Volandri - Elias

Took a bet on Elias at 1.74 on Monday. Market seemed to like the young Portuguese v a very out of form Volandri. Match being scheduled on Wednesday to allow Elias time to get back from South-America also helps. Just greened out at 1.65.

W12

This is what I earned this week. Best week so far. Graph is tending up nicely. :)

Valencia - Atletico

Took a position on Atletico yesterday at 1.84. After an initial scare up to 1.87 it dropped back down just as expected. Just over an hour before kick off it's trading at 1.69 but I think it can drop even more in the last 60 minutes. Will keep a close look at the market and get ready to collect a big reward. I sold off half my position at 1.71 just to cover for a recoil but it doesn't look like there will be one today. Target 1.65.

UPDATE: Ok target not quite reached. Closed at 1.68 and wins €16 no matter how the match ends. 

More Tennis than Soccer

I've already started moving towards more tennis trades than soccer. Many leagues are already decided despite a few more games to play and I could never make a fair assessment about how markets would price games that doesn't matter to either team, or just one of the teams. I cashed in €18 on Bolton - Leicester early in the week and another €2 on Reading. Then I've had 10 tennis trades with a total of €13 in profits. 8 good ones with the best one being Rosol - Simon (€5) and the worst Meusburger - Oprandi (-2) the rest of the in between. Might be so that it won't  be so difficult to maintain a decent weekly profit with just tennis after all.

Bolton - Leicester

Leicester will secure the Championship title if they win today. They will be 7 pts ahead of Burnley with 2 games left to play. Bolton have decent form but played a disappointing draw v. Charlton last game. Table wise the home team are in the middle of nowhere. Too far off to reach playoffs and well clear of the relegation zone. Motivation and class should give Leicester advantage here. I managed to get some juice backed at 2.36 last night which was very generous. Now trading at 2.26 but I think it can go down below 2.20 before kick off so I'll monitor the market today and try to secure an even bigger win.

UPDATE: Closed at 2.18. Wins 20 euros.

W11

Had quite a big loss on Crewe today. Thought they would beat Colchester but the market thought otherwise (and was right). Had quite decent wins on Wolves and Peterborough though so summarizing Easter Weekend it's still a €12 profit but it should have been much better. English football season is coming to an end now so it will be more difficult to maintain profits trading just tennis over the summer, possibly some world cup football as well but there's much less data to rely on so that's not going to be easy. Swedish football is an option since I kind of know the teams but liquidity is usually too poor even for a small fish like myself.

Leicester - QPR

Started a trade on Leicester this morning. Odds were avaliable at 1.98 with Betfair and most bookies dropped their odds to 1.90ish. Currently trading at 1.94-1.95 but I hope to see odds closer to 1.90 before kick off. Should be a profitable morning.

UPDATE: Well that's one of the easiest €8 I've ever earned. Layed off all my stake at 1.92.

Blackburn - Yeovil

Blackburn are in good home form. Good wins over Ipswich and QPR lately and those are two good teams. Away draws v. decent opposition reinforces the case for Blackburn's good form. Yeovil on the other hand are firmly stuck at the bottom of the table. They score the occasional surprise win or draw but is not a very strong team. I've backed Blackburn quite heavy at 1.67. Should odds go up a click or two more I'll back them more. Come match day I strongly suspect this will be one of the favorite bets of the casual punters. Strong, well known home team @ 1.65ish v. the strongest relegation candidates in the league. Yeah I can se a strong backing of Blackburn happen on Friday and I will have my lay money ready in the mid-low sixties.

UPDATE: Yep, Cashed out a 7 euro profit.

Wigan - Reading

I have taken a position on Wigan for this match. €300 on the home team. They have won their last three v. Reading. This is a very important match for both teams as they need to secure the last place for PL-playoffs. Wigan are on 67 points, Reading, Brighton and Ipswich on 64 each closely followed by very in-form Bournemouth on 62. I think Wigan have the necessary qualities and they have very recent PL experience. All this together with HFA adds up to a home win IMO and I expect the match will trade lower than my 1.99 during the later part of the week.

UPDATE: Indeed so! Layed off for a €4 profit @ 1.96 this morning. 

W10

Another good week which gave me a €20 profit. I'll have to start increasing my weekly targets now that my bank has doubled in 6 months time since I started this project. Best trade was on Brentford-Crawley which gave close to €8. Then there were lots of trades that gave from €1 to €3.5 but the big gain again this week was to have no losing trades and that's not bad after being matched in 11 markets during the week.

Sheff U - Rotherham

I got €50 matched on Rotherham at 2.52 last night, that was 1/3 of my total stake but I guess that's good enough. I placed a lay at 2.46 before I went to bed and had it matched during the night. Small €1,5 profit.
 

Brentford - Crawley Town

Should be a comfortable home win here. Brentford found form again last match after two disappointing draws. Crawley lost at home. Despite this Brentford was priced at 1.64 last night (Pinnacle was 1.57) and that seemed atleast four points too high. This match should be traded in the 1.50's. I have a lay placed at 1.58 I hope to have taken during the day. Trading is now around 1.60-61.

UPDATE: Followed the price down and closed the trade for a €8.5 profit. Good one! Now trading at 1.50! So I was spot on with the analysis but closed the trade a little too soon, but as I have said before. Greed is dangerous.

W9

Slightly less successful week this one. Got myself burnt with a stupid league 2 game and lost €5 when a favorite drifted for no apparent reason and then there wasn't enough liquidity to get out at a decent price even if I kept my stake lower than usual. Lesson learned, no more L2 football. Championship and L1 have been my most profitable leagues so that's where I'll do most of my business in the future. Still managed a €8 profit so that's ok.

To start W10 I've already completed a trade on Watford - Leeds worth €4.
I had a smallish stake taken on Bournemouth - Reading that resulted in €1.5
I'm matched for my full €200 stake on Leicester - Brighton and hope to lay Leicester at lower odds.