Qualifying team bets

Lotus v. Williams @ 3,25
Lotus v. Red Bull @ 1,50
Force India v. Toro Rosso @ 1,60

F1 bets update after FP2

 My prediction                                                       Result (based on avg best laptime of both cars)

1. Mercedes - Hamilton to beat Rosberg - P1 - Hamilton
2. Ferrari - Vettel to beat Räikkönen - P2 - Vettel
3. Williams - Bottas to beat Massa (narrowly) P4 - 1-1
4. Red Bull - Ricciardo to beat Kvyat - P6 - Kvyat
5. Lotus - Grosjean to beat Maldonado - P3 - 1-1
6. Toro Rosso - Sainz to bet Verstappen- P7 - 1-1
7. McLaren - Alonso to beat Button - P8 - Alonso
8. FI - Perez to beat Hulkenberg (narrowly) - P5 - Hulkenberg
9. Sauber - Nasr to beat Ericsson - P9 - 1-1
10. Manor - Stevens to beat Mehri - P10 - Mehri

Doesn't seem too impressive so far but P2 was washed away and that could change things. I'll evaluate myself properly after Quallies. Seems I underestimated the Lotus cars and the F1 and gave too much credit to the Red Bulls. Apart from that it's quite close. 4 teams have drivers split 1-1 between the two FP. I've been right on 4 and wrong on 2.

I've placed another bet. Hulkenberg to out qualify Perez @ 1.50. The german has looked really strong so far. So much that I put some money where my mouth is.

I won the Hamilton FP1 bet @ 1.85

I had a very small sum matched on the Betfair trade and have closed it out with €1 profit. Not what I hoped for but when you're not matched there's not much to do.

F1 bets

I've been following F1 for a long time, over 15 years now and feel I got a fair idea about how it works. I haven't tried seriously though to make money from it with normal bets before until this season really. I have traded occasionally usually backing or laying a driver before FP and trading out before Quallies. A low risk strategy of you sort of know what you're doing. I've had some luck with my bets so far so I thought I'd share them.

First I have a trade going on where I want to back Hamilton to win the race @ 1.75. It's not matched yet but I obviously hope it will be. This is a track Hamilton loves, weather should be nice which reduces the chance for odd events to disrupt my plans. Cool temperatures are expected which should help the already dominant Mercedes cars, while hotter temperatures should allow Ferrari to sneak closer.

I've also placed a bet @ 1.55 with Betsson for Hamilton to be on pole, and a smaller one for him to win FP1 @ 1.85.

Despite hoping otherwise I've also bet on Nasr to out-qualify my compatriot Ericsson @ 1.30.

Unibet had some interesting offers for 3.00 on both Alonso and Button not to finish the race. Double finish in the chronically unreliable McLaren Honda looks very unlikely and if one fails to finish I'm all good and should both retire I'm in for some nice cash. Not unlikely since this is a power circuit that should put some strain on the fragile power plant. It's also tough on brakes and barriers are close so there should be retirements in the race. Button and Alonso being world champions and all are top class drivers not expected to crash but the risk is always they could get tangled up in someone else's mistake.

I'll be back with some HH bets after the first day of practise. That should have some pecking order sorted out within and between teams.

I expect:
Mercedes - Hamilton to beat Rosberg
Ferrari - Vettel to beat Räikkönen
Williams - Bottas to beat Massa (narrowly)
Red Bull - Ricciardo to beat Kvyat
Lotus - Grosjean to beat Maldonado
Toro Rosso - Sainz to bet Verstappen
McLaren - Alonso to beat Button
FI - Perez to beat Hulkenberg (narrowly)
Sauber - Nasr to beat Ericsson
Manor - Stevens to beat Mehri

Trading report May

May has been a good month once again. Particularly the last week.  I've made over €20 from trading French Open tennis, €6 on the Monaco GP and a few Euros on random football. Previously Grand Slams have not been very kind to me but this one has been different so far. Managed to find good value quite early in the markets and then been along for the ride towards lower odds, that's always nice. Thought I'd catch a loss on the Sock-Busta match where I backed Sock at 1.42 only to watch him trade in the high 48's before dropping back dramatically during the last few hours before the match. Could get out at 1.41 so I kind of misread the market but still got out ok. Apart from that trading has been undramatic. During the month of May my trading bank has increased with €55 to €960. Up €260 during 2015. In total that's a 37% increase from the €700 I started the year with and with no losing months. Have to be pleased so far.

League One Trades

Three good trades today. Some new motivation this month and it pays off.

€3 on Swindon, should have been five but I closed it too soon
€10 on Bristol C, best trade for a long time.
€3 on Preston, decent trade in a volatile market.

No losses so far in May.

Trades

Two good ones today again. 7 Eur on Shrewsbury, 5 on Burton. League two is kind to me.

Monthly trading report

A quite slow April in the Betfair Trading. I made €25 to take the account from €880 to €905 which is a slower increase than before but still a quite solid result. I had one trade that resulted in a fairly big loss but overall I managed to control risk quite well and exit trades that were about to start moving in the wrong direction before they turned deep red. May has started off well with three tennis matches I entered last night and exited with €6 profit this moring. They will be played today.