Leicester - QPR

Started a trade on Leicester this morning. Odds were avaliable at 1.98 with Betfair and most bookies dropped their odds to 1.90ish. Currently trading at 1.94-1.95 but I hope to see odds closer to 1.90 before kick off. Should be a profitable morning.

UPDATE: Well that's one of the easiest €8 I've ever earned. Layed off all my stake at 1.92.

Blackburn - Yeovil

Blackburn are in good home form. Good wins over Ipswich and QPR lately and those are two good teams. Away draws v. decent opposition reinforces the case for Blackburn's good form. Yeovil on the other hand are firmly stuck at the bottom of the table. They score the occasional surprise win or draw but is not a very strong team. I've backed Blackburn quite heavy at 1.67. Should odds go up a click or two more I'll back them more. Come match day I strongly suspect this will be one of the favorite bets of the casual punters. Strong, well known home team @ 1.65ish v. the strongest relegation candidates in the league. Yeah I can se a strong backing of Blackburn happen on Friday and I will have my lay money ready in the mid-low sixties.

UPDATE: Yep, Cashed out a 7 euro profit.

Wigan - Reading

I have taken a position on Wigan for this match. €300 on the home team. They have won their last three v. Reading. This is a very important match for both teams as they need to secure the last place for PL-playoffs. Wigan are on 67 points, Reading, Brighton and Ipswich on 64 each closely followed by very in-form Bournemouth on 62. I think Wigan have the necessary qualities and they have very recent PL experience. All this together with HFA adds up to a home win IMO and I expect the match will trade lower than my 1.99 during the later part of the week.

UPDATE: Indeed so! Layed off for a €4 profit @ 1.96 this morning. 

W10

Another good week which gave me a €20 profit. I'll have to start increasing my weekly targets now that my bank has doubled in 6 months time since I started this project. Best trade was on Brentford-Crawley which gave close to €8. Then there were lots of trades that gave from €1 to €3.5 but the big gain again this week was to have no losing trades and that's not bad after being matched in 11 markets during the week.

Sheff U - Rotherham

I got €50 matched on Rotherham at 2.52 last night, that was 1/3 of my total stake but I guess that's good enough. I placed a lay at 2.46 before I went to bed and had it matched during the night. Small €1,5 profit.
 

Brentford - Crawley Town

Should be a comfortable home win here. Brentford found form again last match after two disappointing draws. Crawley lost at home. Despite this Brentford was priced at 1.64 last night (Pinnacle was 1.57) and that seemed atleast four points too high. This match should be traded in the 1.50's. I have a lay placed at 1.58 I hope to have taken during the day. Trading is now around 1.60-61.

UPDATE: Followed the price down and closed the trade for a €8.5 profit. Good one! Now trading at 1.50! So I was spot on with the analysis but closed the trade a little too soon, but as I have said before. Greed is dangerous.

W9

Slightly less successful week this one. Got myself burnt with a stupid league 2 game and lost €5 when a favorite drifted for no apparent reason and then there wasn't enough liquidity to get out at a decent price even if I kept my stake lower than usual. Lesson learned, no more L2 football. Championship and L1 have been my most profitable leagues so that's where I'll do most of my business in the future. Still managed a €8 profit so that's ok.

To start W10 I've already completed a trade on Watford - Leeds worth €4.
I had a smallish stake taken on Bournemouth - Reading that resulted in €1.5
I'm matched for my full €200 stake on Leicester - Brighton and hope to lay Leicester at lower odds.