10 points up or down for no apparent reason other than huge money entering the market at a particular side.

Over the last week my most profitable trades have been in  England League 1 and 2, French Ligue 2 and Italian Serie B. There's enough juice for my stakes to get matched with ease but not enough to attract the really big fish.

The thing is I don't know much about football and especially not in these leagues. The teams are really just names, form curves, H-H mixed up with some betting psychology. If you asked me I probably couldn't name a single player from any club in these four leagues. My edge as I have found it is that I seem to be pretty good at identifying what people (these casual punters) I've been talking about like to bet on and what they will dislike, and also what a reasonable price for that particular team would be.

It's worth going back a little to these casual punters. They are like people are the most. The like to place fairly small stake bets on teams that look good for the win, typically highly placed in form teams against pretty much any opposition and at pretty much any price. They don't care if they back at 1.90 or 1.80 if the are "sure" their team is going to win. They also tend to enter the market quite late and move the price in that direction, supply and demand. The difference between these guys and the pros operating the higher leagues is that the pros will not back a 1.90 team at 1.86 because that's not "value" and then the markets will not react the way I expect because I'm not that good at predicting exact odds. I might back a strong team at 1.85 expecting punters to drive it down to 1.80 on sheer volume but if there are to many sharp bettors pricing the match at 1.88 they will go and place big lays and drive the price up and my book red. These professionals don't operate the second and third leagues because there's not enough money for them to make. But there's enough money for me to do my part time, small fish, a little extra income from trading a few times a week.

Or to sum it up. I need to be smarter then the market I'm trading, not the smartest guy on Betfair, because I'm really not, and it doesn't matter a rats arse how much you know about football if you can read a market and predict what people will like or not. That's why I trade, not bet, except for my Kelly bets and they are based on technical analysis and comparing different bookie prices anyway.

Pre match Le Havre v. Arles

Le Havre have been solid at home this season 3-2-0 including a home win over table leaders Dijon. Arles are 1-0-4 for their last games and only managed two draws on the road this season. Again I put my hope to the casual punters to back the home team heavily on match day.

Back Le Havre @ 1.97

UPDATE: Doesn't seem to go anywhere. Trading just above my 1.97 which is annoying. Ill probably start selling off smaller amounts at 1.98 to reduce risk and still have something left if Mr market eventually decides to move in my favor.

UPDATE2: Finally moved! Sold off at 1.94 to secure a €2.5 profit for this trade. Had some luck getting a few Euros taken at 2.00 before the market moved south as well. 

Pre match Laval v. Tours

Laval undefeated at home although there have been lots of draws. Tours are at the bottom of the table and have lost all 6 away games this season in the French Ligue 2. There is reason to believe the casual punters will jump on Laval during the day.

Back Laval @ 1.94

UPDATE: Moved in the right direction now after a short trip north. Might establish a new support/resistance around 1.90.

UPDATE2: Got it all sold off at 1.90 to win €3 who ever wins.

Pre match Creteil v. Sochaux

Fine form for the away team. Very few losses. Surely 2.18 is too low for the home side. Atleast 2.26 expected.

Lay Creteil @ 2.18

UPDATE: Damn ut! Cashed it too soon. Market was ambivalent and I decided to go out at 2.24 to secure something. Then it shot off to 2.34. Earned EUR 3 though.

Pre match Bari v. Pescara & Frosione v. Varese

Backing the home teams. In form and hfa should attract some bettors and drive prices lower.

UPDATE1: Bari didn't move much out with 2 clicks and EUR 1,50

UPDATE2: Frosinone dropped 10 ticks from 1.98 to 1.88 EUR 6,5 to me :)

Pre match Leyton Orient v. Preston

PNE still in insanely good form and on a 7 game winning streak. O's coming from a 0-3 defeat to Port Vale. Expect the casual punters to back Preston heavily in the last few hours so better take a position today. Unsmart money enters tomorrow.

Back Preston @ 2.48

UPDATE: Lay Preston @ 2.40 Win Eur 6.00

Pre match trades

Celtic v. Astra Giurgiu: I'll be very honest with you. I've never heard of Astra Giurgiu but technically laying Celtic at 1.66 looked like a very good bet. Looking at it from a strictly technical perspective it should bounce up to just over 1.70 or a little bit more. UPDATE: Settled for 1.67 and €1.

Estoril v. Dinamo Moscow: Technical analysis again. Laying Dinamo at 2.08 looks like a good trade.
UPDATE: Turned the wrong way. Got back out at 2.08.

Sheffield W v. Norwich: Two teams in pretty poor form. No reason to have Sheffield this big underdog playing at home. Backed them at 3.30.

UPDATE: Got some more backed at 3.40 then had to get out at 3.35. Cost me €0.50.

Pre match Preston v. Fleetwood

Preston should be bigger favorites imo. 1.65 is a better price for this insanely in form team.

Backed Preston at 1.69

UPDATE: odds moved slightly against me. Backing PNE again at 1.74. Hope I get matched. Still convinced Preston will trade lower.

UPDATE2: They did but I didn't have the patience for various reasons. Got out at 1.69 for a fairly decent €2 profit given the circumstances.

Pre match Middlesbrough v. Watford

I think Middlesbrough is given too much credit in the early markets. Watford are 2nd in the league table and haven't lost in their last 5 games 2W 3D 0L. I see no reason why Middlesbrough should trade just above evens. IMO they are more of a 2.15-2.20 favorite in this match.

I'm laying Middlesbrough @ 2,06.

UPDATE: out at 2.08 to win 1 EUR.

Pre match trade Robredo v. Lu

Got matched at 1.48 on Robredo, that's about where odds are now as well so nothing much to add. Will try to get on at 1.50 as well and then close out during the afternoon. This is the last match at Valencia today so there's plenty of time.

UPDATE: Got some money taken at 1.50. Cashed out at 1.47. Little less than I hoped but ok... 1 euro 50.

Pre-match trade Gabashvili v. Golubev

Backing Gabashvili for a trade @ 1.70. I would expect odds to drop atleast 5 ticks before start.

UPDATE: Not matched at 1.65 during the night. Very small amount was taken but not mine. Placed a new lay at 1.69.

UPDATE 2: most of it taken at 1.69. Some at 1.71. I win 10 cents. Then odds drifted so lucky this time.

Kelly games

Rotherham v. Fulham (1) 5:- @ 2,15 RESULT: 3-3 -5:-
Wolves v. Middlesbrough (1) 5:- @ 2,40 RESULT: 2-0 +7:-
Crewe v. Peterborough (2) 8:- @ 1,81 RESULT 0-1 -8:-

Live trade

Charlton v. Bolton (X) 3,25 UPDATE: Out after about 15 minutes. Odds had not moved.
Wigan v. Millwall (lay 1) 2,06 UPDATE: Out after about 15 minutes with +2:-
Swindon v. Rochdale (lay 1) 2,24 UPDATE: Out after 25 minutes with +2:-

Had hoped the odds would move a little more but it's ok. Still learning.

CSKA v. Man City

Again a huge drift on the favorites (Man C) right before kick off. I'll place a lay bet on the English and hope to cash out higher. O/U markets suggest a high scoring affair so let's hope for a quick home goal.

CSKA v. Man C lay (2) @ 1,85

UPDATE: Odds dropped to 1.79 on Man C first 10 minutes with the score at 0-0. I'm out. -1:-

Pre-match Luton v. Dag & Red

Backed Luton yesterday at 1.91. Cashout today at 1.85. + 5 euros.

Citadella v. Entella

Strong drift on the home team about 30 mins before kick off suggests that there could be trouble ahead. No significant movements in over/under markets suggest a low scoring draw or away win.

I lay Citaldella @ 2,36 at kick off.

UPDATE: Entella scored in the 17th minute and I cash out 20:- from a 35:- stake. Not bad. :)

Kelly match Falkenberg v. Helsingborg

Falkenberg v. Helsingborg (1) 5:- @ 2,37

RESULT: 2-0 +6,85:-

Weekly update

Another fairly uneventful trading week and still very much the opposite to what usually happens. Results have been somewhat reversed from the normal pattern of many small wins destroyed by one or two bigger losses. This week I had two fairly large wins, but several small losses to effectively even out my winnings. Net result this week, again around +-0.

Kelly has been coming in nicely. The win on Spezia at good odds did the bankroll much good and even put it in green territory. Norrköping also beat Gefle to add to the joy. Kelly is now up 11%.

Pre match trade - Elche v. Sevilla

Sevilla clearly better team. Odds first moved down and then rapidly up on Sevilla again. Backed at 2.06 and a quick out at 2.04 to secure 20:- (SEK) ~ €2

Paderborn v. Eintracht Frankfurt

Huge drift on the home team last 30 minutes. Overs/Unders stable. I'm laying Paderborn. Odds movements suggest draw or away victory with less than 2 goals.

Out after 30:- min. Still 0-0 but odds didn't move much at all +1:-

Kelly Match Gefle v. Norrköping

Busy day. Poor weather means lots of time to check out matches.

Gefle - Norrköping (2) 15:- @ 2,50

RESULT: 1-2  +22,5:-

Videoton v. Debrecen

Odds movements suggest home team could face a tougher task than expected. I'll lay at 2.00 before kick off.

UPDATE: Had to read a book to my daughter and closed the trade with a 1:- profit.

Trabzonspor v Mersin & Atalanta v Parma

Mina analyser av oddsrörelserna före match på de här båda kamperna säger att den turkiska matchen bör bli en målrik hemmaseger. Backar därför med små insatser hemmalaget och över 2.5 och hoppas på ett ganska tidigt ledningsmål för Trabzonspor.

Atalanta mot Parma bör bli en ganska avvaktande tillställning mellan två formsvaga lag. Backar krysset och hoppas att det fortfarande står noll noll efter 20-25 minuter eller så.

Stängde tidigt överspelet på Trabzonspor. Det gick snabbt norrut och resultatet blev -10:-
Atalanta har fortfarande i 60e minuten 0-0 och jag har cashat in en vinst. Först en liten summa efter 22 minuter och jag tog ytterligare en kort position i 50e som avvecklades i 55e. Total vinst 5:-
Trabzonspor gjorde 1-0 i 54e varvid jag kunde casha in 13:-.

Totalt för livetraden idag  +8:- vilket är ytterligt patetiskt men just nu är det lärpengar för det här är helt nya marker för mig.

UPDATE: Trabzonspor won 3-1 so odds movement were totally correct pre-match.
Atalanta won 1-0 after a '90 minute goal.

Kelly-match

I'll try to be more frequent with match updates. What I trade and what I include in my Kelly experiment.

Today's match is:
Italian Serie B Spezia v. Catania (1) 11:- @ 2.60

Result: W 3-0

A small update

Kelly is performing under expectations. Down 2.5% so far. Not a huge amount of games but I thought I would do better.

Trading has been uneventful. Last weeks ended in +-0 results. This one has started about the same way with some small losses and some equally small wins. I have a few good ideas for the weekend soccer matches but I thought that last week as well and ended up burning all my tennis profits from early in the week.