W29

After a few weeks off it's time for a trading report again. First week back on the job netted a €12 profit which is quite on average what I should gain. No major dramas really.

The Kelly project has started off inconclusive. I'm currently with a 2% negative ROI. Won 50% of my bets at 2.42 so I'm considering if the staking method is at fault. With even stakes I would be up. I'll give this staking method another week or two and then I'll evaluate.

Introducing the Kelly Project

Over the last few weeks I haven't been very active, not on the blog, not trading odds. I haven't been sleeping my days away rather researching a new project I find quite interesting. I'll call it the "Kelly Project" after mathematician John Kelly who formulated a theory on how bettors should manage their bankrolls. A staking theory where the amount wagered is calculated from the suggested edge the bettor thinks he has over the market. Other people have explained this better and I have tried this in the past. The only problem is that even if I believe I know a thing or two about odds after a few years of trading on Betfair I haven't been sure enough of my edge. Which is what I have been researching.

Betfair claims to have the most effective betting market and Pinnacle claims to have the sharpest bettors tuning in their odds. That means that their odds should be as close to the real possibility of an event to occur as one could ever hope to get. If they say odds on team A are 1,60 I should be fairly sure the probability of team A to win should be 62.5%. This is where Kelly come in. From my research I've noticed that fairly frequently other more "casual" bookies don't adjust their odds enough, or fast enough when markets move. If team A starts a 1.70 favorite most bookies will end up around 1.70. In the final hours before kick off lots of money enters the market and can distort odds. Pinny and Betfair usually adjust very quickly and team A could very well start a 1.60 favorite while some bookies still offer 1.70. There's the edge the Kelly formula needs. In this (rather extreme) case my edge is 7% and if my bankroll is 500 I should bet 10% of my bankroll on this selection. This will be larger or smaller depending on the edge I believe I have. So in theory I should be able to use this staking method and value odds to beat the bookies.

I've decided to risk 500SEK (€55) to try out this theory. If it works it works if it doesn't it's no big loss. And to be honest I've taken some money from the bookies' new account/first deposit bonuses over the last weeks so actually they are paying for this experiment themselves. For this I'm very grateful. :)

I'll report back how it works out and I will be back to odds trading this week as well. Already secured €5 on some Tuesday League One matches.

W.28

Another very low key week for me. The timing with all the tournaments in the US is troublesome for my way of trading. Usually there's nothing in the markets when I go to bed. And when I get up they're all settled in and there's not much movement left in them, with a few exceptions of course but on the whole it's much better when matches are played in Europe or Asia. Opening odds are out when I go to bed (Europe) and I can take positions over night. Or during the day (Asia) and I can take and close positions during waking hours. Two more weeks of USO and they should be headed back to this side which will make things easier. Also a few more weeks should give me a decent idea of the European football leagues. As for now it's another €5 from two trades early in the week.

w.27

A tad late but here's last week's report. It wasn't much to be honest. I got back to work after the holidays and I haven't really had much time to trade. Still it was mostly successful even if volumes were low. A €7 profit for the week was the result of my efforts and that also makes it a new ATH. Yay! Or something...

w26

Not much happened this week. I started work again which took some time and focus away from trading. I also just didn't get matched much which is kind of frustrating when you put in the time. Usual case this week: I find a good match to trade and decide I want to bet at 1.45 when market is fresh and looks something like back (a tiny amount) at 1.38 and lay 1.46. Then someone places a bet before me at 1.44. I decide to cut down to 1.43. When I get back to the computer money is matched at 1.42 and market is trading at 1.35. Similar things happened alot to me this week and that why all I have to say is that I made a mere €5 this week. Hopefully better luck next week. In a few weeks time I should be able to trade the English League Championship which is my favorite league to trade. Just need a little more data on the teams this year, how they are priced, how they perform etc. Until then I'll have to do with Swedish football and Tennis.

Berdych & Radwanska

-1 euro on the Czech after a good save after a miscalculation. Layed TB at 1.51 v. Lopez. He struggled v. Lu and I thought the market would punish him. Stop loss at 1.49 back at 1.49 lay at 1.47.

Lay bet on aRad 1.68 small stake taken v. Lisicki out at 1.77. Shame I couldn't get more money matched.

Chardy - Tsonga

First big win this week. €6 on this match. Placed a lay bet on Tsonga last night at 1.32. Odds on Tsonga drifted v. Vasselin (who he owned 7-0 in the HH) prior to the R1 match and I had to take a small loss on the market. Obviously Chardy is a tougher opponent and Tsonga leads a narrow 2-1 in the HH. Starting odds (1.31) were roughly the same where the market turned for the Vasselin match. Odds had to rise. All of it were taken during the night and market remained stable back 1.32 - lay 1.33. I decided to leave it. Confident as I was and only a small amount was traded, most of it was my money actually. I placed a back bet at 1.36 which seemed to be a fairer price and right before lunch it was all taken.

Yesterday I had a small win on Simon v. Thiem and a small live trade win on Williams v. Pavlyuchenkova.