Kelly Match Gefle v. Norrköping

Busy day. Poor weather means lots of time to check out matches.

Gefle - Norrköping (2) 15:- @ 2,50

RESULT: 1-2  +22,5:-

Videoton v. Debrecen

Odds movements suggest home team could face a tougher task than expected. I'll lay at 2.00 before kick off.

UPDATE: Had to read a book to my daughter and closed the trade with a 1:- profit.

Trabzonspor v Mersin & Atalanta v Parma

Mina analyser av oddsrörelserna före match på de här båda kamperna säger att den turkiska matchen bör bli en målrik hemmaseger. Backar därför med små insatser hemmalaget och över 2.5 och hoppas på ett ganska tidigt ledningsmål för Trabzonspor.

Atalanta mot Parma bör bli en ganska avvaktande tillställning mellan två formsvaga lag. Backar krysset och hoppas att det fortfarande står noll noll efter 20-25 minuter eller så.

Stängde tidigt överspelet på Trabzonspor. Det gick snabbt norrut och resultatet blev -10:-
Atalanta har fortfarande i 60e minuten 0-0 och jag har cashat in en vinst. Först en liten summa efter 22 minuter och jag tog ytterligare en kort position i 50e som avvecklades i 55e. Total vinst 5:-
Trabzonspor gjorde 1-0 i 54e varvid jag kunde casha in 13:-.

Totalt för livetraden idag  +8:- vilket är ytterligt patetiskt men just nu är det lärpengar för det här är helt nya marker för mig.

UPDATE: Trabzonspor won 3-1 so odds movement were totally correct pre-match.
Atalanta won 1-0 after a '90 minute goal.

Kelly-match

I'll try to be more frequent with match updates. What I trade and what I include in my Kelly experiment.

Today's match is:
Italian Serie B Spezia v. Catania (1) 11:- @ 2.60

Result: W 3-0

A small update

Kelly is performing under expectations. Down 2.5% so far. Not a huge amount of games but I thought I would do better.

Trading has been uneventful. Last weeks ended in +-0 results. This one has started about the same way with some small losses and some equally small wins. I have a few good ideas for the weekend soccer matches but I thought that last week as well and ended up burning all my tennis profits from early in the week.

W29

After a few weeks off it's time for a trading report again. First week back on the job netted a €12 profit which is quite on average what I should gain. No major dramas really.

The Kelly project has started off inconclusive. I'm currently with a 2% negative ROI. Won 50% of my bets at 2.42 so I'm considering if the staking method is at fault. With even stakes I would be up. I'll give this staking method another week or two and then I'll evaluate.

Introducing the Kelly Project

Over the last few weeks I haven't been very active, not on the blog, not trading odds. I haven't been sleeping my days away rather researching a new project I find quite interesting. I'll call it the "Kelly Project" after mathematician John Kelly who formulated a theory on how bettors should manage their bankrolls. A staking theory where the amount wagered is calculated from the suggested edge the bettor thinks he has over the market. Other people have explained this better and I have tried this in the past. The only problem is that even if I believe I know a thing or two about odds after a few years of trading on Betfair I haven't been sure enough of my edge. Which is what I have been researching.

Betfair claims to have the most effective betting market and Pinnacle claims to have the sharpest bettors tuning in their odds. That means that their odds should be as close to the real possibility of an event to occur as one could ever hope to get. If they say odds on team A are 1,60 I should be fairly sure the probability of team A to win should be 62.5%. This is where Kelly come in. From my research I've noticed that fairly frequently other more "casual" bookies don't adjust their odds enough, or fast enough when markets move. If team A starts a 1.70 favorite most bookies will end up around 1.70. In the final hours before kick off lots of money enters the market and can distort odds. Pinny and Betfair usually adjust very quickly and team A could very well start a 1.60 favorite while some bookies still offer 1.70. There's the edge the Kelly formula needs. In this (rather extreme) case my edge is 7% and if my bankroll is 500 I should bet 10% of my bankroll on this selection. This will be larger or smaller depending on the edge I believe I have. So in theory I should be able to use this staking method and value odds to beat the bookies.

I've decided to risk 500SEK (€55) to try out this theory. If it works it works if it doesn't it's no big loss. And to be honest I've taken some money from the bookies' new account/first deposit bonuses over the last weeks so actually they are paying for this experiment themselves. For this I'm very grateful. :)

I'll report back how it works out and I will be back to odds trading this week as well. Already secured €5 on some Tuesday League One matches.