Trading report June

This will be a very short post because nothing much happened during June. The football leagues I usually trade, the English and Swedish leagues are on summer holidays so no matches to work with. Tennis is also a little complicated because they are doing a month on grass and since that's a surface rarely used it's much more difficult to get enough data to make predictions on where odds should be and find an advantage in the market.

I've added about €10 to the trading bank which now stands at €980 going in to July.

This weekend it's Formula 1 from Britain so stay tuned for my insights.

F1 Austria Pt 2

FP3 Nasr - Ericsson @ 1,45 Car trouble for Nasr then rain

Q Williams - Lotus @ 1,30
Q FI - Toro Rosso - @ 1,65

F1 Austria

Two bets H-H for Quallies so far:

Kvyat - Ricciardo @ 1.92
Nasr - Ericsson @ 1.35

Will probably be a few more tomorrow when more odds are out. Looks quite close so far as is expected from this track. Pole looks wide open with Vettel quick for Ferrari. Rosberg looking to be the faster Mercedes but Hamilton hasn't had a mistake free fast lap recorded yet so difficult to judge his true pace. Williams scored a surprise front row lockout here last year. Might have to wait until after P3 to know where everyone is.

Race

I've traded Hamilton back and forth a few times, backing 1.42, laying 1.41 which has increased trading profits for the race from 1 to 5 Euros. Now I'm all green and will not do anything more, just sit down and watch the race and hope for a double McLaren DNF and some more cash.

After Quallies

Settled Bets:

€10 Hamilton @ 1.85 to win FP1
€20 Hamilton @ 1.55 to win Q
€10 Nasr @ 1.30 over Ericsson in Q
€10 Hulkenberg @ 1.50 over Perez in Q
€10 Hulkenberg @ 1.50 over Sainz in Q
€10 F1 @ 1.60 over Toro Rosso in Q
€10 Lotus @ 1.50 over Red Bull in Q 
€10 Lotus @ 3.25 over Williams in Q

=  €20,5

Open Bets:
Alonso to DNF @ 3.00
Button to DNF @ 3.00

Qualifying team bets

Lotus v. Williams @ 3,25
Lotus v. Red Bull @ 1,50
Force India v. Toro Rosso @ 1,60

F1 bets update after FP2

 My prediction                                                       Result (based on avg best laptime of both cars)

1. Mercedes - Hamilton to beat Rosberg - P1 - Hamilton
2. Ferrari - Vettel to beat Räikkönen - P2 - Vettel
3. Williams - Bottas to beat Massa (narrowly) P4 - 1-1
4. Red Bull - Ricciardo to beat Kvyat - P6 - Kvyat
5. Lotus - Grosjean to beat Maldonado - P3 - 1-1
6. Toro Rosso - Sainz to bet Verstappen- P7 - 1-1
7. McLaren - Alonso to beat Button - P8 - Alonso
8. FI - Perez to beat Hulkenberg (narrowly) - P5 - Hulkenberg
9. Sauber - Nasr to beat Ericsson - P9 - 1-1
10. Manor - Stevens to beat Mehri - P10 - Mehri

Doesn't seem too impressive so far but P2 was washed away and that could change things. I'll evaluate myself properly after Quallies. Seems I underestimated the Lotus cars and the F1 and gave too much credit to the Red Bulls. Apart from that it's quite close. 4 teams have drivers split 1-1 between the two FP. I've been right on 4 and wrong on 2.

I've placed another bet. Hulkenberg to out qualify Perez @ 1.50. The german has looked really strong so far. So much that I put some money where my mouth is.

I won the Hamilton FP1 bet @ 1.85

I had a very small sum matched on the Betfair trade and have closed it out with €1 profit. Not what I hoped for but when you're not matched there's not much to do.

F1 bets

I've been following F1 for a long time, over 15 years now and feel I got a fair idea about how it works. I haven't tried seriously though to make money from it with normal bets before until this season really. I have traded occasionally usually backing or laying a driver before FP and trading out before Quallies. A low risk strategy of you sort of know what you're doing. I've had some luck with my bets so far so I thought I'd share them.

First I have a trade going on where I want to back Hamilton to win the race @ 1.75. It's not matched yet but I obviously hope it will be. This is a track Hamilton loves, weather should be nice which reduces the chance for odd events to disrupt my plans. Cool temperatures are expected which should help the already dominant Mercedes cars, while hotter temperatures should allow Ferrari to sneak closer.

I've also placed a bet @ 1.55 with Betsson for Hamilton to be on pole, and a smaller one for him to win FP1 @ 1.85.

Despite hoping otherwise I've also bet on Nasr to out-qualify my compatriot Ericsson @ 1.30.

Unibet had some interesting offers for 3.00 on both Alonso and Button not to finish the race. Double finish in the chronically unreliable McLaren Honda looks very unlikely and if one fails to finish I'm all good and should both retire I'm in for some nice cash. Not unlikely since this is a power circuit that should put some strain on the fragile power plant. It's also tough on brakes and barriers are close so there should be retirements in the race. Button and Alonso being world champions and all are top class drivers not expected to crash but the risk is always they could get tangled up in someone else's mistake.

I'll be back with some HH bets after the first day of practise. That should have some pecking order sorted out within and between teams.

I expect:
Mercedes - Hamilton to beat Rosberg
Ferrari - Vettel to beat Räikkönen
Williams - Bottas to beat Massa (narrowly)
Red Bull - Ricciardo to beat Kvyat
Lotus - Grosjean to beat Maldonado
Toro Rosso - Sainz to bet Verstappen
McLaren - Alonso to beat Button
FI - Perez to beat Hulkenberg (narrowly)
Sauber - Nasr to beat Ericsson
Manor - Stevens to beat Mehri