W20

Positive week but it should have been better. I had to take a quite big loss on Petkovic v. Bouchard yesterday. I simply underestimated how much the market loves the young Canadian. On paper they had similar form. Both were eliminated in the semis of the French. Petko had 3-0 HH going into the match. Bouchard slightly higher ranked and should be favored to win (she did in straights) but I surely did not have the market in the low to mid 1.40's. First odds from bookies opened at 1.53 which seemed low IMO. A lay bet at 1.55 was quickly taken and odds dropped down towards 1.50. When it broke under I thought - Well surely it can't go lower than this! This is a 1.60 favorite ffs! and I placed another lay bet at 1.49 which was also quickly taken and the market continued to go even lower. Bottomed out at 1.43-1.44  and then turned back up. I got out at 1.47 but lost over €12 on this market alone. Almost a full week's profits.

Still I got away with €8 for the week because of some Swedish football this afternoon. Not what I had hoped for but ok, it's another green week.

Wimbledon Thursday

Win 4 on Isner. Lose 4 on Vekic. Nothing more to add.

Wimbledon Wednesday

Matched on two trades again. Had my full €150 stake taken on Garcia (v. Lepchenko) at 1.95. I entered this market very early, before bookies had any odds to compare with. Just one or two of the first high margin bookies were up but their odds are so low they are not much to go on. Operating with a 8% margin there is much room for error in their lines. This is a more risky strategy but I felt quite confident that I had the match correctly valued with Garcia as a narrow favorite. The bet was taken very quickly which kind of made me nervous because usually the bad bets are taken first but soon after that the more major bookies with higher payout published their odds, just as I expected with Garcia a narrow favorite and soon after that they lowered their odds slightly pricing Garcia as a 1.85 favorite. Good news and I placed a lay bet at 1.87 to adjust for commission and went to bed. All clear this morning and €6.5 green on both women.

I also had a small part of my 1.13 bet on Sharapova (v. Bacsinsky) matched. Could green out a €1 profit this morning at 1.10. So far a very solid week.

Wimbledon Tuesday

I had a lot of very small stakes matched on several markets. Could cash them for about €0.10 each so nothing to write about. Two markets got some more money taken. These were

• Gimeno-Traver v. Giraldo - Neither is a natural grass player but Giraldo has much more merits on the surface and a healthy 6-1 in the HH. Gimeno hasn't won a match on grass since 2011. I backed Giraldo at 1.28 and was hoping to get out at 1.25ish. We'll see what happens. There is a decent amount waiting at 1.27 and not much activity in the market. Might have to settle for one click or even get out again at 1.28.
• Falla v. Pavic - Falla is actually a quite competent grass player, reaching the finals in Halle a few weeks ago losing in two tiebreaks to Federer. Pavic has done fairly well in qualifiers and challengers this year but is yet to win a md match. Hard to believe it will happen today. I backed Falla at 1.37 and had about €85 matched. Trying to get out at 1.34. Should be possible to do. It's small steps but they are steps.

Wimbledon Monday

Got matched in three markets during my first Wimbledon trading day which started yesterday with Monday's matches. I entered five different markets, but as I said was only matched in three of them.
These were:

• Erakovic v. Konjuh where I backed Erakovic at 1.66 and could trade out at 1.61. Sady I had only a very small stake matched and I net €1 for the market.
• Barthel v. Oprandi where I had a decent part of my bet for Barthel taken at 1.24 but not the full ammount. I have laid off about half of it at 1.22 and I'm waiting for the rest to be taken. Should be around €3.5 if I can get all matched at 1.22.
• Davis v. Kleybanova - I backed Davis at 1.46 for a smallish stake which was good because markets didn't like Davis quite as much as last week. I could get out of most of my trade at 1.46 when it started to turn against me but I had to lay off the last liability at 1.51 for a -€1 loss. 

Average trading day. Matched in 60% of my markets, although not for 60% of my stakes and two correct bets and one incorrect. No trader will ever win all his trades, the important thing is to be right more often than not and to cut losses and maximize winnings. That however is easier said than done.

UPDATE: Well finally I got all my lay money on Barthel taken and all green for €3.5. Took much longer than I thought it would.

W20-21

I just noticed that I forgot to update the graph last week so it will be a 2 week update. Up another €50 to pass the €800 mark.

Germany v. Ghana

Cashout at 1.33. Too much lay money entered at 1.33 and not enough back money at 1.34 so I decided to get out. Unfavorable WoM is a bad indication. Better safe than sorry and another 6 Euro won.